...market may be heading in the next two months:
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Poll: Money Managers Bullish on Stocks
Sun Oct 24, 2004 02:50 PM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - More than 56 percent of U.S. money managers are "bullish" or "very bullish" about the U.S. stock market near term, forecasting stocks will move higher in the next eight months, according to a new Barron's poll.
Those surveyed expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to hit 10,724 by the end of the year and jump to 11,162 by June 30, 2005, driven by "falling oil prices, a relatively strong economy and the re-election of President Bush," the weekly newspaper said in its Oct. 25 edition.
Six months ago, the average forecast in the poll was for the Dow to hit 11,042 by the end of the year.
The Dow average closed at 9757.81, down 108 points on Friday.
Roughly one in three managers said he is lagging behind the S&P 500 market index in his own or clients' accounts, Barron's reported.
The newspaper said most managers expected the U.S. economy to grow more slowly in 2005 than this year.
They see a flatter Treasury yield curve than they did in the spring, Barron's said. About 60 percent of respondents expect the dollar to lose ground in coming months against both the euro and yen.
Their favorite stocks included Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , General Electric Co. (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , Pfizer Inc. (PFE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , Intel Corp. (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and Amgen Inc. (AMGN.O: Quote, Profile, Research) .
Barron's said 85 percent of respondents expected President Bush to win re-election.
The latest Big Money poll included responses from 92 U.S. managers, with varied investment style and portfolio size.
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http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=MRNALQPP1JJPKCRBAEZSFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=6590815I think the market will drop until the election, then depending on the winner, will react favorablly to a Kerry win across the board and selectively to, God forbid, a win for Bush.