Is this Peak Oil stuff credible, or is it a red herring?

[Nikki Stone 1]

I have been reading a lot recently about Peak Oil and the (alleged) coming energy shortages. I am not sure whether I buy this or not, and was wondering if people more educated on this issue than I am would care to comment.

Thanks in advance.

[BlueEyedSon]

1. Read on and come to your own conclusions.....

http://www.doomsdayreport.com/links.html

[A HERETIC I AM]

2. It is inevitable.

The economically recoverable reserves are pretty well known and the major key to the equation is China and the rest of the developing world. China has been experiencing a boom in it's middle class in recent years and the number of Chinese with money to spend on cars, appliances and heated/cooled homes could potentially number better than 600 million. 600 Million car driving, appliance using consumers use a SHITLOAD of oil. That number of people closely equals the populations of all of Industrialized Europe and North America combined.

[sam sarrha]

3. we are drilling and capping ours and using theirs.. we have a well in that

probably has 5X+ more oil than all the middle east ever had.. they wont open up that stuff till the price is PREMIUM and we are are desperate...

[Jack_DeLeon]

14. I seriously hope that is true....

I hope that we are sitting on a huge fucking stockpile of oil, I the strategic petrolum reserve was even larger.

I hope and pray that when the rest of the world starts to run out of oil that we have plenty enough to keep us going until the scientists come up with some breakthrough new form of acquireing the energy we are going to need to survive as a civillization.

Because if not we are all fucked.

[Delphinus]

49. That's why we need

to start coming up with alternatives NOW! If we wait until then, we'll definitely be, as you say, "fucked".

[shiina]

55. sarcasm

No, it's all right, the free hand of the market will take care of it all. Companies will create the alternatives as the need arises. ha ha ha ha ha... :crazy:

Darn, no sarcastic smiley.

[RPM]

22. even then, it only delays the inevitable, not avoids it.... n/t

[Solon]

23. Uh guys, the reserve only holds a little over 600 million barrels....

considering the US consumes 3 million a day, that isn't much, if you don't believe me, here is the DOE site for it. 5X all of the Middle East would have to be a TRILLION OR MORE barrels, yeah right LOL!

http://www.fe.doe.gov/programs/reserves/spr/

ON EDIT: Just to put it in perspective, at CURRENT levels of consumption, the SPR will last about 200 days, or about 2/3rds a year, considering that we have been increasing consumption, worldwide, by anywhere from 2% to 5% annually, it is certainly possible, within the next 12 months or so, that we would have to dip into the reserve just to have affordable gasoline. This is assuming that the government doesn't keep it to use exclusively for Military/Government use.

[BlueEyedSon]

30. US consumes 20 MILLION BARRELS/DAY, so the reserve = 30 days.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve

[Solon]

36. Thanks for the correction...

I hate when I underestimate bad news, and I'm a pessimist, or realist, when it comes to Peak Oil.

[BlueEyedSon]

42. No Prob 8^)

[rustydad]

47. So sorry sir

But that is udder nonsense. All the honest oil experts will admit that the USA has used up well over half the oil it ever had or will have. Sure there's lots of oil still in the ground but it cannot be brought to the surface. It is too dense or trapped in the pores of rock and sand. It takes more energy to get it than it produces. A dead end. We will learn to live with less oil and gas or we will cease to live. That simple. Bob

[Spider Jerusalem]

56. Sorry, but that's an utter absurdity.

If there were sufficient petroleum reserves left in the US to render reliance on Middle Eastern and South American crude unnecessary, then we'd already be using it. It makes sense from neither an economic nor a political standpoint to rely upon a source of supply for a major resource which is so prone to interruption and manipulation. There are no prospective provinces in North America that hold even a fraction of the reserves of the Middle East; if what you say were true, there wouldn't be such focus on deepwater drilling by the oil companies.

[Strelnikov_]

4. Straight From The Horses Mouth

http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/Default.htm

I think the graph of discovery vs. production says it all.

My view is that shortages will be a number of years off.

At some point in the very near future, demand will outstrip supply.
This will result in a continuing series of petro price transients, similar to this summer/fall, that will cause economic problems.

