For the next ten minutes, I will answer any questions about Peak Oil.

[Peak_Oil]

Fire away.

[davidlynch]

1. Is There Any Alternative That Can Really Replace Oil?

Is there any hope, or is society as we know it kaput.

[Peak_Oil]

6. We're all fucked.

There is no alternative. Grasp your ankles, and wince.

Next?

[RafterMan]

38. Nuclear + hydrogen

or mega-efficiency plus biodiesel.

Lots of options.

[Peak_Oil]

39. Sounds good.

Let me know how the application of these technologies works out. Sincerely, I hope for the best.

I hope you guys don't judge me harshly tonight. I'm going to hit the sack soon. Bump in 8 hours, I'll answer.

In any case, I hope biodiesel works out. I'm trying to convince family members to buy new diesels right now to help out with this initiative.

[rman]

53. of course. the question is, how long will it take

to make the transition, and how much energy will we need to make the transition. specifically: do we still have enough energy (oil) to make the transition.

[Celeborn Skywalker]

2. When do you expect it to hit? This decade, next century, when?

[Peak_Oil]

8. 2005-2008.

That's your window of opportunity.

After that, all bets are off. The dollar will continue to plummet, and food availability will not be a given.

Make a lot of friends.

[Pooka Fey]

3. How are you personally planning on dealing with the ramifications

of economic collapse in the U.S., and severe food shortages?

[Peak_Oil]

9. I'm going back to school

for Nursing. I don't think I have enough time to make it through medical school to become an MD, so this is close enough.

Three to five years, then all bets are off.

[Pooka Fey]

14. No, I mean are you going to try to join a farming co-op, etc?

Your skills in medicine will come in handy, but no one will be able to keep a hospital running without cheap oil in say 2015, so there goes your paycheck. Are you going to stay in a city, or try to find someplace to scratch out a living in a rural area?

[Peak_Oil]

22. Good question,.

I'm headed for farmland 25-30 miles from a major metropolitan city in the pacific northwest. I will purchase 20-40 acres of farmland and hope to ride out the incredible tragedy from that distance. Who knows, maybe some vestige of civility will remain by 2020.

I'm just about hammered into submission tonight, but will answer further questions tomorrow.

Best regards,

Peak_Oil

[Bouncy Ball]

24. yeah thanks a hell of a lot for answering mine.....

:eyes:

[Peak_Oil]

37. Please restate your question, I'll do my best

to answer. Can't find your question right now.

[Pooka Fey]

25. Best regards to you too, Peak Oil.

I would like to keep up the discussion. The Peak Oil group on DU has been pretty slow, unfortunately; I'm glad you stirred up the pot tonight.

[Eric J in MN]

4. Whch developed coutnries will be LEAST affected? (nt)

nt

[Peak_Oil]

10. All developed countries are fucked.

Africa will probably be the most stable. They're already in civil war and indulging in canniablism. That is our future.

Next?

[Mistress Quickly]

5. What about all the products made from petrolium

so even if we used alternative fuels, wouldn't it still be being used up at an unstoppable rate?

[Peak_Oil]

15. Fuels for what? Commuting to your job at the insurance company?

Do us all a favor and watch http://edison.ncssm.edu/programs/colloquia/bartlett.ram, and then come back and comment on Peak Oil.
Not to be egotistical, but please gather facts and THEN decide what the future will look like.

[InvisibleBallots]

7. What about all the new sources, Canadian tar sands, etc

?

[Peak_Oil]

17. We're fucked anyway.

It's the rate of production that will do us in. Think about the difference between putting a pump into a pool vs using a crane to dig a hole in an oil sands pit... that's your answer.

[JohnyCanuck]

52. Trouble with tar sands derived oil

is that the processing of the tar sands in addition to requiring large quantities of increasingly scarce and valuable fresh water is also very energy intensive. The ratio of energy returned on energy invested is quite low when compared to other more conventional sources of oil. For example the EROEI of oil from a conventional well could be around 40 to 1 so that means you get as much as 40 times as much energy out as you put in to find, develop and pump the oil. Overall, I believe that today for conventional oil from all sources the EROEI averages out to an EROEI of around 10 to 1. For oil from tar sands the EROEI ratio is running around a miserly 1.5 to 1. In other words you have to burn two barrels worth of energy to get 3 barrels worth out the other end.

