still_one
(1000+ posts)
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Wed Oct-27-04 09:35 AM
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Gallop on Iowa, Kerry ahead registered but not with Likely voters |
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Gallop is really screwed:
Iowa
likely voters
bush 50 Kerry 46 uk 3
registered voters
bush 47 Kerry 48 uk 4
Oct 22 through Oct 25
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Dalvis
(90 posts)
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Wed Oct-27-04 09:36 AM
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Kerry is ahead by several points
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cubsfan forever
(1000+ posts)
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Wed Oct-27-04 09:41 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
4. Yes, I don't know why they |
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continually use LVs as a baseline. This omits tons of people (particularly young people)from the mix. You are quite right, this means that Kerry is up by several points.
Professor 2
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GOPBasher
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Wed Oct-27-04 09:39 AM
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2. "Likely voter" models are stupid. They mean nothing. |
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This is why gallup had Bush leading Gore in 2000 by comfortable margins, yet Gore won the popular vote (and the electoral college).
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9119495
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Wed Oct-27-04 10:03 AM
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6. I am personally picking up votes in Iowa |
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If a dem is registered, they are voting. We are going to their houses to pick up ballots and beginning Thursday, we will canvas neighborhoods with up-to-date voter lists every day crossing off those who've voted and dragging others to the polls. Republicans just don't do that stuff as well here.
In 2000, dems got more absentee votes by a 6-1 margin over reps. It will be a closer margin this time but still
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displacedtexan
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Wed Oct-27-04 09:41 AM
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JK is also ahead in early voting in San Antonio... BIG HUGE RETIRED MILITARY COMMUNITY (Fort Sam Houston).
Stats are posted on my blog (under the burning bush).
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Nicholas_J
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Wed Oct-27-04 09:55 AM
Response to Original message |
5. Now ZOgby has Kerry ahead in Iowa |
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Thu May 02nd 2024, 04:59 PM
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