[bhikkhu]

5. Credible as hell.

I have read of the "peak oil" problem, or the energy problem in general, for years. As far as I can see, it is as credible as any prediction could be. Originally it was tinfoil hat stuff, resurrecting long discredited Malthusian ideas. But in the past couple of years there has been a real turn-around, with even industry insiders echoing the worst of the doom and gloom arguments.

It is not, however, inevitable. The peak oil problem describes the decline of a cheap energy source, the presence of which has fueled the massive growth in population and productivity over the past 150 years or so. Were this cheap energy source to be replaced with some other equivalently available energy source, all problems disappear. That we have no replacement energy source at the moment, as we teeter on the "peak", is worrisome to say the least, but disaster is not inevitable.

[A HERETIC I AM]

10. I'll agree to this extent........

your point "Were this cheap energy source to be replaced with some other equivalently available energy source, all problems disappear." is well taken but currently NOTHING is on the horizon. Thinking perhaps Hydrogen? Don't. The present method for getting hydrogen involves (if i am not mistaken) extracting it from natural gas so we are right back where we started. Not to mention it is an expensive process.

The real breakthrough would be a cheap, safe Fusion Reactor. Then you could extract Hydrogen from sea water cheaply and THEN you would have something. The way i see it is that nothing will be done until nearly the last dime has been extracted from the public on this path and then and ONLY then will we see a concerted effort to come up with an alternative.

[bhikkhu]

11. Pessimism is fully justified...

I agree. Tar sands and other abundant similar deposits (coal for one) are neither clean nor cheap, nor easily brought to market. We regularly hear about breakthroughs in hydrogen production, but nothing on a scale that would replace oil. Nuclear is possible, particularly fusion, but nothing is being done on any scale that I know of. The majority of new power plants in this country are being built for coal now, as the energy industry sees the decline of natural gas supplies...

[Jack_DeLeon]

15. Read my above posts...

I agree with you all, nothing will be done until its pretty evident how screwed we are.

I only hope that we will have enough fuel left to power us from between when people realize how bad off we are till scientists come up with something.

[Solon]

25. One thing that needs to be made clear, however...

is that once it becomes clear, and we are "screwed", that there is no magic bullet that will "save" us. The way we have conducted civilization will have to change, drastically in many areas. We live unsustainably, and simply cannot countinue down this path, we will have to adapt, and the world will be much different after the fact.

[JohnyCanuck]

29. I'd question this point

Were this cheap energy source to be replaced with some other equivalently available energy source, all problems disappear.



Problems might be postponed, but they won't disappear. At least not if we don't make some drastic changes to our factory farming model of industrial agriculture and our consumer driven North American lifestyles which depend on a perpetual economic growth and continual expansion. However, if tomorrow we suddenly discovered a new cheap and freely available energy source that could function as a one for one replacement for oil as a source of energy, we'd likely just continue on our current path until we used up some other finite resource such as our topsoil and fresh water which are already under stress.

If Peak Oil is true it could be a gigantic blessing in disguise if it forces on us the realization that we have to moderate our demands on the environment and that we have to adjust to the notion that we live on a finite planet with finite resources.

Eating Fossil Fuels

by Dale Allen Pfeiffer

© Copyright 2004, From The Wilderness Publications, www.copvcia.com. All Rights Reserved. May be reprinted, distributed or posted on an Internet web site for non-profit purposes only.

<snip>

Modern intensive agriculture is unsustainable. Technologically-enhanced agriculture has augmented soil erosion, polluted and overdrawn groundwater and surface water, and even (largely due to increased pesticide use) caused serious public health and environmental problems. Soil erosion, overtaxed cropland and water resource overdraft in turn lead to even greater use of fossil fuels and hydrocarbon products. More hydrocarbon-based fertilizers must be applied, along with more pesticides; irrigation water requires more energy to pump; and fossil fuels are used to process polluted water.

It takes 500 years to replace 1 inch of topsoil.21 In a natural environment, topsoil is built up by decaying plant matter and weathering rock, and it is protected from erosion by growing plants. In soil made susceptible by agriculture, erosion is reducing productivity up to 65% each year.22 Former prairie lands, which constitute the bread basket of the United States, have lost one half of their topsoil after farming for about 100 years. This soil is eroding 30 times faster than the natural formation rate.23 Food crops are much hungrier than the natural grasses that once covered the Great Plains. As a result, the remaining topsoil is increasingly depleted of nutrients. Soil erosion and mineral depletion removes about $20 billion worth of plant nutrients from U.S. agricultural soils every year.24 Much of the soil in the Great Plains is little more than a sponge into which we must pour hydrocarbon-based fertilizers in order to produce crops.