For now the production of tar sands oil is being subsidised in a way throught the use of "stranded" natural gas, ie. natural gas from small isolated pockets and fields which are not big enough to make it economical to hook them into the natural gas pipelines bringing natural gas to homes and to industries in the south. That stranded natural gas is used as an energy source for the tar sands processing. When that stranded natural gas eventually runs out and we have to rely on low EROEI tar sands oil to provide the energy to produce more tar sands oil the economics of the situation could become much more dicy, although I believe there is now some talk of building nuclear power plants to provide the power to generate steam for future oil sands development.


For a discussion of the problems that face the tar sands developments see this link to an article about the tar sands posted at an Irish web site.

www.feasta.org/documents/wells/contents.html?one/panel1.html

Snip:
Gallon lists the problems with tar sand extraction as follows:

* Misuse of resources: tar sands oil is hard to unstick from the grains of sand and it costs a lot of money and energy to do so. As the net energy gain is small, it can never escape the oilenergy cost cycle.
* Climate change: the greenhouse gas emissions from uncovering, extracting, refining, upgrading and transporting tar sands oil are many times more than those associated with extracting refining and processing either conventional oil and gas, or even coal.
* Environmental destruction: Shell's tar sands process requires the stripping of the soil and rock from hundreds of thousands of acres of land to get at the bitumen 200 feet or more under the surface. Forests, wildlife habitat and water sources are ruined.
* Water pollution: tar sands extraction and processing requires the use of massive amounts of water. When the used water is discharged it can cause oil and phenol contamination far beyond the stripmine site
* Air pollution: discharges from the processing and refinery upgrade facilities can spread large amounts of toxic and carcinogenic compounds over a wide area.

Campbell thinks that a lack of water will limit tar sand processing. "The supply is already so tight that the Alberta government wants to charge the companies for it". The American author Richard Heinburg also thinks that water will be a problem, but in a different way. In his 2003 book The Party's Over which looks at future energy supplies and the consequences of a decline in oil and gas production, he points out that the waste water pond of one of the processors, Syncrude, is 4.5 miles in diameter and twenty feet deep. He calculates that it would take 350 similar plants to meet the world's oil needs, and, together, their waste water pond would be half the size of Lake Ontario.

www.feasta.org/documents/wells/contents.html?one/panel1.html

(If you're using a Firefox browser be prepared to adjust the text size using ctrl + or ctrl - to make it readable).

[InvisibleBallots]

66. thank you, JohnyCanuck

quite informative

[Bouncy Ball]

11. What do you base your figure of 2005-2008 on?

You can keep it short if you want. Just a summation.

I am new to this topic but actually writing a novel which is told from the point of view of the year 2075 and we've already gone through the Great Wars and a world revolution. I am gathering research.

Thanks!

[Bouncy Ball]

12. Oh also

I saw some program that said that if we set up windmills (those futuristic looking wind generators, not old-fashioned ones, of course) from Texas to Montana, we wouldn't have an energy problem at all. True or bullshit?

[Bouncy Ball]

23. I think you missed this question Peak

the program also discussed putting these windmills out in the ocean, obviously tall enough to be above the water. I can't remember where I saw it or when....

[Peak_Oil]

28. Very good question.

It's a question of magnitude. If we expand our current wind electricity program by a factor of two, and do this four times, we will reach a grand total of...

hang on now...


ONE PERCENT of current US electricity production.

[Bouncy Ball]

30. Just a side question

but why so sarcastic? Thanks for the answer.

I use green energy, all wind energy for my home. I know that doesn't make a damn bit of difference so now I'm kinda wondering why I do.....

[Peak_Oil]

90. Sorry about being sarcastic.

I was 100% shitfaced last night when I did this thread. Shitfaced, sarcastic, but accurate.

[Peak_Oil]

18. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari.

http://www3.telus.net/public/a6a20277/


Read it and weep.

For further enlightenment, check out Matthew Simmons.

[Peak_Oil]

41. Matthew Simmons, Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, Ken Deffeyes.

Collectively, their predictions for Peak Oil are 2005-2008. The most pessimistic option is 11-2005.'



Feel better?

[Paulie]

13. Can I convert my Prius

to run on coal? Maybe a steam boiler, al'la the 1890's?

