Question about "cell phone" voters.

[JackDragna]

It seems to be rote here to say polls putting Bush ahead are inaccurate because they miss an important Democratic voting bloc, one whose members now only use cell phones and therefore do not participate in phone polling. I've searched the net, but I've yet to see an article suggesting cell-phone only voters are mostly Democratic. Has anyone seen an article supporting this assertion?

[tcfrogs]

1. It's all anecdotal

NO ONE has given any evidence that I know of.

[Hello_Kitty]

2. Cell phone users w/o land lines tend to be younger

That makes me believe they'll skew toward Kerry, based on reported registration trends. But that's just speculation.

[tcfrogs]

4. I'm a converted Repug

mid-30's, and I know LOTS of mid-20ish friends who are Repugs that have cell only.

Again, anecdotal, but until some polling agency gives us some proof of some accurate #'s, who knows???

[prodigal_green]

3. sort of deductive I suppose

the people who typically are cell-phone-only tend to be younger. Younger voters are trending toward Kerry.

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m4021/is_2001_Dec_1/ai_80408796

<snip>
American cell phone users age 25 to 34 are more than four times as likely to use their mobile phone as their primary telephone than those over age 35.

[Zorra]

5. Here is some info which might indicate cell phone users lean Democrat:

Cell phone only users tend to be younger, and younger people are far more likely to vote for Kerry than Bu$h.

Tuesday, October 12, 2004
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Nationally, about 6 percent of wireless phone users go without traditional land-line service, according to the Yankee Group, a communications research firm from Boston. The percentage approaches 12 percent among all people under 35 and rises to 14 percent among 18- to 24-year-olds. Cell numbers aren't listed in phone directories, and even if they were, pollsters are not allowed to call them.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04286/394384.stm

Poll: College students moving toward Kerry
CNN
Thursday, October 21, 2004

More often than not, the side they choose is Kerry's. About 52 percent of students say they would vote for Kerry today, compared with 39 percent for Bush. (Chart: Voter Preferences)

While 87 percent of college students say they are registered to vote today, King says that number can't be trusted.

"It's self-reported. But it's also true that the levels appear to be much higher."

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/21/college.poll/

Cell phones making voters harder to reach
October 13, 2004

Legal restrictions are preventing political pollsters from reaching millions of Americans this election cycle because they rely exclusively on cell phones, according to pollsters and other election observers.

The inability to reach such voters, mainly young people, is contributing to the growing perception that phone surveys are skewed and inaccurate and should become a thing of the past, they argue.

In-Stat.MDR, a wireless market-research firm based in Scottsdale, Ariz., conducted a survey of wireless users in February of this year. Of the 970 people questioned, 14.4 percent were cell-phone-only users, the majority of whom were single Americans between the ages of 18 and 24, living in mostly urban areas.

http://www.thehill.com/news/101304/phones.aspx

Fear of Military Draft a Growing Factor
October 21, 2004

WASHINGTON - While President George W Bush and his fellow Republicans vehemently reject any suggestion that a draft, which was eliminated by former President Richard Nixon during the last years of the Vietnam War in the 1970s, is on the way, indications that it may have to be renewed are growing and, with Democratic challenger Senator John Kerry's help, forcing their way into the campaign.

The issue is clearly having an impact on younger voters between 18 and 29, who would naturally be the most vulnerable to any new draft. That demographic group, which was already the most pro-Kerry in the general voting population before the latest rumours and reports, is also considered the most unpredictable.

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1021-21.htm

[lebkuchen]

6. Bring those cell phones to the polls when it's time to vote

in case you're challenged by the GOP brownshirts. Have the important numbers already encoded, like the Voter Registrar's Office, the ACLU, or your local newspaper.

[JackDragna]

7. If anyone challenges me at the polls..

..I will beat them. Seriously. I will not put up one second with a jackboot sticking his nose in my business. I got denied my right to vote last election because some asshole collecting registration cards turned them in too late.