TRUTH IS ALL

[FARAFIELD]

Does anyone have a link to contact him? He runs a website with a good analysis of the Election numbers, but he doesnt have a contact.

[whirlygigspin]

1. here ya go!

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[FARAFIELD]

2. yeah i have the website

But there is no contact info, which is what i want. his equations always add up to 100% for Kerry/Bush, i want to ask him how does he assign the 2% that wont be voting for either

[TruthIsAll]

3. Lookin' for me?

I hang out at GD2004.

To answer your question, I only consider the two-party race.

Look at it this way: I project Kerry's vote and give Bush et al the rest.

The projection is essentially calculated as the current 2-party poll split + the undecided allocation.This goes for national and state polls. For the base case assumption, I allocate 60% of the undecided/other vote (Nader, et al.) to Kerry and 40% to Bush. The reason for this? It's clean, easy to handle.

Nader will NOT be a factor this time. I figure 1-2% for 3rd parties, with half going to Nader, the rest to Bednarik, etc.

I'm a firm believer in KISS.

If you can't explain it, don't retain it.