[Peak_Oil]

19. No problem.

Convert to coal, and watch the coal dust work as a GRINDING COMPOUND on your cylinders for a very short amount of time before you lose compression.

[Pooka Fey]

36. There is an alternative fuel which is available currently

and I hear it's easy to convert your car to run on it. It's a type of vegetable based fuel called biodiesel. I don't know anything else about it.

[Peak_Oil]

40. Decent partial solution.

It's not the be-all end-all for fuel shortages.

There's not enough farmland in all of NA to produce enough fuel to continue our suburban lifestyle. We need to compromise.

[Pooka Fey]

44. I thought you went to bed, Peak Oil. :-)

I know. Biodiesel is like giving a heroin addict a couple of sugar packets to tide him over until his next fix comes in. In our case, the fix won't be coming in, ever. Now I'm going to bed. For real.

[Bouncy Ball]

16. Another one.

My husband convinced me in 1998 that Y2K was going to be the end-all be-all, that computer meltdowns would cause a domino effect of horrific problems and panic and he convinced me to prepare accordingly for two years. So we did.

And everyone here knows what happened. Nothing. Except for the fact that I didn't need to buy many groceries for a very long time.

Is this the same thing?

(I am not being flip, I am being serious.)

[Peak_Oil]

20. Yes, this is the same thing.

Peak Oil will be resolved in a matter of days, and you have nothing to worry about. Please go back to your regularly scheduled programming, there is nothing to fear.

I apologize for the delay.

www.willandgrace.com
www.friends.com
www.allinthefamily.com

[Bouncy Ball]

21. What the hell???

I am REALLY trying to ask you some honest questions. I need to know about this. I do NOT watch fucking TV, for your information and I have started to read some things about and by Matthew Simmons as you recommended above.

If you don't want to give any serious answers, then don't offer to take questions.

I am a NEWBIE to this topic. Y2K scared me so badly I had several panic attacks resulting in passing out in public places. And I am not normally a fearful person.

So I simply wanted to know your reasons (in a nutshell if you can) for feeling this will really happen in just a few years. If I am convinced (by your words and my own research), then I have a lot of work to do.

But yeah, thanks for taking me seriously. :eyes:

[Peak_Oil]

26. OK, I'll see what I can do.

Remember, no matter what I say, I believe that humanity will perish soon.

With that in mind...

Will this happen in just a few years?

Absolutely.

There is no question about it.

Research the following topics.

1. Fiat money supply
2. Geometric economic growth
3. Arithmetic money supply
4. Limits to population growth
5. Military power related to current population.

That is all.

Sorry to be such a downer.

[Bouncy Ball]

27. You don't have to apologize for being a downer

no one is responsible for my emotional state but me.

Ok. I'll look into those topics. I was kinda hoping you could give a rundown as to the reasons why or the steps that will lead up to this event in the next few years. But ok.

[Peak_Oil]

33. Good for you.

1. Economic growth is predicated on energy growth

2. Fiat money supply is predicated on economic growth

3. Social security, among other things, is predicated on economic growth.

4. Please feel free to panic. Riot if you must. This has nothing to do with Keynesian money theory. This is about physical scarcity.

5. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

[Peak_Oil]

35. Honestly, I wish I could.

I'm just way too hammered tonight to contemplate such an adventure. I will promise, though, that if you research these topics, that you will not be disappointed.

You will have all your questions anwered. The answers will suck, but you will get your answers.

I'm not kidding. Dig away. Dig, and find out the truth. Tell all your family members. Tell all your friends.

[Pooka Fey]

29. Here is a good book to start learning about Peak Oil.

The Oil Age is Over by Matt Savinar

Links:

www.fromthewilderness.com
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
www.peakoil.net

The Peak Oil group on DU - there is an EXCELLENT Lecture by a professor from University of Colorado you can watch which is simple, watchable, and will change your whole perspective. Good links over there too.
------------------
Edited - (sorry) I fixed the link to lifeaftertheoilcrash.NET

[Bouncy Ball]

31. Thanks

that's the kind of thing I've been looking for. Kind of a Peak Oil for Beginners or a good introduction for someone who only has some sketchy information. The papers by the guy Peak gave me the link to above are quite detailed and a bit beyond what I know right now, so I need somewhere to start.

