Should I Start Worrying; Vol 4

[YankeeFan]

The guy running this is a :dem:

He admitted it a few days ago. So when I look at this
http://electoral-vote.com
and see all the red, I start to worry.

Can we take California as an example? It was a strong Kerry State. And now it's a "Weak Kerry".
And New Jersey. It is now "Exactly Tied". It used to be a Kerry State.

Just how much good did wining the Debates do?
Until now, while the Bush Leaguer was nominally ahead, this is the first time he actually has enough votes to win.

[FlemingsGhost]

1. Should I start caring?; Vol 1

What do you think, Yankeefan?

(eyes on the prize, people)

[bigwillq]

4. I think it's *you* that needs to start worrying

The Evil Empire is up 2-0.

[FlemingsGhost]

7. LOL ... I trust the force.

C3-PO worries. No one likes a worrier.

[YankeeFan]

9. RE: What do you think, Yankeefan?

I would rather worry and be found wrong.

[Maat]

2. Excuse me, I live in California...in one of the most conservative..

parts. Trust me, it is not weak Kerry.

[Goldmund]

3. Not true

"Until now, while the Bush Leaguer was nominally ahead, this is the first time he actually has enough votes to win."

Were you visiting the site a week, two, three ago? Bush had over 300 EV.

[SaveElmer]

5. Ugh!!!

You need to stay away from polls for a while...they are gonna kill you

This guy assigns a state to a person no matter how small the margin

Most of these states that Bush is winning are well within the MOE.

Go to Zogby if you want to feel better

[Barney Rocks]

6. state polls lag.

and the polls are not that accurate anyway. Don't worry, we are definitely up!

[Lexingtonian]

8. He's not clued in about polling

Given his method he'll take a state that has Bush at 41%/Kerry at 40% and call it for Bush. No clue displayed whatsoever about the way Undecideds break against incumbents.

He's also unlucky in that he doesn't understand the baseline D/R split in any state or its trends or present upper or lower limits for any major candidate.

He also has no insight whatsoever into the reasons some polls fix partisans at equal turnout (Zogby) and with a predetermined differential turnout (Gallup) in their modelling. (The Gallup modelling actually accounted for new Republican registrations and Christian Right projected turnout rather well during the time it gave Bush such large leads. Now Gallup models the Christian Right turnout lower- probably for good reason- and accounts for Democratic registration catching up. But I think they're probably too aggressive in their questioning and miscounting Undecideds compared to Zogby.)

So: E-V is good for knowing the numbers in the most recent polling. A total fool in the conclusions s/he reaches/'publishes', though. A youngster who has much to learn.