Florida has no clear frontrunner, says Zogby

[Samantha]

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=10153

"The state of Florida has no clear frontrunner in the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive published in the Wall Street Journal Online. 50.1 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican incumbent George W. Bush in the election, while 48.9 per cent would support Democratic nominee John Kerry."

I checked out the Zogby website because I was getting upset listening to the Scarborough Country dialogue (see other threads on this subject). Nationwide, Zogby says Bush* has gained a one-point lead over Kerry.

Thought I would post this so DU'ers could sleep better tonight....

[DuaneBidoux]

1. And explain exactly how this helps me sleep better?

The Gallup poll showing Kerry up in Ohio, now THAT helps me sleep better.

[Samantha]

2. Tonight on Scarborough Country the statement was made Kerry had

no chance of carrying Florida. I think it's a given Jeb Bush will do all in his power to "deliver" Florida again to his brother, but the statistics show Kerry's not that far behind. And yes, Kerry seems to be poised to grab Ohio. The Governor of Pennsylvania says Kerry will take that state as well.

[disneyboy]

3. JFK

Didnt Kennedy win w/ Florida?? So if Kerry takes Ohio and Penn and LOSES Fl. is it OK? I can tell u RIGHT NOW that if Bush was running for Pres. or Orlando he would win in a LANDSLIDE. All i see are "W" stickers.

[Samantha]

4. I believe that is true

If Kerry loses Florida, he needs one of the other battleground states such as Pennsylvania for sure. That's assuming he would carry Ohio. Additionally, I believe with that coupling and the loss of Florida, he would need one of the other battlegrounds state, perhaps New Hampshire or Michigan. Can't remember for sure the third one he would need coupled with a win in Ohio and Pennsylvania and a loss in Florida... The general point is he can win without Florida, but it should would be a lot easier if he takes it.

[disneyboy]

5. So....

Hed have to win Penn, OH, and a 3rd battleground to win WITHOUT FL.??

[Samantha]

6. That's what the pundits are saying

stay tuned.

Honestly, though, after what we saw in 2000, do you honestly think Jeb would allow Kerry to win that state even if he does get the most votes? Do you think the governor has no control of the state political machinery?

[sonicx]

7. other polls have a slight lead for Kerry. I hope Kerry wins by more than 3

otherwise, it will be in court for weeks.

[Samantha]

8. I find this a fascinating subject

Do you really think if Kerry legitimately wins Florida, i.e., gets more votes, the Floridian electoral college votes will go to the Kerry column? I have a difficult time seeing this. After listening for two years prior to the election to people saying the Bush* family expected Jeb to "deliver" Florida to George, and deliver he did, that Dems naively believe this will not happen again in 2004.

Let's get some opinions on this. Can Kerry realistically expect to carry Florida unless something dramatic happens, i.e., a landslide win?

[Zero Gravitas]

9. If...

If Kerry gets PA, OH, OR (probable) and MN & WI along with the states already in our column (MI, NY, NJ, CA etc.) then Kerry wins with at least 272 EVs WITHOUT FL.

Check out the NYTimes online EV calculator on their main web page (scroll down, its on the right side of the page)

[Samantha]

10. I think he can get the first four but I am not sure about Wisconsin

I believe Bush* is ahead in Wisconsin, right?

There are five states which could end in a virtual tie. Should that happen, Florida could decide the election once again.

[Zero Gravitas]

11. IF....

Well I think we can get WI, Gore carried it in 2000. Without WI, we need 2 out of New Mexico (probable), Nevada, Iowa.

Of course if Kerry does get FL we don't need any of MN, WI, OR, NV, NM, IA, WI, MN...

[Samantha]

12. Just announced on MSNBC

If Bush* loses Ohio and Pennsylvania, HE MUST WIN Florida to win.

[Samantha]

13. Also, on Hardball tonight

The African-American turnout is greatly underestimated by the pollsters. This voting block alone in Florida might hand Kerry a win... I have another thread on this subject. I think that would be the ultimate in poetic political justice....

[Samantha]

14. A kick for the Florida vote thread