Thanks! :hi:

[Pooka Fey]

34. No problem.

Frankly I went into a profound emotional hole after learning about it. This is not a happy subject, but it makes perfect sense of an otherwise completely irrational and bloodthirsty U.S. foreign policy. Wait until you read how 9/11 fits into this puzzle. The clincher for me was finding out that Texas oilman * has a completely solar environmentalist's wetdream of a house. WTF???
This is for real.

[Peak_Oil]

42. Solid.

I should have linked to his site before.

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

[0007]

64. ....and here's another site by Al Bartlett

http://www.npg.org/specialreports/bartlett_section3.htm

Read it and weep. Al put out a video that was the best yet, but I can't seem to find it right now.

The game is over.

[rustydad]

104. Boy cried wolf

Remember the Aesop tale? Though the boy got it wrong a few times there really was a wolf. Peak Oil is for sure. It is a finite material. We have used up most of it in the USA and have spread around the world looking for enough to power the engines of modern society. The is no replacement and our lusting arms have circled the glob only to meet in the sands of the Middle East. There we will fight to have our "fix" of energy. And there our country will destroy itself in an orgy of killing and dying. It is all soooo sad for the young ones. Bob

[autorank]

32. OK. Here's a good one.

Is there anyone, anywhere doing any research on a real chemical fix that would give us a SUBSTITUTE for gas; something we can make up like we do other chemical compounds that work for various things. I'm not talking about Ethanol but a real RESEARCH PROJECT, MANHATTAN PROJECT STYLE, TO FIND A TOTAL SUBSTITUTE?

[Pooka Fey]

43. Check out this link - this DUer is looking for researchers

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=266x49

[Peak_Oil]

45. Here's what you're looking for.

Free lunch.

I wish I was kidding.

There is no chemical alternative to an energy SOURCE. If you're looking for an energy transformer, then no problem. If what you want is a source, you're in serous trouble.

Roll again.

[Peak_Oil]

92. Hey, answer found!

It's called the bicycle!

I know, I wish I had something better, but that's pretty much what we've got. Fuel cells use platinum, which is expensive because it's so rare. If we used ALL the platinum on this entire planet at once to create fuel cells... dammit I used to know this one like the back of my hand. It's a negligible number in the big scheme of things. I think we get one wave of fuel cells that work for like 2000 miles or something. It was a crappy little no-solution solution.

Electric cars could work, but we need to source the electricity. What are we going to make electricity out of? Rubbing your feet on the carpet and touching the top of a battery? Seriously, nuclear might work for a while, but if we used nukes to replace coal and oil, I think our plutonium would last something like 20 years. Then it's gone. No mas. Nuclear isn't free, and it isn't forever.

[rman]

98. any fuel that you're going to "make" will cost energy

it'll be an energy carrier, not an energy source.

you're never going to get more energy out of it then you put into it.

of course there are plenty alternative energy carriers, methanol and hydrogen are viable.

it is also known where to get the energy to make those: ie solar and wind energy.

those are not the problems.

the problem is to make it cheap enough so that it can be implemented on a large scale. plus that we're kindof in a hurry.

[jojo54]

46. O.K. this is really scaring the crap out of me

You don't have to answer, Peak_Oil, I know you're trying to get some rest in this crazy, hectic world. For anyone else who cares to answer, I'm really scared shitless. I didn't like monkey boy from day 1, nor did I like his father. But I don't think that G.B. Sr was so blatent about screwing the American people over. His son is stealing all the money from the Iraqi oil right in front of our noses and no one seems to care! If this man is still in power by election 11/07, then we are truley fucked. There will no longer be a middle class, there will only be the "haves and have mores"!

[Pooka Fey]

47. Sucks, doesn't it?

[jojo54]

48. It more than sucks

In December, 2000, I actually told my hubby that I thought this could be the person to push the red button. Now he's got 4 more years to do his dirty work. Man, I would love to be a fly on the wall right now!

[Peak_Oil]

49. My man.

I hope I meet up with you in the Pacific NW. Load up on 12 gauge shells. We're gonna party next year. It's gonna be you and me against the Freepers. Don't kid yourself. My girl is ready for this. I'm ready to go, and you should be too. Time is limited. In any case, I'll be a trained medic/nurse, and I'll be as far into nurse practitioner as I can get before TSHTF. I'm a really good shot by the way. I've been trained by men who stormed Nazi machine gun nests. No joke. One of the guys who trained me in marksmanship was awarded the CMH for taking out a Nazi machine gun nest. Look his name up. Schroeder.

