Francis Strike Probability and Wind Range Map

[KoKo]

Apprehensive, anxious Floridians wait for Hurricane Frances

By TIM REYNOLDS
Associated Press Writer

The entire city of Miami Beach, with its Art Deco hotels and glitzy nightclubs and restaurants, was under an evacuation order in Miami-Dade County for a total of about 320,000 people in coastal and low-lying areas. Statewide, more than 1 million people were under evacuation orders.

Patricia Thomas, 40, of Vero Beach, had trouble finding gas for her BMW coupe because no stations had premium fuel. "I just want to fill up my car and get far away from here," she said, her eyes puffy and red. "I'm mad, I'm frustrated, I'm scared. I'm not in a good place right now."Jenny Stimpson, 32, joined hundreds of others at a Wal-Mart in Stuart hunting for last-minute supplies but could only find ice. She said she bought 25 bags because "everywhere you go, you better grab something cause it won't be there if you go back later."

Supermarkets along the state's Atlantic coast were stripped of bottled water and canned goods. Long lines formed outside home supply stores across the state, with dozens of people desperately hoping for a chance to buy scarce plywood or generators. A delivery truck's arrival was met with raucous applause in Palm Beach County.

As Steve Missimer waited with about 300 people at a Home Depot to buy last-minute supplies, he summed up his storm philosophy: "You ride down the highway at 145 miles an hour and see how fast stuff flies at you. That's what this storm is going to be like. It's not something you want to try to ride out."

Reservation clerks of sold-out hotels groaned with each telephone ring, knowing someone seeking a room was on the other end. And demand for gas was so great some stations were pumped dry.Traffic was starting to back up on Interstate 95, the main north-south highway along the state's east coast. It stretched for at least 5 miles in Brevard County, east of Orlando, but was moving slowly.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/gen/ap/FL_Hurricane_Frances_Florida.html

[Cheswick2.0]

1. the latest projections I have seen

have the hurricane going directly over Stuart Florida which is at the little inlet you can see right by lake Okeechobee. That means that St Lucie, Palm Beach and Broward counties will be greatly effected. I have all kinds of bad feelings about this. There are miles and miles of new developments in this area. Wood frame and drywall monstrosities I expect will all to go down like match stick homes.

[KoKo]

3. Many of us (including me) have friends and relatives there...it's awful...

and with gas running out, it's going to be hard for those who want to evacuate to do it. And, where to evacuate to? Looks like no place is a good place with a storm this big.

I'm doing a lot of praying...:-(

[Cheswick2.0]

8. a lot of people will go to shelters further inland

hopefully they will hold up.
My son told me his father stepmother and twin sisters are going to a shelther. But they live in Stuart so they may not have a home left to go back ot when it is all over.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

27. OMG my elder auntie lives in Stuart in a senior citizen trailer park

[Skarbrowe]

2. Thank you!!!

That makes it so much more clear to me. Unfortunetaly, it makes it clear to me that I'm in the wrong frickin place. I'll just say that if it hits one of those places, it's a direct hit for me.

[Ripley]

4. Have the Keyes completely evacuated?

And where do they go? No place to hide from this one!

[Blue Wally]

6. No

Monroe County (the keys) made the decision not to evacuate since the keys were less likely to be hit than the mainland where people would be evacuating to.

[kayell]

5. My daughter and granddaughter canceled their labor day trip to see me

The return trip would have put them traveling through western and southwestern GA in the storm if it follows the most likely path. Even that far on shore this could be a very damaging and dangerous storm.

Stay safe all.

[chookie]

7. JEEZ! Okeechobee will take a hit. Very bad.

It's an enormous body of water. Hit by hurricane force winds, the devastation it can cause is horrific.

Zora Neale Hurston describes such a hurricane (1928 -- one of the worst in FL history) in "Their Eyes Were Watching God." Terrifying. She called it, "the day the lake moved."