Every year in the U.S., more than 2 million acres of cropland are lost to erosion, salinization and water logging. On top of this, urbanization, road building, and industry claim another 1 million acres annually from farmland.24 Approximately three-quarters of the land area in the United States is devoted to agriculture and commercial forestry.25 The expanding human population is putting increasing pressure on land availability. Incidentally, only a small portion of U.S. land area remains available for the solar energy technologies necessary to support a solar energy-based economy. The land area for harvesting biomass is likewise limited. For this reason, the development of solar energy or biomass must be at the expense of agriculture.

Modern agriculture also places a strain on our water resources. Agriculture consumes fully 85% of all U.S. freshwater resources.26 Overdraft is occurring from many surface water resources, especially in the west and south. The typical example is the Colorado River, which is diverted to a trickle by the time it reaches the Pacific. Yet surface water only supplies 60% of the water used in irrigation. The remainder, and in some places the majority of water for irrigation, comes from ground water aquifers. Ground water is recharged slowly by the percolation of rainwater through the earth's crust. Less than 0.1% of the stored ground water mined annually is replaced by rainfall.27 The great Ogallala aquifer that supplies agriculture, industry and home use in much of the southern and central plains states has an annual overdraft up to 160% above its recharge rate. The Ogallala aquifer will become unproductive in a matter of decades.28

We can illustrate the demand that modern agriculture places on water resources by looking at a farmland producing corn. A corn crop that produces 118 bushels/acre/year requires more than 500,000 gallons/acre of water during the growing season. The production of 1 pound of maize requires 1,400 pounds (or 175 gallons) of water.29 Unless something is done to lower these consumption rates, modern agriculture will help to propel the United States into a water crisis.

In the last two decades, the use of hydrocarbon-based pesticides in the U.S. has increased 33-fold, yet each year we lose more crops to pests.30 This is the result of the abandonment of traditional crop rotation practices. Nearly 50% of U.S. corn land is grown continuously as a monoculture.31 This results in an increase in corn pests, which in turn requires the use of more pesticides. Pesticide use on corn crops had increased 1,000-fold even before the introduction of genetically engineered, pesticide resistant corn. However, corn losses have still risen 4-fold.32

Modern intensive agriculture is unsustainable. It is damaging the land, draining water supplies and polluting the environment. And all of this requires more and more fossil fuel input to pump irrigation water, to replace nutrients, to provide pest protection, to remediate the environment and simply to hold crop production at a constant. Yet this necessary fossil fuel input is going to crash headlong into declining fossil fuel production.

<snip>

Considering a growth rate of 1.1% per year, the U.S. population is projected to double by 2050. As the population expands, an estimated one acre of land will be lost for every person added to the U.S. population. Currently, there are 1.8 acres of farmland available to grow food for each U.S. citizen. By 2050, this will decrease to 0.6 acres. 1.2 acres per person is required in order to maintain current dietary standards.40

Presently, only two nations on the planet are major exporters of grain: the United States and Canada.41 By 2025, it is expected that the U.S. will cease to be a food exporter due to domestic demand. The impact on the U.S. economy could be devastating, as food exports earn $40 billion for the U.S. annually. More importantly, millions of people around the world could starve to death without U.S. food exports.42

Domestically, 34.6 million people are living in poverty as of 2002 census data.43 And this number is continuing to grow at an alarming rate. Too many of these people do not have a sufficient diet. As the situation worsens, this number will increase and the United States will witness growing numbers of starvation fatalities.

www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100303_eating_oil.html

[bhikkhu]

57. "disappear" was a poor choice of words

rather, other natural constraints on growth and population would become "the problem". Freshwater would be the next, I imagine. Of the total naturally renewable freshwater, the human species uses about 50% (UN statistic), and there is still a chronic shortage of clean water. A new power source could fuel water refineries to supply a growing population...but that is a huge expenditure of energy, beyond what is currently available in oil.