[jojo54]

50. That's cool but

I AM WOMAN, HEAR ME ROAR! and all that bulls__t. Sorry for not making that clear, but I am definately female, 50 yrs old and pissed off as hell. I have to give credit to my brother....he is 100%, devote liberal, and 35 yrs ago, he warned that sooner or later, most people would be living in the mountains eventually. I think I need to email him and tell him how right he was!

[Peak_Oil]

51. Don't kid yourself.

This is life/death. Right now. You are staring down the barrel. Choose your friends and stick to your decision. This is it.

Good night. I'll see you in the morning.

[Must_B_Free]

54. why do people assume it will all dissapear at once?

more likely it will become more and more expensive and force change over time.

[mmonk]

55. exactly

It will take time. Of course China's growth curve is around 9% (they are trying to hold it down to 8% annually). Therein lies alot of the problems ahead combined with increasingly dwindling available future supply from middle east sources.

[phylny]

82. Someone I know who is in the business said this:

1) China is the biggest growth area, and their need is growing fast.

2) At least one of the major oil companies projects 20 - 25 more years of reserves in fields that have been identified, but not drilled yet.

Just adding my two cents.

[rman]

57. What makes you think people assume it will disappear at once?

Of course it will become more expensive and force change. The question is if price increase will be slow enough, and if we will have enough energy (oil) to allow for a relatively painless transition to alternative energy sources. If we don't have enough time and energy then still certainly things will "change", on way or another.

There is every indication that production will peak and thus won't be able to keep up with growing demand (probably explosive growth of demand given the fast growing economies of China and India), starting in 2007 or 2008. From then on production can only decline. If we haven't switched by then, there will be 'pain'. And 2 or 3 years is to short to make significant headway in the transition from oil to alternative energy sources.

[Must_B_Free]

60. all of the "sky is falling" prognostications

the end is near, we're doomed, et. al

[0007]

65. Take your head out of the sand and check out this site

http://www.npg.org/specialreports/bartlett_section3.htm

[Solon]

69. We don't, its market forces that will actually be worse than actual...

shortages. To give an example, what will happen when demand will exceed supply? How will the market react, and how stable will the price of oil be? It would be easy to imagine panic on the market as many try to rush to buy the stocks in oil, and then later to sell them off at a profit. I would say that the price of oil at that point would probably spike to a high of $150 or more per barrel, before stabalizing to being steadily more expensive at maybe as low as $70 per barrel as the new floor. This is something that shouldn't surprise anyone, and it will possibly go up and down haphazardly, and that will play holy hell on the economy in general.

[Gyre]

81. logarithmic equations

Are what mathematically-describe this type of "event". Doesn't lend itself to gradual change.

Google something like "carrying capacity" and maybe you'll get it, if you really want to.

Gyre

[Silverhair]

56. Doesn't anybody here know about Thermal Depolymerization?

Here are a couple of links. I don't feel like writing several paragraphs about it. It could well be the solution. According to Discover magazine, May 2003 issue, (A reputable genuine science magazine) we have enough agricultural WASTE to be able to replace ALL of our imported oil.

http://www.changingworldtech.com/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization

http://kantor.com/usatoday/thermal_depolymerization.shtml

[rman]

58. how much energy will it take to convert waste into fuel?

how much time will it take to make the transition to 'waste-based fuel'?

[Silverhair]

59. The process is about 85% efficient. That is pretty good.

That means if the garbage that you throw in has 100 BTU of energy in it, then 15 BTU will be used in the process, leaving 85 BTU for sale, as well as having some carbon and fertilizer that can be sold too.

The process is COMPLETELY POLLUTION FREE, and will process toxic wastes also. Sorry, it won't handle radioactives.

A TCP plant is very similar to a refinery, and they are pretty cheap to build. The plant in Carthage only cost $30 million.

They are producing 500 barrels of oil per day. That doesn't sound like much, but when you consider that they can produce oil for $15 per barrrel (their cost) and the world price of oil is about $45 per barrel now, then you get a nice profit. That's 180,000 barrels of oil per year, (I rounded off) and lets say they sell it for $30 per barrel, then at a profit of $15 per barrel that's almost $3 million profit, and the plant itself will be amortized over a period of 30 years. Very nice profit indeed.

