Let's see if we can reconstruct the Bush coalition.

[BurtWorm]

Whether you believe he legitimately won or not, who voted for him, do you think? What reasons might a Bush voter give for making that stupid mistake?

1. Those who believed that a vote for Bush was a vote for Jesus.

2. Those who believed that a vote for Bush was a vote for a permanent tax break.

3. Those who believed Bush has a talismanic power to keep the terrorists out of the country since 9/11 and, like superstitious baseball players, didn't want to risk losing his talismanic power.

4. Those who accidentally voted for him.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

1. "Terror and taxes" was the excuse some gave me. nt

[BurtWorm]

3. That is clear, but what perfect storm of reasons got so many out of their

chairs to cast that vote, considering how little Americans apparently think of Bush's performance on terror, the war, the economy, etc.

For example: there must have been a group that had a vote for Bush extorted out them.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

8. Moderate Republicans are the swing group in my opinion...

The social liberal/fiscal conservative Republicans would have made the switch to Kerry in huge numbers without the 911, terra, terra terra mantra. I know many PA moderate Republicans who voted Kerry (hence, PA continues to be blue) but some were too concerned with the terrorist threat to switch but still voice their concerns over the deficit. After these next 4 years of continued deficits and pandering to the zealots, the moderates will be out in force looking to the Dems for leadership.

The evangelicals are a lost cause for the Dems...they can have the Republican party all to themselves.

[Stinky The Clown]

11. Take "terra" off the table with a strong Dem message on this

and we win. The fact is, as you point out, moderate Republicans are far more on our side than the right on most issues. Since the right has shown themselves, for the last several decades, to be the free spenders, we have the better record and the better position on fiscal matters.

So it all comes down to terra. We could have won this last time had not Kerry had that stupid "I voted for before I voted against" thing working against him. That issue alone, it seems to me, allowed all the other crap, like the Swift As Shit Liars to make their spew stick.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

14. Yep, that was a stupid comment by Kerry...I have to agree.

BUT, I still found his foreign and domestic policies preferable to W. As a moderate Republican, I saw the zealots lining up behind W in the 2000 campaign. I do believe that the Dems can make inroads into the moderate Republican group and have realistically already done so in states like Pennsylvania. Ya, Specter won but even Micheal J. Fox campaigned for Specter. Now, Santorum in 06, that's a different story and I hope the PA Dems will seriously reach out to the moderate Republicans for votes against ol' Ricky. On a national level, I think we are a reachable target for the Dems...especially if W keeps pumping up the deficit, alienating allies, blurring the lines separating church/state, etc. etc.

[Stinky The Clown]

17. As an anecdote, my next door neighbor is a lifelong rep voter

who is as moderate as can be ...... no fundie in any way, shape, or form. My wife and I supported Clark in the early going and he also sat well in my neighbor's view. When Clark folded, my neighbor went back to being undecided. He finally went for Kerry this time. Actually, he voted ABB and Kerry was the guy who got his vote.

But here are the interesting details of this anecdote. As to Kerry's VVAW activities, he said he was on the same side of that issue as Kerry was **at that time* and has been there ever since. My neighbor and I are both Navy guys from the 60's. That Swift As Shit Liar crap did not play well among the veterans from that era. I know many who saw them for the liars they were. I can't speak about later vets, however; it may have played better with them. Who it really hit was the **non* veterans ... the one's who have no perspective on that particular issue.

The thing that made my neighbor finally switch to Kerry was the VP debate of all things. When he saw Chimpus Khan up against Kerry there was no surprise. He knew King Khan was inarticulate and maybe not the brightest guy in the world and that he would look bad against Kerry no matter what. But he was shocked to get such a clear picture that Cheney was real guy in charge. That scared him.

He also later (after the "election") admitted he always had voted republican because of "business issues". But he now sees clearly how they really only favor big, BIG business, not the little guys. He and I are both small business people who are solidly middle class .... not in any way, shape, or form rich or part of Bush's "base".

