FOR MIKE MALLOY & DU: THE ELECTION FRAUD SPREADSHEET- BEYOND THE MOE

[TruthIsAll]

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS:
IN THE STATES WHERE THERE IS A PAPER BALLOT TRAIL, THE EXIT
POLLS ALMOST EXACTLY MATCHED THE VOTING RESULTS.

IN THE STATES WHERE THERE WAS NO PAPER TRAIL, THE EXIT POLLS
WERE FAR FROM THE ACTUAL VOTING RESULTS. 
BUSH GOT 6.25% MORE VOTES THAN THE EXIT POLLING INDICATED.

ALL THESE NON-PAPER TRAIL STATES SKEWED FOR BUSH. NONE FOR
KERRY. EVERY DAMN ONE OF THEM FOR BUSH. 
WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF THAT?


ALL THESE STATES HAVE A PAPER TRAIL
ALL VOTING RESULTS FELL WITHIN THE 2% MARGIN OF ERROR
AVERAGE VOTE CHANGE FROM EXIT POLLS II: 0.80%

.....Exit Poll I		Exit Poll II..... BBVActual 	.....Diff
State Kerry	Bush	Diff	Kerry	Bush	Diff	Kerry	Bush DIFF  ToBush 

AZ	45	55	-10	45	55	-10	45	55	-10	0
LA	43	56	-13	43	57	-14	42	57	-15	1		
MI	51	48	3	51	48	3	51	48	3	0		
IA	49	49	0	49	49	0	49	50	-1	1		
NM	50	49	1	50	48	2	50	50	0	2		
ME	53	45	8	55	44	11	53	45	8	3		
NV	48	51	-3	48	49	-1	48	51	-3	2	
AR	45	54	-9	45	54	-9	45	54	-9	0	
MO 	46	54	-8	46	54	-8	46	53	-7	-1	
IL	55	44	11	55	44	11	55	44	11	0	

AVG	48.50	50.50	-2.0	48.7 50.2	-1.50	48.4	50.7	-2.3 .80

.................................................................

ALL THE FOLLOWING STATES HAVE NO PAPER TRAIL.
ALL VOTING RESULTS FELL OUTSIDE THE 2% MARGIN OF ERROR!	
THE AVERAGE BUSH VOTE GAIN WAS 6.25% OVER the 2nd set of EXIT
POLLS!					
				
WI	52	48	4	52	47	5	50	49	1	4	
PA	60	40	20	53	46	7	51	49	2	5	
OH	52	48	4	51	49	2	49	51	-2	4	
FL	51	48	3	50	49	1	47	52	-5	6	
MN	58	40	18	54	44	10	51	48	3	7	
NH	57	41	16	58	41	17	50	49	1	16	
NC	49	51	-2	48	52	-4	43	56	-13	9	
CO	48	51	-3	46	53	-7	46	52	-6	-1	

AVG	53.38	45.88	7.50	51.50	47.63	3.88	48.38	50.75	-2.38	6.25		

[DancingBear]

1. Attaboy, TIA!

Keep pounding, keep providing the information.

This bastard stole it, and we're going to do our damn best to prove it.

[TruthIsAll]

29. In pictures

[TruthIsAll]

35. Fixed the graph links here.

[The Sushi Bandit]

2. So is it 6.25 or -2.38 the number to ponder?

[TruthIsAll]

7. 6.25%: THE AVERAGE NET GAIN FOR BUSH

tia

[regnaD kciN]

25. One small nitpick...

You say that "all the non-paper-trail states skewed to Bush," and "all voting results (in the non-paper-trail states -- JDW) fell outside the 2% margin of error." But, in fact, Colorado skewed to Kerry, and by a margin within the MOE.

Not that it's a big issue, or one that discredits the overall charge, but it's probably best to make sure the text fits the tables.

[sonias]

3. Thank you TruthIsAll

I'd say that layout was pretty clear. Something is very stinky especially in NH. I know Kerry won NH but there was an effort to get a recount going there just to use it as a sample of potential fraud for the rest of the country. Don't know if that effort was successful they had until 5:00 p.m. today to file or it was lost.

Sonia

[ArkDem]

4. Are these numbers as accurate as this data?

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[DontTreadOnMe]

5. We need more analysis...

This is striking info. But where is the data for the rest of the states? We all need to keep analyzing this data!

[George_S]

36. And was there a Repub push to get machines in these states...

... and not the others? Did they know long ago which would be battleground states?

[seraph]

6. KICK

:kick:

[Ready4Change]

8. Kick.

Interesting analysis. May I cut'n'paste it?

:kick:

[Old and In the Way]

9. How did your final model prediction tally up against the exit polls TIA?

In this data, what is exit poll I and exit poll II?

