WTF happened with Gallup's (already questionable) poll numbers?!?

[Brotherjohn]

Yesterday, we were all talking about how they were the only poll showing Kerry behind, by 3 pts, i think (50-47%), and that this was using their "Likely Voters" category (Kerry in fact was LEADING by 3pts using the "Registered Voters" numbers).

Now, today, I look at RealClearPolitics.com (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html) and see that USAToday/Gallup has Bush UP BY 5pts in the sdame poll! (also "LV")

I went to USAToday's article saying Bush got a "reverse" bounce (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-08-02-poll-cover_x.htm), and although the article mentions something about Kerry's support falling 2 points from the week before the Convention and Bush's rising 5pts, the numbers in their actual poll don't show this (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm), and I don't in fact see the "LV" numbers anywhere.

It looks like they "updated" their poll in one day (italics results seem to be July 30-31, whereas the "new improved" results are July 30-Aug 1), which of course hurts Kerry. But nothing here agrees with the RealClearPolitics Bush "lead" of 6%.

What gives??

[WI_DEM]

1. Gallup is way off base and we should just dismiss their poll

While other pollsters have shown a minimal bounce for Kerry at the convention, this poll is the only one which gives Bush a lead. Their poll is faulty. Kerry is leading anywhere from 2-8 points in all other polls I've seen.

[displacedtexan]

2. As of yesterday...

Wolf Blitzer was actually reporting the real Gallup numbers:

LV
Bush 50%
Kerry 45%

RV
Kerry 50%
Bush 45%

Everyone knows that Registered Voters, not Likely Voters, represent the real picture.

Likely Voters = White, middle class suburbanites who may or may not have voted in the last presidential election (there is no way to verify; pollsters rely on the honesty of respondents).

[lancdem]

3. I think they're tied among registered voters

Bush's lead is among LVs, which is a crapshoot this far in advance of the election.