And such a profit will attract investors to build other plants, to turn garbage into waste. In fact, think of the money that a municipal waste management company spends operating a landfill. Now, that can convert the garbage into oil!!! They save money not having to operate such a huge landfill, and make money from the oil too!!!

[Must_B_Free]

61. The reason we're dependent on oil is because master says so.

when master says we can move on, we will...

[Silverhair]

62. I don't believe in conspiracy theories at that level. NT

[rman]

68. after all, people at that level can only be "good" people, right?

-

[Silverhair]

70. No. Just they don't have THAT much power.

A lot of power - Yes. That much power and ability - No.

[rman]

77. depends how you define "power";

they sure don't have enough power to force everyone to comply with them.

but besides intimidation there's seduction and deception.

i do presume you are aware that the media isn't ours anymore.

[Silverhair]

93. Define your terms please.

Who is "the media"? There isn't a "the media". There are many media, and the methods of mass communication continue to expand. There isn't a "the media" to be able to be so contolled as you suggest.

Who is "ours"? Do you suggest that all media should be under the control of the left only? That would be just as bad as if all media were under the contol of the right only.

Nobody has the power to implement and control such a super conspriracy. There are just too, too many variables and uncontrollables to make it work.

Not that there aren't some people that would love to try. But the ability just isn't there.

[rman]

102. my terms

the media
The mass media, or mainstream media. The media that the vast majority of people get the bulk of their information from. Those media outlets that are owned by media organizations that are owned by one of the six big corporations that own some 90% of the media, such as General Electric (www.takebackthemedia.com > who owns the media)
I'm not even going to start on partisanship.

ours
Controlled by society, the public, "the people". As opposed to a few big corporations.


It's not a super conspiracy. There's some conspiracy at the top, with only a few people involved. Probably there are several factions within the super elite. The vast majority of their 'henchmen' are seduced and/or deceived into working to further the goals of the powers that be. The goal is accumulation of wealth and power, the seduction is that you'll get a part of it. This doesn't have to be explicitly proposed to these people, since capitalist civilization is permeated by the notion that you have the right to grab what you can, and that it's inevitable that you'll hurt others in the process; "don't worry to much about others". Many people tend to use this, to one extend or another, as an excuse for themselves to do pretty much anything they think they can get away with in order to further their goals. And the more wealth and influence they get, the more of it they want, and the easier it becomes to get away with what they do to get it. And of course it is more risky to cheat on those that are more powerful then you are then it is to cheat on those who are less powerful then you are.

[rman]

67. we are dependant on oil because very few alternatives are in place

of course few alternatives are in place because of our masters.

we should have started decades ago with greatly improving efficiency of production, transport, living, etc and switching to other sources of energy.

[RafterMan]

63. Out of every 100 units of energy produced by the process

15 are consumed to make it run.

At this point nobody is really sure how well it works, though everyone is hoping. The main timing issue isn't that we're about to run out of oil -- peaking doesn't mean running into a brick wall. Mideast collapse is a brick wall, but Mexican and Canadian oil would be available at a price.

When the oil begins to dry up and go up in price, even if we don't have a TDP/Biodiesel/Electric alternative in place, you can get fuels from coal at higher price levels. There are many reasons to want to get ahead of this curve, but I don't think social collapse is in the offing.

[Solon]

71. Problem is time, money and investment...

How long will it take to replace our demand for oil? How many plants would be needed to fill in the millions of barrels that we consume a DAY. According to this thread, and Peak_Oil himself, we have from less than a year to 3 years to build, maintain, and put online, probably hundreds, if not thousands of these plants around the country. Where is the capital for this? Even the most optimistic geologists say we have till 2010, 6 years, so where is the 'miracle' technology going to be, still in this one lab, or all over the country?

[Solon]

73. Peak_Oil, not a question, just some things I want to mention for...

everyone's benefit, don't mean to hijack your thread, just strengthening some points.

1. There is no magic bullet that will solve the Peak Oil "problem" it is not like other problems, and every alternative has negative as well as positive aspects to them. The biggest constraint is time, if we started in the 1970s to seriously develop alternatives, we would be in a better position today, but we didn't, so we may all pay for it now.

