Campaignline: Bustamante & Arnold In Dead Heat

[West Coast Democrat]

I think these are fairky good odds in favor of Davis winning the recall.

http://www.campaignline.com/

GOVERNOR OF CALIFORNIA

Gov. Gray Davis, favored to be recalled, 8 to 7 (53.3% chance that he will be recalled)

Replacement candidates:

Cruz Bustamante, 7 to 3 (30% chance)
Arnold Schwarzenegger, 7 to 3 (30% chance)
Tom McClintock, 7 to 1 (12.5% chance)
Peter Uberroth, 12 to 1 (7.7% chance)
Peter Camejo, 30 to 1 (3.2% chance)
Arrianna Huffington, 30 to 1 (3.2% chance)
Others 20 to 1 (5% chance)

[0rganism]

1. Hmm, something's not jiving here

First, the numbers don't add up. I expect to see probabilities that add to 1, these add to 0.916, but maybe there's a sound gambling reason for that.

Then there's the political oddity. Liberal and Conservative votes are both split 3 ways, not counting the "Others". However, this line has the leading repukes favored at 50.2% to 36.4% for Cruz, Camejo, and Huffington, if the recall succeeds -- which is only given 53.3% to 46.7% odds. What's with this?

Overall, this line is good news for Democrats, though. The repukes have roughly a 1-in-4 chance of succeeding in their power grab, while Bustamante and Davis combine for about a 62% chance of retaining the governorship. Throw in the other two liberal longshots plus change from the Others pool, and you get a solid 2 in 3 chance that a Democrat or Green can hold it.

The smart money is on Davis and Bustamante to carry the day, somehow.

[jiacinto]

2. I thought this was Arnold's race to lose

But lately it seems like Cruz might actually pull it off.