A scatterplot of the datapoints would be interesting.

red dots - Evotes
blue dots - paper trail

[TruthIsAll]

14. The exit polls matched up very well to the latest state polls

right before the election. I added 75% of the undecided to Kerry in my last Election Model post.

If you believe the election results, then Bush got 80% of the undecided vote. No fucking way!

And

[papau]

10. Exit polls above are final ones? - or are they the 2pm or 4 pm versions?

And are they the L A Times exit polls,

or is it the networked combined operation that had AP run exit polls vote totals for each race with Edison/Mitofsky Research assisting in collecting and evaluating this information - the so called National Election Pool, http://www.exit-poll.net/pool.html ?

[TruthIsAll]

12. The first are the 2pm versions; the latter are the 4PM versions

Or close to it.

[papau]

19. Thanks - the 4 pm seemed pretty spot on!

:-)

[Old and In the Way]

21. NH is quite interesting......

I couldn't understand what took so long to call NH election night. Then I remembered that had NH turned in 2000, Gore would have won without FL. So they played that one real close to the end....keeping it in play, just in case they couldn't turn OH (same with IA and NM).

[Cleita]

11. Kick

:kick:

[ramblin_dave]

13. FL and OH have some paper trail

OH is still mostly punch card but also optical scan and DRE. Florida is mostly optical scan with some DRE. I would like to know the internals of each state, comparing non paper trail counties to those with a paper trail. Also we shouldn't assume all fraud is associated with no paper trail systems. It seems to me that rigging FL and OH would require some paper trail systems to be rigged.

[DELUSIONAL]

15. kick

[childslibrarian]

16. Kick

you got it

[doni_georgia]

17. Then there's the matter of 88,000 more votes in Palm Beach that voters

This would definitely explain the difference in exit polls and numbers.

[AzDar]

18. ...Says it all, imho. KICK n/t

[regnaD kciN]

20. OMFG...

Last night, I looked at a series of graphs of voting posted in another thread, and failed to see the pattern others were complaining about. I wondered if there might be a reasonable explanation other than machine fraud (i.e. higher percentage of Republican turnout, etc.)

After seeing this table, it is impossible for my to doubt any longer.

I'm speechless. :wow:

What are the odds of such a pattern happening by chance? When I look at this, I get the same feeling I got looking at the Warren Report's conclusions, and realizing that they were logically and scientifically impossible.

And here's another thought: We're only looking at eight battleground states without paper trails where exit polls were conducted. How many other "no paper trail" states are out there, where we can't draw up a table like this? What percentage of votes might have been skimmed in those states? In short, is it not only possible that we won Ohio (and hence the Presidency), but that John F. Kerry actually won the nationwide popular vote???

Looking at what you've presented here, I can't say the latter question is implausable.

We've got to do something about this now! Because, if the powers that be can pull off one rigged election, what makes you think they'll ever stop doing it when they fear they're losing?

[leftchick]

22. very funky things happening in a very red state..... NC!

just a few exampls...

November 4, 2004 Carteret County, N.C. Computer May Have Lost 4,500 N.C. Votes (According to Unilect President, the votes were lost) Yahoo News

"In Carteret, the county was told by the manufacturer of the voting system that its units could store up to 10,500 votes, but the limit was actually 3,005 votes. " WCNC

Carteret voting machines Unilect Direct Record (DREs)
purchased May 96, 45 machines, Programmed by Connecting Points 252-240-2722
Firmware: Unilect Patriot model 2.54, Software: Unilect, model/version Intetilect 2.49
has modem capability
Website for Unilect Corporation: http://www.unilect.com/

November 4, 2004 Craven County, vote totals in nine of the county's 26 precincts were electronically doubled. The outcome of most races isn't expected to be affected. ( How can they tell?) WCNC
Craven County Voting Machines, ES&S Votronic Model 1
Purchased 206 machines from 1997-2003, Firmware model 5.28 installed 2002
Software tabulator ES&S Unity version 2.2, Programmed by ES&S
ess 800-247-8683, has modem, does not use it
November 4, 2004. Mecklenburg County, early voting machines counted some totals twice affecting as many as 4,000 ballots. That problem has not yet been corrected. "There are always glitches," McLean said. http://www.wral.com/news/3891488/detail.html
Mecklenburg County, a discrepancy in unofficial totals posted on election night had officials recounting early voting results Thursday. The county election office said before the election that 102,109 people voted early or returned valid absentee ballots. But unofficial results from election night showed 106,064 people casting early and absentee votes for president. http://www.wcnc.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D8654KG80.html

Mecklenburg Voting Machines, Microvote 464, Purchased 1,400 in 1995
NASED nr 10301, Firmware version 4.31, Software - MEMS model/version 2.02
Programmed by Board of Elections, No modem capability
service by Microvote, phone [phone]
November 4, 2004. Yadkin County, about 1,000 ballots were accidentally counted twice. The problem was later corrected. How? http://www.wral.com/news/3891488/detail.html

Yadkin County Voting Machines - ES&S Optech 111 - P Eagle, Optical Scanners purchased 13 machines 1996, Firmware Optech III, Software, Data Packs programmed by ES&S

November 4, 2004. Guilford County, early voting machines had capacity problems, which affected anywhere from 6,000 to 20,000 ballots. That problem was also corrected.