As far as other constraints, perhaps there are more recent studies, but Cornell completed a study a couple of years ago which surveyed a number of factors and determined that our planet could sustainably support a population of 2 billion humans. Any number over that was unsustainable, or provided for by a degradation of resources leading to a deeper population collapse.

Not very encouraging...

[Nordic]

6. I've known about it since 1980

when I read a book for college called (I think ) The Seventh Sign (or something like that). That's when I started to really look into it.

I figured back then it was about 40 years off. We're definitely starting to see the early stages of it now. Wars for oil, for starters, inflation, etc.

It's not a pretty portrait of the future. The physical reality (and I mean "physical" as in "physics", the laws of thermodynamics) of the situation is such that we are as dependent on oil as the pre-famine population of Ireland was on the potato.

And I don't know if you're familiar with what happened to the Irish during the potato famine but it was pretty gruesome.

This, however, has the potential to be the biggest disaster in human history. The POTENTIAL is the key word.

[gjb]

7. Not to mention the Saudi's are lying about their reserves.....

http://www.iags.org/n0331043.htm

[bhikkhu]

9. Considering Iraq, it may be in their interest

to minimize their reserves. The world bank allows oil reserves to be used as loan collateral, hence the overstatement. But now, I can't imagine an islamic country that would want to be in Saudi shoes - with the world's largest oil reserve, as the bombs still rain upon their neighbor, no. 2.

[Solon]

27. Iraq also overstated their reserves during the '80s...

it has not been corrected yet, I would imagine that whatever is the stated report by the DOE or some other agency, like OPEC, cut a third or half off of it and you would probably get a truer estimate.

[hatrack]

43. Pretty much every Gulf producer dramatically increased their "provens"

. . . during the 1980s. No new exploration, no new gigantic discoveries. Nope, it's just that in the late 1980s, everybody's reserves jumped by up to 40%.

Couldn't have anything at all to do with OPEC rules that based how much you're allowed to pump on the size of your proven reserves, now could it?

Nah!!

[Alisa]

8. Without a doubt - it is for real

imagine what that means. Use this theory also when contemplating the news: political, national and international.

There is a lot of information on the net - educate yourself and start thinking about making some plans, get connected with locals that are gathering to sort things out, you can do this though Meet-Up.

I am very involved with this (peak-oil) yet the idealist, romantic in me cannot stop hoping for help - and Bush isn't help. I don't know if Kerry is either but Bush will only make things worse in my opinion.

I also feel that any strategy for the future cannot exclude powerful players, politics (national - international), global warming, terrorism (ours - others), over-population, diminishing natural resources, to name a few.

[SmileyBoy]

12. It's a real issue, but I think a lot of people act fatalistic about it.

A lot of uneducated people say that most of the world will die off, and so forth. That's simply not the case. It's a real problem that we'll be facing very soon, but it's not going to result in worldwide catastrophe.

[Jack_DeLeon]

16. Sure people will survive...

Hell there are people alive now that have never used any vehicles or fossile fuels in thier lives.

However most of our civillization will not surivive. It could literally be the new dark ages.

All of the current US population cannot be fed using 1800s technology. Machines being used in planting, harvesting, and trasporting crops are the only reason we have such an overbundance now.

[SmileyBoy]

17. WRONG, most people WILL survive.

I'm getting sick and tired of all these "doomsday" stories regarding Peak Oil. It's an IMPORTANT issue, and it's real. But to think that it could lead to the downfall of civilization is crazy and stupid.

[Jack_DeLeon]

18. So how do you feed most Americans....

when trucks dont have the fuel to get the goods to market?

Thats just assuming that farmers could produce the same ammount of food without heavy machinery.

[rman]

21. not to mention fertilizer..

most of which is oil-based artificial fertilizer.

[Solon]

24. It takes approxamately 10 Calories of oil to feed each American...

ONE Calorie of food, this is excluding transportation and cooking, so how are we to avoid starvation at least?

[RPM]

37. the 10,000 mile caesar salad...

I read somewhere recently that the components of a Caesar Salad served at a Wendys's travel an aggregate of 10,000 miles before reaching one's stomach. Not sure how that distance gets allocated, or how much engergy goes into that, but it certainly seems to bear witness to your 10:1 production to comsumption caloric ratio.

