The probability of 3 male Biographers committing suicide is very low

[ck4829]

Pick three male Biographers who committed 'suicide'.

Hatfield, Casalaro, and now Gary Webb.

"Examining the male U.S.suicide rate for recent years we can extrapolate a conservative estimate of 17 male suicides per 100,000 people, or 0.017%. The odds of 3 specific (all male?) biographers committing suicide would be the cube of 17/100000, or 4.913 x 10^-12... about 5 chances in one trillion. (That's over 300,000 times LESS likely than drawing a Royal Flush in 5 card stud poker with no wild cards.

DNA evidence resulting in court convictions is reliable to about 1
person in 100,000 to 1 person in 1,000,000.) This calculation should
be regarded as a conservative estimate: the actual odds against such
a "coincidence" would be much greater. For example, if any of the
biographers were female, the odds would be even greater."

http://www.suicidology.org/stats2001/1999datapage2.pdf

Another thing that these three people shared was the fact that they did extensive research on the RW. That is no doubt another thing that would make the odds of this happening even greater.

[DODI]

1. First it was microbiologists (remember), now biographers

One must ask -- what the hell is going on?

[ailsagirl]

2. Anytime I hear that a bright investigative journalist

"commits suicide," my suspicions come out.

Or when certain people are killed in small plane crashes... surely some are authentic but there are many that I think are sabotage.

[Eric J in MN]

3. UK weapons inspector David Kelly's "suicide" didn't look that way

to the paramedics:

http://au.news.yahoo.com/041212/2/s58z.html

Two medics who examined the body of a British weapons scientist who had questioned the UK government's case for war in Iraq said they were surprised that it was ruled a suicide.

Paramedic Vanessa Hunt, 35, and ambulance technician Dave Bartlett, 53, said they were struck by how little blood was seen on and around the body of David Kelly, which they thought was inconsistent with a fatal cut of an artery.

They had raised the same concerns before, and offered no alternative theory of the cause of death.

"We felt that our observations of the scene where Dr Kelly's body was discovered were inconsistent with the conclusion of the Hutton Inquiry that Dr Kelly's death resulted from the wound to his wrist," the pair said in a joint statement read by Bartlett at a news conference.

[raggedcompany]

4. kick n/t

[burn the bush]

5. I don't think wrist slitting is a very popular suicide method for males

really, i think they ususally use guns or drugs. women slit wrists.

[sans qualia]

9. I think guns are the number one method for both sexes

After that, men tend to hang themselves, and women tend to use pills. The general preference of males for more violent forms of suicide is thought to (at least partially) account for the fact that, while women attempt suicide much more often than men, men actually commit suicide more often than women.

[burn the bush]

11. really? I think I read something about women basically not using a gun

because of the mess. They don't want to be splattered on the walls. I think it may have said that they frequently slit wrist in the tub to contain the mess. I could be wrong and can't tell you where or even when (ha or if) I heard or read that.
I know as a teenager, I knew someone who tried to commit suicide many times and it was with pills (most common I think-no pain) and wrist slitting. She once cut through 3 veins and never saw a doctor, so I would have to agree with the post that said it is doubtful that these people could have died from their wounds alone.
And yes, I know she was crying out for help or maybe just a suckass underachiever since she was unsucessful after several attempts. :nopity:

[KlatooBNikto]

6. Another thing that makes the odds greater is that these biographers

are all exposing a rightwing big wheel.How come no one who exposes anything about a left wing politician ever dies in mysterious circumstances?

[lostnfound]

7. Webb was not a 'biographer'? & your statistics are incorrect.

I agree that it seems to be an occupational hazard of going up against the Bushes. I have my own doubts.

But you can't pick 3 occurrences with the same outcome and say that they were randomly picked after the fact. Pick any RANDOM 3 people of 100,000 BEFORE you know the outcome and if all 3 were suicided, your stats would be right -- but you didn't choose these 3 people randomly, you chose them based on the outcome.

[Garbo 2004]

8. Yeah, of them only Hatfield was a Bush biographer as far as I can tell..

One can do all sorts of fun with stats but it helps if the premise is first factually correct.

Kind of like Bush's Iraq intel: they knew the answers they wanted, the case they wanted to make and poof! the "proof" was there. Slam dunk!

(Also, I just got done listening to an hour of interviews with people who knew Webb on Christine Craft's local Sacramento show. Apparently those who knew him well don't question that he committed suicide. I posted the basics of the hour and the guests on the "Was Gary Webb Murdered?" thread.)

[ck4829]

10. I just picked the keywords. I should have used 'researchers' instead

When I had fist copied the main part of this post, I kind of had second thoughts about using the word 'Biographer', but I went with it anyway.