Kerry Electoral Vote Simulation Model Trend - July

[TruthIsAll]

Based on state poll data from electoral-vote.com 

Expect the upcoming bounce to take him to 54% and 350 EV


Kerry	Proj.	EV
7/2	52.42	330
7/4	52.17	322 
7/7	52.29	320
7/8	52.35	323
7/10	52.30	320

7/12	52.25	319 < Low
7/13	52.48	319
7/14	52.91	332
7/15	52.85	332
7/17	52.92	333

7/20	52.83	331
7/21	52.92	338
7/24	53.16	338 <High
7/26	52.86	326
7/28	52.68	325

7/29	52.60	322
7/30	52.56	324

[TruthIsAll]

1. Why the simulation method is more reliable...

It is not affected by small day-to-day variations in any given state.

For instance, my results are hardly affected if Kerry goes from +1 to -1 in Florida; the probability of a win is still around 40%.

Other polls will give the FL 27 EV from Kerry to Bush. Thats a 54 point swing.

[elperromagico]

2. How much of an influence do you see third parties having?

How much do you think they would skew your simulation, if at all?

[TruthIsAll]

3. No skewing at all. Check the latest post of 7/30.

I show Kerry win probabilities depending on his capturing 50-90% of the undecided/other/3rd party (Nader) vote.


Kerry should get 70% of the "other" vote.

I believe Nader et al will get 1.5% this time.

So if there are 10% "other", I expect Kerry to get a minimum 6.5, Bush 2 and 1.5 remain "other."

[elperromagico]

4. What are the historical trends for undecideds?

I know that they break for the challenger, but in what percentages in each election? I think I read read in one of your threads that the low was McGovern, who received 60%, and the high was Reagan, who received 80%.