From Michael Ventura's recent column in the Austin Chronicle:
Letters at 3AM
Screw the rhetoric, dig the numbers
BY MICHAEL VENTURA
The gab doesn't jibe with the numbers. The numbers don't say, "Democrats lost on moral values." The numbers say, "Democrats were out-organized and didn't play hard enough to their base – yet still almost won."
Scan the results and imagine the possibilities (stats are from Nov. 7's New York Times unless otherwise noted):
# Moral values and the religious right? The Christian Science Monitor (Nov. 15) reported that 16% of Americans want to ban all abortions, and yet 22% of them voted for Kerry. A hefty number. If Democrats would talk to these people, instead of dissing and/or talking down to them, the number could have been heftier. (We must never go soft on choice. But we must recognize that we have anti-choice constituents, then find out why they voted for Kerry, then use that information to reach out for more.) In 2000 and 2004, Democrats won 39% of people who attend church at least once a week. Republicans won 59% in 2000, 61% in 2004 – their mere 2% rise did not account for the election. In fact, Democrats won 40% of all Protestants in 2000 and 2004; Republicans won 58% in 2000, 59% in 2004. A piddling 1% rise. It wasn't the religious right that won this election for George W. Bush.
# Gay marriage. Sixty percent of Americans say they support either gay marriage (25%) or civil unions (35%). Those numbers didn't lose the election.
# Red states and counties – the rural vote. Not much change. Republicans won 59% in 2000 and 59% in 2004. They played to their base and held it, but didn't gain. Democrats won 37% in 2000 and 40% in 2004, actually increasing rurally. Again: If Democrats would talk to these people, instead of dissing and/or talking down to them, the numbers would have been better.
Since the election I've heard a lot of Democrats spew a lot of whiney, simplistic nonsense about "the red states" – ignoring that in those states millions voted their way. (Stats are from CNN.com.) Texas: 4,519,023 for Bush – 2,827,756 for Kerry. Do we just write off nearly 3 million Texans? Mississippi: 671,027 for Bush – 445,596 for Kerry. Do we just forget nearly half a million Mississippians? Kansas: 717,507 for Bush – 420,846 for Kerry. Alabama: 1,174,348 for Bush – 691,993 for Kerry. Virginia: 1,662,484 for Bush – 1,396,269 for Kerry. Georgia: 1,889,832 for Bush – 1,345,198 for Kerry. Wyoming, Dick Cheney's state: 167,127 for Bush – 70,620 for Kerry (nearly one out of three). About the same percentage for Nebraska: 485,766 for Bush – 234,236 for Kerry. These are states that Democrats, and their oh-so-bourgeois helpers (MoveOn.org, etc.), utterly ignored. If we hadn't, the numbers would be better.
In smaller cities and towns (population 10,000 to 50,000) Republicans went down a whopping 9% of the vote, from 59% in 2000 to 50% in 2004. Democrats increased 10% – 38% in 2000, 48% in 2004. We came within 3% of winning these areas, and might have won more if we hadn't all but ignored them. Again, we shouldn't soften our positions; but we need to communicate more widely, more directly, and in terms these areas relate to.
You might say, "What's the point of playing to the red states; we still wouldn't have won them?" Two reasons: Our general vote total would have increased – instead of losing the popular vote by 3% we might have lost by 2% or less. Which might mean that elected Democrats would be a little less timid. But more important: Red state Democrats would have felt supported instead of isolated; might have felt inspired instead of ignored; and they might now feel more reason to organize and fight for next time. Instead, most feel lost and mocked. Surrounded, without help.
To discount them is to desert them. You can't build a grassroots base by ignoring people who agree with you. This country is seriously divided, but the numbers prove the divide isn't as bad as the talking heads would have us believe. And the numbers prove something more: The divide is not irreversible. But it will be, if Democrats don't take all their constituents seriously.
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the rest of the story at:http://www.austinchronicle.com/issues/dispatch/2004-11-26/cols_ventura.html