[Solon]

38. Actually it is without transportation costs included...

If you calculate the amount of energy, most derived from oil, to create oil based fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, along with the fuel needed for the harvesters, planters, and other assorted machinery, it is a 10:1 ratio, now add in the transportation, marketing, and other costs after that. Its a pretty grim picture, isn't it?

[RPM]

39. One upside - the end of the global economy...

All production will revert to local production for local consumption.

And Yes, I realize that will mean less high-tech products and things needing massive scales of economy.

For those who survive, a sustainable world won't be the worst thing going.

[rfkrfk]

45. Ships, trains, farm tractors,,, can run on coal

When the coal runs out,in a thousand years,
I guess people will have to turn the Pacific into
a seaweed garden.

[Solon]

48. Actually, if you do that...

Coal would not be viable by the end of the century. Also Oil gives you the best bang for your buck in regards to energy by volume. In order to match that with Coal, you would have engines that are as large as old locomotives that burn hundreds of pounds of coal a day. This also does not address the fact that the "Green Revolution" of the 50s that increased our food production is because of Petroleum based products, mostly fertilizer and pesticides. The problem is even worse than that because tried and true methods of farming, such as crop rotation, that are used to keep arible land fertile have not been practiced in nearly half a century. Imagine the dust bowl, but about 100 times worse. Our soil is so bad now, that without the fertilizers that come from oil it would be barren land that could barely grow 10 percent of what we have now.

[mhr]

32. And What Do You Base This On - Would Like To See Your Reasoning

Not your ranting.

[Jack_DeLeon]

13. Just ask yourself one question...

Do you think fossil fuels are going to last forever?

If the answer is yes, and we will always be able to pump oil out of the ground for all eternity then no peak oil wont be a problem.

If however the answer is no, then we will eventually run out of oil, and that is what peak oil is all about.

[Skittles]

19. WTF is there to f***ing BUY????

OIL IS A FINITE RESOURCE - it's not a question of IF we will run out but WHEN. PULL YOUR HEAD OUT.

[AntiFascist]

20. It's received more media coverage than election fraud...

A recent episode of West Wing was titled "The Hubbert Peak".

One memorable line from the show was: "If this war isn't about securing oil resources, the next one will be."

[Ira]

40. Resource wars are coming

I think that it is a safe bet that if the Peak Oil theory is true, resource wars are coming.

[Solon]

41. They already started...

Iraq has, theoratically, the second largest reserves in the world, as is mentioned in the above posts, our stategic reserves are pitiful. If the United States is to maintain any dominance in the next 25 years, we would have to control quite a bit more oil than we do now. This will give us tremendous power over the world economy, more so than today, that is the plan, and it has started.

[Solon]

26. One thing to keep in mind...

You see the curve for peak oil and it looks like a nice steady decline, as if we have an additional 100 years to worry about it or something. The problem is that people forget about the demand side of it, supply and demand has been head to head for a while now, that is why, when a tanker spill happens, gas goes up a dime a gallon, believe me I know, worked at a gas station. So when the peak becomes evident, in other words, when demand exceeds supply, oil prices will spike, quite dramatically I would imagine. As a result of this, at least locally, the supply will be cut back to stave off economic collapse and there will be shortages in many areas. The worst off will be those that have low population density versus actual consumption, in other words the suburbs.

[mmonk]

28. Saudi Arabia is using

new techniques for extraction. There is some difficulty there. I don't know if they are bringing as much sweet crude to market. Overall, there are still untapped reserves in the world. The major changes will be increasing demand from China and refining capacity.

[mhr]

31. Saudi Arabia Is Also Pumping Billions Of Gallons Of Seawater Into The

Oil fields to keep the pressure up.

Without that pressure - No Oil.

Ruppert has a very concise introduction to Peak Oil in his new book Crossing the Rubicon.

Well worth the read.

[htuttle]

52. You know what's really funny about that?

When they were cleaning up the Kuwaiti oil fields after the first Iraq war, they used a new oil-eating bacteria to clean up the surrounding Persian Gulf.

Wonder how much time passed between Kuwait dropping oil eating bacteria into the Gulf, and Saudi Arabia using the water for oil extraction?