(Problem was that the machines quit counting ballots when they reached capacity. Doesn't that mean that the machines ran out of space to hold the data, and that the data was lost, as happened in Carteret County? ) http://www.wral.com/news/3891488/detail.html

Guilford County Voting Machines - ES&S touchscreen voting machines, purchased 1,186 from 1995-2002, Votronic Model 1, Firmware 5.28, installed 2002, Tabulating Software Unity 2.2 installed 2003, programmed by Guilford County, has modem, doesn't use.

November 4, 2004 Onslow County, a software error changed the order of finish in the county commissioners race. The error didn't change who won, just who finished first through fifth. The error occurred when a floppy disk that compiles voting data from the counting machines was programmed incorrectly.. WCNC

Onslow County uses punch-card machines.
They have 28, purchased them in 1985 from
Business Records Corp. (now ES&S) and plan to replace them once federal standards are set.

November 4, 2004. Chowan County. Elections board officials were busy tallying corrections Wednesday to results in Guilford, Yadkin and Chowan counties, Bartlett said http://www.charlotte.com/mld/observer/news/local/10094337.htm
Chowan County Voting Machines Not known what kind of machines used in Chowan this election. They did have lever machines. May have been testing other machines.
November 4, 2004. RALEIGH, N.C. -- Election Day has come and gone, but three statewide races still do not have a clear winner.

[Wind Dancer]

37. NC was within a percentage point.

The official results were wrong, I knew something smelled immediately.

[Old and In the Way]

23. If you look at the exit polls, no question Kerry won the PV.

I have no doubt in my mind.

[in_cog_ni_to]

24. Did you send this to Malloy?

I would do it, but I have had 3 emails returned/bounce from him for some reason. I hope he know about this and Bev's post from today.

[Old and In the Way]

26. Did you hear that RW actor Silver on MSNBC on election night?

He addressed the discrepancy of the exit poll v. results.

"Obviously, people were afraid to tell the pollsters that they voted for Bush, so they told them Kerry." That works both ways and that anomoly would have been canceled in the other direction. And since when is a Bushbot been afraid to say he voted for Bush. Total Bushit.

[TruthIsAll]

27. The arguments they use are pathetic. So sad what it has come to.

.

[msongs]

28. too bad NOTHIN IS BEING DONE about all this :-(

[shelley806]

30. Thank you so much!!! This is what I've been waiting for....n/t

[symphony]

31. great job, T I A

What do we do next?

I will e-mail this to as many as I can. Any organized effort to get this into the "librul" media and make it stick?

[Kadie]

32. kick

great job as usual.

[maryallen]

33. Good job, TIA!

Keep 'em coming!

[Robeson]

34. Methinks, I'm beginning to smell a rat. A big Bush rat.

[TruthIsAll]

39. So do millions of democrats.

tia

[TruthIsAll]

38. am kick

tia

[dbt]

40. Yo, TIA!

I just want to THANK YOU for all the poll-crunching you did before the Supposed Election. I believed in them then, and I believe what you are saying now.

WELL DAMN DONE!

:toast:
dbt

[VivaKerry]

41. This really sets it out clearly. I have a question:

I am watching things unfold to question the results in New Hampshire -- which went to kerry.

On the no paper trail states in the chart above, NH has the smallest descrepancy between exit polls and actual reported result differentials.

Why aren't we targeting PA? Exit polls gave kerry a 20% lead.

Now I am getting confused. I just don't understand the NH thing, esp since it involves Nader who has done nothing but hurt us, and has made it clear that this IS his goal -- hurt the dems so as to help us evolve way down the road.

I am going for a walk now.

[kittenpants]

42. is there any history of exit polls being wrong like this?

are they usually right on in past elections? I assume so since it's only been an issue this year.
Thanks TIA for all your work and putting this out in such a clear way!

[VivaKerry]

43. That is the best question all day!

Seriously...

If you want to emphasize the faulty skew, you show a history of the exit polls over the last 4 or 5 prez elections. Maybe someone on DU has that info at the tip of their fingers...

[meganmonkey]

44. I have seen threads about that here before

and the analysis is that they are quite accurate (within the margin of error) up until 2000 (s)election. If I had a faster connection I'd find some links but it's reeeaal slooooow.

Someone help!