2. Regardless of what alternatives are adopted in the next few years, whether nationally or locally, expect that your lifestyle will radically change. Suburbs are not sustainable, and will no longer be affordable in the short-term or long-term. If you commute more than 30 miles to work, expect to not be able to make it any more. If you expect to have oranges availuable year round and you live north of the Mason-Dixon line, forget it. If you expect to be able to buy finished products from China at the nearest Big Box store, forget that as well.

3. I'm going on a related side note that everyone should be aware of Natural Gas. Natural Gas has already peaked in North America, and unlike oil, it cannot be imported cheaply, in other words, its not imported at all. Well the problem is that NG has been used for the past 20 years to supplement coal fired and nuclear plants nationwide for electric generation. This is a major problem, everyone remembers the blackout of 2003, it was caused by a branch from a tree hitting a power line, in other words a repairable problem. Last winter, some NG electrical generators in the Northeast were so close to running out of fuel that the fuel warning light came on, so to speak.

They squeaked by, no doubt about that, but what about the remainder of this winter, or this coming summer? Our power grid has been demonstrated to be very delicate in interruptions, like I said ONE branch caused the power failure last year. What will happen when we simply don't have enough generator capacity to meet demand? Rolling blackouts, like California, but on a more or less permanent basis? Or will it simply be total regional blackouts, with little to no hope to bring the grid back online? This could be bigger than Peak Oil in our immediate future, not to put to fine a point on it, but there are no immediate national solutions to electrical power generation, especially within the next year or two. Nuclear plants take too long to be put online, and coal plants nobody wants in their backyard, so the solutions to this are even bleaker.

I'm not even going to go into too much detail about the state of our ariable land, the "Green" revolution and the petrochemicals needed to sustain our food production, just too depressing.

[bhikkhu]

83. Coal-fired power plants are in back in vogue

Apparently they are no longer building NG plants in the US - a "quiet revolution", as I read one industry insider say, is that virtually all new power plants going online in the next ten years here will burn coal.

[Solon]

88. That's the problem...

"in ten years", what about this year, or the next?

[RafterMan]

75. Once again

"Peak" does not mean "end".

[Solon]

76. No, but it can mean disruption at the very least...

that's the point, Peak means that demand exceeds supply, which means there will be shortages somewhere in the world, whether here or India, it will still disrupt the world economy.

[rman]

79. nobody says "peak"="end"

people do say peak = decline, peak = production won't keep up with demand.

[RafterMan]

86. I was merely pointing out

that Solon's claim that we had only 1-3 years to fix the problem was overstated.
"...we have from less than a year to 3 years to build, maintain, and put online, probably hundreds, if not thousands of these plants around the country" is untrue, unless you assume that suppy will end at that point.

[Solon]

91. No, once again...

this is a race to keep up with demand, maybe I should have put that in front of the statement, but I thought it wasn't needed. Basically, we would have to build, maintain, and put online, probably hundreds, if not thousands of these plants around the country, to continue to supply our current and future energy demands. There is that better?

[RafterMan]

94. Yes

But we wouldn't have to do it all in the next three years.

And I agree that it would be unwise to put our eggs in the TDP basket at this early stage of the technology, but I think you came down a little hard on Silverhair. We'll know soon enough if it works, and following that path doesn't stop us from following others at the same time.

[rman]

97. It's not the end of supply, it is the end of sufficient supply.

I think it is not wise to wait till then to start spending *additional* energy to make the transition to alternative sources.

[RafterMan]

99. Let's be honest

Nothing very significant is going to happen on the government front in terms of renewable energy in the next 1-3 years except by accident. And they will do many other deeply unwise things in that time.

TDP is privately funded, moving forward and there's a chance it'll work. I don't see the point in knocking it just because it may not provide all the answers, instantly. What will?

[rman]

103. of course the govt isn't going to do anything about it

except fight more wars for oil and geo-political dominance.

Thermal Depolymerization isn't all what it is made out to be.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=2884070&mesg_id=2884070&page=
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=2884070&mesg_id=2884525&page=

[Greyskye]

95. That was going to be my question

Thermal Depolymerization is going to be a major factor in the future. It's just going to take a major kick in the pants (like peak oil?) to get us there. Damn shortsighted idiots.

[amandabeech]

101. Agricultural "waste" will not be available generally to convert

to oil, IMHO. The waste will be recycled into the soil to improve soil health and as a substitute for chemical fertilizer.