"The novel's title is taken from Chapter 18, as the hurricane strikes the Everglades. Tea Cake  and Janie "sat in company with the others in other shanties, their eyes straining against
crude walls and their souls asking if He meant to measure their puny might against His. They  seemed to be staring at the dark, but their eyes were watching God." (from a Palm Beach website)

[KoKo]

10. That's a good description "their eyes were watching God." I've been

through two category 2's and I never want to go through another one. And, I saw what Hugo did in Charleston which was a 5 because I have relatives there. We will just have to keep hoping that something changes on this...

[hatrack]

9. 9/2 2:00 PM AST - Winds 145, Heading WNW, 410 Miles From Coast

EDIT

HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALL THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST...VERY
NEAR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AND 410 MILES...660
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRANCES REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS JUST REPORTED
86 MPH WINDS...139 KM/HR. LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 949
MB...28.02 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/021738.shtml?

[strategery blunder]

14. It was 937 mb last night--hopefully it will weaken a little b4 landfall?

I'm sure praying for that.:scared:

[Corgigal]

11. another link

I posted it on another Frances topic but I should be here.

Java website with forecasting predication

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/FRANCES_graphics.shtml

[KoKo]

12. Here's a Time Track Map for Storm's progression/"Palm Beach Post..".

which has really good info on their site including "how to put up plywood." Good photo's and tracking maps with stories about what's going on locally. CAUTION: I imagine these times can change with updated forcasts throughout the night and tomorrow..

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/

[KoKo]

13. Weather Channel's 4:00p.m. forecast says Francis has slowed somewhat

which might jog it a little farther North, but not by enough to say Miami is out of the woods. Still looks pretty much on the track they forecasted at the last update, but the slowing supposedly means more rain.

[KoKo]

15. Latest from "Weather Channel" has wind speed lowering more, track

pretty much the same...but if wind speed has lowered it down to a 4 that's good news!

[KoKo]

16. 2.5 Million Told to Clear Out of Florida (Latest from Palm Beach Post)

Hurricane Frances menaces Florida; 2.5 million people told to clear out

By TIM REYNOLDS
Associated Press Writer
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/gen/ap/FL_Hurricane_Frances_Florida.html

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. — Residents and tourists in cars, trucks and campers clogged highways along the state's Atlantic coast Thursday, fleeing inland as mighty Hurricane Frances threatened Florida with a second battering in three weeks.

About 2.5 million residents were told to clear out ahead of what could be the most powerful storm to hit Florida in more than a decade. Others in the 300-mile stretch covered by a hurricane warning rushed to fortify their homes with plywood and storm shutters, and to buy water, gas and canned food. "I've got half my house in my car," said Doris Johnson, a Stuart retiree who waited outside a shelter with her husband, carrying a pile of blankets, pillows, and water. "I just want it over with, and hope and pray no one gets hurt."

The evacuation is the largest in state history, surpassing the 1.3 million people urged to leave during Hurricane Floyd's near-miss in 1999, Gov. Jeb Bush said.Already a Category 4 storm with 140-mph winds and the potential to push ashore waves up to 15 feet high, Frances could make itself felt in the state by midmorning Friday. Its core, with the strongest winds, was expected to hit land late Friday or early Saturday.

At 5 p.m. EDT, the hurricane was centered 375 miles southeast of West Palm Beach and was moving northwest at close to 10 mph. Its top sustained winds dropped from about 145 mph earlier Friday, which forecasters believe is just a minor fluctuation typical with large storms.

This could be the first time since 1950 that two major storms have hit Florida so close together. On Aug. 13, Hurricane Charley splintered billions of dollars worth of homes, knocked out power to hundreds of thousands and killed 27 people when it tore across the state.

Charley's example — and Frances' tremendous size, covering an area the size of Texas — prodded people like Linda Silvestri, 58, to get out of the way. Silvestri, who lives in Palm Bay on the central Florida coast, headed inland to Gainesville to be near a hospital because she just received a kidney transplant.

[KoKo]

17. Geeze within 20 minutes of each other CBS Rather says storm weakens

while he has Repug bands and Convention site blaring in his background..and he's got some guy from noaa saying the storm won't be as bad as Andrew and then 15 minutes later I go to Weather Channel and they are saying it's still bad...looking more "raggedy" but that the destruction will be much more widespread than Charley or Andrew because of the size of the storm?