So yeah ..... moderate/borderline Republicans *can* be induced to come over to the Dem side. And the Dems don't need to change anything ..... just to get the message right (and get the right candidate!)

[purduejake]

2. 5. Those tens of thousands who don't really exist

[BR_Parkway]

4. It's the Wealth, Stupid - Village Voice article says it all:

Pundits blow hot air. Political scientists crunch numbers. On his blog Polysigh, my favorite political scientist, Phil Klinkner, ran a simple exercise. Multiplying the turnout among a certain group by the percent who went for Bush yields a number electoral statisticians call "performance." Among heavy churchgoers, Bush's performance last time was 25 percent (turnout, 42 percent; percentage of vote, 59 percent). This time out it was also 25 percent—no change. Slightly lower turnout (41 percent), slightly higher rate of vote (61 percent).

Where did the lion's share of the extra votes come from that gave George Bush his mighty, mighty mandate of 51 percent? "Two of those points," Klinkner said when reached by phone, "came solely from people making over a 100 grand." The people who won the election for him—his only significant improvement over his performance four years ago—were rich people, voting for more right-wing class warfare.

Their portion of the electorate went from 15 percent in 2000 to 18 percent this year. Support for Bush among them went from 54 percent to 58 percent. "It made me think about that scene in Fahrenheit 9/11," says Klinkner, the one where Bush joked at a white-tie gala about the "haves" and the "have-mores": "Some people call you the elite," Bush said. "I call you my base."

http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0445/perlstein.php

[BurtWorm]

6. Very interesting!

[Stinky The Clown]

15. I'm not sure that $100K is the cutoff

$100K, while a handsome annual take for anyone, is hardly what I'd call "rich". I'd say it is double that, or maybe even more. People in the $100K to $150K range can **easily** flip over to the Dem side, and may well have in this past cycle. The very same issues that impact those in the $50K to $100K range surely connect to those in the next bracket above.

Class warfare *is* a legitimate issue. So long as our side tailors the message to describe $200K and under as middle class, and provides concrete ways to help this group, we can win. Your average small business owner and middle manager is **hardly** the "rich class". They may want to *think* of themselves as rich (cuz it inflates their egos to do so), a message targeted right to them about how **we** have a plan to help them more than the right has a plan to help them, will win them over.

(Not to proselytize, but simply by way of example) Clark's message about no taxes on anyone below $50K and cuts for those up to $200K, with significant tax *increases* for those above $200K would have been the right message. Such a message would put, what, 85%? 90&? of the population in the favorable position. Those are winning numbers in anybody's book.

[ChairOne]

5. Gay-bashing and state's rights...

Gets the heartland.

[BurtWorm]

7. People who went with the devil they knew.

People who didn't want a foreigner in the White House.

People who hate trial lawyers.

People who worship the Second Amendment.

People who worship the fetus.

[4_TN_TITANS]

9. Interesting.....

I hadn't really thought about Bush's "base" having a major impact because it's only 1-2%, but in this election that's a tie breaker. Choosing your tax cuts over the welfare of your country - brilliant. Not. :mad:

[Beetwasher]

10. There Are Only Two Reasons People Voted For Bush

1. They are selfish and greedy and directly benefit (profit) from his policies or have some other selfish or stubborn reason for doing so.
2. They're an uninfomed, ignorant, stubborn moron.

I'm serious too. That's it.

[bossfish]

12. Gotta agree with Beetwasher...

[Stinky The Clown]

16. You're right when you say ..........

......... "They are selfish and greedy and directly benefit (profit) from his policies ...... "

And that's an easy fix. See my post #15, above.

[rndmprsn]

13. 5. those who's votes were stolen, made up, or lost...

[MasonJar]

18. Go to Democrats.com and check letter from an alleged RNC

employee, who says that Kerry won Florida by seven hundred and fifty thousand votes and Ohio by even more.