Chemical fertilizer generally encompasses nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium compounds.

The nitrogen compounds are fabricated using natural gas as a feedstock and as process heat. Natural gas is running low here in North America, and indeed, it will run out worldwide. Other sources of feedstock and process heat may be used, but will be much more expensive, and will be employed for other uses.

U.S. phosphorus ores are expected to last 80 years or so. After that it will be very, very difficult to import them from, say, Morocco, which has abundant resources.

Potassium must also be mined.

All these fertilizer components must be transported to the farm.

Agricultural wastes contain all these fertilizer components right there on the farm.

In my opinion, TDP will be used to process contaminated sewage sludge, meat processing wastes, other organic trash that cannot be recycled and reused, and the products of landfill mining, IMHO.

[rustydad]

106. You are very correct!

[Silverhair]

108. Weeds can be processed too.

Fertilizers are used to make crops grow in areas where they don't naturally do as well. In every area, there are native plants, called weeds, that grow very well there. A TDP plant can use weeds just as well as crops. All that it needs is biomass.

And the TDP process produces fertilizer as a byproduct.

[radwriter0555]

72. Peak Oil is a MYTH.

There is plenty of oil; the planet is not running out.

The current scam is nothing more than a game to increase profits and bolster the "we gotta get iraqi oil" game.

The state of California could run indefinitely on its own production, if it so chose to do so.

http://www.davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr52.html

http://www.davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr53.html

http://www.davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr54.html

"Who is Behind the Peak Oil Scare"
http://www.davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr55.html

etc.

[Solon]

74. Dude, no offense...

Read the links, abiotic petroleum, are you kidding me? I mean, even if it was true, why the hell is a full third of Ghawar, the largest single oil field in the world, filled with water that we had to pump in?

[rman]

78. ... according to "dave"

-

[bhikkhu]

85. Not the best argument on those links...

That a number of the industry insiders who are current sources of information and policy, and who warn of peak-oil problems, have potential related monetary and political conflicts of interest is hardly a rebuttal to the facts. The suggestion that we could simply build nuclear plants for electric and run them off peak hours producing hydrogen for cars is plausible...in about a hundred years, long after the "peak".

[RafterMan]

96. Why 100 years?

How do you come up with that estimate?

[Squatch]

80. Has it been ten minutes yet?

[gorbal]

84. Biodiesel could at least move the food trucks

One thing to think about is that most of the energy in this world is used by a very tiny minority of the population. Sure they have power and influence, but so do we. We might somehow harness the same energy that Howard Dean did during the election, to raise the funds to create a contingency plan and an alternative infrastructure to deal with the lack of oil. We might at the very least save the people who live in the cities from the horrendous fate of mass starvation.

Diesel powered trucks can already run on biodiesel, so there is something to think about. I know of a few communes already that have biodiesel fill-up stations, and in the case of an emergency many restaurants will gladly give up their grease. I doubt there would be enough for everyone to fill up their car, but if we could stockpile enough for an emergency, that would at least be something.

We could also use that same type of "Dean" energy to help use the last of the oil to create alternatives, and to make more people aware. Even if everything I said was pure BS, we can get through this if we put our heads together, and we have alot of heads.

[Solon]

87. That much is true...

contingency plans of that sort will end up being worked out on the local level, the problem will also need to be met in food production as well. I would imagine that all that farmland like in my area, that is now used for suburbs, will be used again as farmland to stave off starvation.

[gorbal]

89. Yeah, we should invest in Family Farms

Buy local food. Or better yet, buy food from farmers that live near cities, that will help build up production. Most of the food in supermarkets are disgusting hybrids with more embodied energy than the house I helped build this summer.

My plan is to start a farm in Maine and have a biodiesel fill up station and alternative info library on the property:)

[apple_ridge]

100. Peak oil would be the best thing that ever happened to this

country and the sooner the better. As long as cheap oil is available, there is little motivation to create more efficient transportation or develop alternative fuel sources.

[DireStrike]

105. Um, no.

That's like saying that getting shot by police would be the best thing that could ever happen to a bank robber.

If the forces of nature are bearing down to take inventory, it won't be good for anyone. It doesn't matter how far out of line we get, we will be slammed back down into hard reality.

[heidler1]

107. There is an up side: Global warming will gradually go away.

That's providing we keep coal usage under control.