:tinfoilhat: CBS is hoping Florida turns into hear the "Chimp's Speech" so they downplay the storm? Or, is Weather Channel exaggerating?

I go to the "Palm Beach Post" online Newspaper site and they are preparing for the worst! So, I got three opinions here. What gives?

[Vickers]

19. Of the ones you mention, I'd trust the Palm Beach Post the most

Hey, I'm a subscriber.

:P

[Jacobin]

18. Here is a "raw data" projection map, using ALL models

A little freaky. They must toss out the outliers to come up with the most probable course.

But it does give you an idea of how unpredictable they can be. They can really fool you at the last minute, so please Floridians, better safe than sorry.

[KoKo]

20. Wow! Looks like "multi-grain spaghetti...but look how it splits with half

of the hits going further north, and the other half just about where most forecasters are predicting...Amazing...

[MGKrebs]

21. Jeezus, I thought that said "France strike probability".

I need to STEP AWAY FROM THE TINFOIL.

[KoKo]

22. ROFL...must be why I have to keep "pumping" this thread with new info

wondering if anyone cares....They all think it's about FRANCE!! Sheesh...I should have tried to do a better subject line. HURRICANE FRANCIS in Full Caps and the rest in lower case? :D

[Eurobabe]

23. lady your beemer won't die from one tank

of regular gas. Geez...

[kymar57]

24. God forbid

that her poor BeBe must dine with the unwashed chevys and fords

[Raven Macabre]

25. Frances is bad news

But what about after? A friend of mine and her family are living down in florida, by the good grace of god, they make it through charly. guess what? Charly kicks off some tornados or something and they get pulverized..I hope frances fizzles out.

[KoKo]

26. At 9:39 est. Francis STILL Category 4 Hurricane...

Just latest update on Weather Channel.

[KoKo]

28. There's some hope...it's getting raggedy....still a four but might weaken

somewhat because a front is going to giving it some trouble. Threat is tornados and flooding because of a slow down. And, the gas situation in Southern Fla. is bad. Upper Fla, is okay so far with gas supplies.

[KoKo]

29. Latest from Palm Beach Post: Francis Slows Down arrival Delayed..but

Frances likely won't hit until late tonight
By Eliot Kleinberg
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Friday, September 3

Frances, stalled and staggered but stubborn and still way too unpredictable, probably won't now be a factor in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast before tonight, forecasters said early today.
At 8 a.m. Saturday, the storm was about 250 miles east-southeast of Palm Beach. The storm, weakening Thursday night from 140 to 125 mph as it rolled through the Bahamas, had been expected to bring tropical storm force winds -- of at least 39 mph -- to the Florida coast as early as this afternoon, but it has slowed down considerably, meterologist Jim Lushine said at the National Hurricane Center near Miami.

He said tropical storm force winds probably will not arrive before late tonight and hurricane force winds -- at least 74 mph -- wouldn't arrive before late Saturday or even early Sunday.

The storm could still make a westward turn before landfall, which would suggest a greater threat to Palm Beach County, but forecasters said that probably would be temporary. While the Vero Beach-Sebastian area continues to be the most likely target, forecasters insist the storm can still do a lot of things, and could still strike anywhere in the hurricane warning area -- from southern Miami-Dade County to the Daytona Beach area. On top of that, hurricane force winds extend 80 miles and tropical storm force winds 185 miles, so a wide swath of the state will be in play regardless of Frances' eventual landfall.

Rain is quickly becoming as big a potential ingredient for catastrophe as wind, Lushine said. Because Frances has slowed from 14-16 mph down to about 7 mph, and could slow further to perhaps 4 mph, it could slog through Florida, pounding the peninsula for 12 to 18 hours and raining on it for more than 20 hours. Forecasters warned of a foot to a foot and a half of rain, with up to 20 inches predicted at spots.

The worst of the wind and rain would arrive Saturday afternon and evening, Lushine said.The slowing also makes the eventual track more unpredictable.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/news/epaper/2004/09/03/frances_main.html