October Surprise

[HFishbine]

Yearly lows on the major stock market indexes.

[punpirate]

1. That does them no good...

... the only way to truly influence the market is a) manipulating external events, or b) getting to a significant number of firms running large trades through computers.

The other issue is that, historically, October is normally the month with more selling than any other. It's going to drop some, anyway.

But, no, forget that. If anything, it would push votes in Kerry's direction--not a great many, but some.

Count on this, however--by mid-October, whatever one thing in Kerry's attack which is, according to internal polling, doing the most damage to Bush will be counter-attacked.

[HFishbine]

3. Who says an October Surprise can't benefit Kerry?

That's my point.

I'm no expert, but I'm getting better at technical analysis of stock market flucuations. I would never say I can "predict" the future of the market, but it is possible to recognize turning points and trends. The market is turning down and looks like it could head to new lows for the year -- OUR October Suprise.

[punpirate]

4. Well, that was not the point made...

... today, October Surprise indicates a dirty trick done to influence an election. Creating a new definition of it without adequate explanation is merely confusing.

And, no, a drop in the market will not substantially help Kerry.

[HFishbine]

5. Sorry

I didn't consult the punpirate dictionary. I didn't realize there was no room for wordplay, and yes a drop in the market will help Kerry.

[punpirate]

8. Always consult the punpirate dictionary....

It's an authoritative source, especially the latest edition. :P

[HFishbine]

9. I've learned my lesson

Will do. Is it on Amazon? :pals:

[punpirate]

11. I don't think so...

... but it's better than being up the river without a paddle. :)

[LizW]

6. Historically, though, incumbent Presidents do lose when the market's down

I heard a story on this just the other day, on NPR, I think. I'll see if I can find a link.

[punpirate]

10. Down, yes...

... overall. But do those statistics on re-election reflect October downturns?

Cheers.

[AlinPA]

2. Rove is holding the big cards: Cheney quits, McCain/Guliani replace him;

thawing out OBL; making a "terrorist attack"......

[21winner]

7. McCain can't.

He is already running for re-election. Has been since June.