Great analysis of Newsweek "baby" bounce.

[DemMother]

"Before We Pronounce on the Bounce, Let's Measure It Properly Shall We?

Newsweek is first out of the box with a poll and story on Kerry's bounce from the convention. There's just one slight problem: the data they report in the story don't really measure Kerry's bounce at all...

In short, Newsweek's analysis is totally bogus. Before we pronounce on the bounce, I suggest we wait until we've got some data that actually measures it."


Read the rest at:

http://emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/index.php

[Must_B_Free]

1. That the new Al Gore attack" No Bounce"

Drudge is reporting a measly 4 pts. shows a picture suggesting a "rained on parade".

They are trying to convince us that Kerry failed.

[Cha]

6. They won't convince us but they might convince some

likely brainwashed sheeps who can't think for themselves and haven't gotten the clue yet about what the media is doing for their future tax cuts.

[Catt03]

2. So who do we rely on for the real numbers?

Is there a polling resource (or resouces) that is reliable and if so who do we watch for?

[DemMother]

3. I think the Newsweek poll does reflect some real numbers...

It's just that it mixes apples and oranges (before and after the speech), and compares results with a much older poll, so that it's impossible to judge what the real bounce is. The numbers on Friday (and then maybe on Saturday, Sunday, if they go that far) might paint a more accurate picture. Donkey Rising also wonders what motives, if any, Newsweek would have to realize a confusing and misleading poll.

[LoZoccolo]

11. Non-tinfoil-hat motive.

Trying to put it out first.

[NWHarkness]

4. Ruy Texeira is the best poll analyst there is.

I'm glad he's on our side.

[Cha]

5. Thanks for this article, Demmother!

It's superb! Too bad it won't get as widely read as the Newsweak "baby bounce" article.

[VolcanoJen]

7. You've got to look beyond the Vote Kerry or Bush numbers, imo.

The big picture lies within that Newsweek article.

More voters now find Kerry more "likeable" than Bush (the "beer question," if you will). More voters find Kerry more honest than Bush (the "restore honor/integrity question", if you will).

We shouldn't get too wrapped up in the simple, top number. The numbers buried within the article offer NO HOPE WHATSOEVER for the Bush/Rove team.

[Arugula Latte]

8. Remember a few months ago

when there was widespread publicity that more people would rather spend time with Bush at a BBQ or some such dumbass question?

Wanna make a bet this finding showing Kerry on top in likeability will be buried?

[VolcanoJen]

9. No, Oregonian, I don't think I'll take that bet.

}(

Of course the "beer" question will be buried. From here on out.

[struggle4progress]

10. Kerry Stable, Bush Down After Convention

CPOD) Jul. 31, 2004 – The Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards holds the lead in the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Zogby America. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic challengers, while 43 per cent would support Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.

Eight per cent of respondents are undecided.

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3611


Kerry ain't bounced much yet ... but Boosh done fell.