[Solon]

35. Oh yeah...

In Ghawar, the largest single oil field in the world, a full one third of what they extract is sea water that they pumped in in the first place to get at whats left. Remember Oil floates on water. Also, technology only goes so far, you can only squeeze the sponge so many ways before it is simply not worth the effort anymore. As far as the untapped reserves, they are there, and they probably will remain untapped for a while, because they are horrendiously expensive to even get to, like near the north pole, and also don't have nearly enough oil to even be cost effective, till oil prices skyrocket to twice what they are today.

[hatrack]

44. Bulk of recent Saudi increases (such as they were) were sour crude

This isn't terribly popular for any refiner or oil company - more capital- and energy-intensive to refine, since you have to get rid of all the damn sulfur.

Same with heavy oil. Only one in four US refineries are set up to crack the stuff. Nobody wants either sour or heavy when there's still light sweet available.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

33. please read "The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight " Thom Hatrmann

This book is an eye-opener. It can change the way you look at things from the start. Yes, it deals with the peak-oil issue but from a deeply felt, insightful viewpoint that makes us look at energy not just as fossil fuel but as sunlight itself. It delves into concepts of living off current sunlight versus ancient sunlight and the implications of a culture built upon such cheap, abundant energy and the upcoming diminishing of such a source -- the last hours of it. Thom Hartman expresses a genuine concern and vision for the future of humanity against a backdrop of the insights shared in this MUST READ book.

[BlueEyedSon]

34. Link:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1400051576/qid=1102945017/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_xs_ap_i1_xgl14/002-5776842-6240845?v=glance&s=books&n=507846

[MadHound]

46. Yes, it is quite credible,

And I would suggest that you act on it now. If you live in an urban area, make sure that you can grow your own food in your backyard. The overwhelming majority of our food is transported by truck, and if there is no oil, there will be food shortages. Think about putting in a wood stove, and 2KW or so of solar panels on your roof. If you've got the land, put up a windmill, with battery storage if you can afford it.

We have been given a small window of time for those of us who are aware of what is going on to get prepared for the fall. Our society is addicted to oil, not just for transportation, but also for heat, and electrical generation. In addition, oil is a component in many plactics that we use. Use this time wisely to prepare for the coming disaster, and that is what it is going to be. Our government thinks short term, they are conditioned not to think beyond the next election. And their corporate masters in Big Oil aren't going to allow our government to start opening up alternative types of energy generation. Therefore it is up to you and me individually to help ourselves and others. So prepare now, for soon it will be too late.

[DrWeird]

50. Denial's not just a river in Egypt.

It's inevitable. The only question is: how long will it take?

[htuttle]

51. It's simple, basic physics

There's a limited amount of oil on the planet at any given time, even if you believe the Russian wackos who think oil is inorganic and created by lava.

We've found 'x' amount of the world's oil, ie., we don't know for sure how much of the total we've found. However, we haven't found any major new oil deposits in years. The deposits they found over the last few decades are very small compared to, say, Saudi Arabia. Just a fraction of the size. So whether it's because there isn't much more to find, or because the oil exploration companies got stupid or unlucky, there isn't really any new oil appearing.

Demand for oil is increasing rapidly. India and China, in particular, are using much, much more oil than anyone realized they would. India's middle class is as large as the entire population of the US, and they are starting to buy a lot of cars, same with China.

So even if there isn't actually LESS oil on the market, if demand keeps rising, then the price will rise without an upper boundary, which it will if no alternatives are available.

Peak Oil does NOT mean we 'run out' of oil. 'Peak Oil' describes a situation long before that where no new supplies come online, but demand continues to rise.

That's where we are right now.

:shrug:

[rustydog]

53. Oil is finite. peak oil is the relative ease of withdrawing oil

coming to an end and costs skyrocketing.
of course it is real!
Take any beferage botle. openit and envision it as the earth and the beverage the earth's oil supply. will it last forever? of course not, when you empty the bottle, where will you refill it?

[shiina]

54. Great lecture on Peak Oil available for download

Peak Oil is real. It's documented. It happened to the US in the early 1970's and caused lots of problems. We started to import, but there won't be anywhere to import from when we hit world-wide peak oil. Pretty scary stuff.

There's a great lecture you can download that explains it at ::

http://www.radio4all.net/index.php?op=program-info&program_id=7365&nav=&

Richard Heinberg, who writes about peak oil, explains the phenomenon, documents why it's real, talks about what it means and talks about alternative sources.