Dollar verses Euro

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The introduction of the Euro changes everything. My understanding is that with US trade deficit, the future doesn’t look too great for the dollar. Many nations might like to switch to the Euro, but the oil markets still use the dollar, and for this reason, the dollar remains the universal currency since almost all nations must buy oil. If the oil markets switched to the Euro, the world will switch to the Euro, and US will have a big problem because of shrub’s budget deficit. Some have said that Iraq was planning to switch to the Euro and this was the real reason for the invasion, and I’ve also heard that Iran is now planning to switch to the Euro. If this is all true, a US invasion of Iran is an absolute certainty. I’m not saying that any of this is true; it’s just that the MSM is completely ignoring this issue. Does anyone have any information on this? Is this war part of a campaign to maintain the dollar as the dominant currency? If it is true, how can we focus attention on this currency battle and the role it is playing in this “war on terrorism”?

[cthrumatrix]

1. BTW ...Iraq switched to the Euro in 2000...look what happened

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2. What about Iran?

[cthrumatrix]

7. not yet.. they are talking of opening an Oil Trading market in Tehran

to compete with NY.

NY would not like this one bit. Google on it...you'll see

And it would trade in Euro's supposedly.

[bearfan454]

8. If the OPEC nations switch their oil currency from the dollar to the euro

Our markets will have one of the biggest corrections in history since a lot is dependent on the dollar's strength. And I bet this won't happen until all the dumb asses put their SS money in the market.

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. Russia has considered pricing its oil in euros too

http://www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/crisis/2003/1010oilpriceeuro.htm

and they are the world's second largest oil exporter.

[TreasonousBastard]

4. Iraq wasn't simply over the Euro...

since they've been wanting to beat up Iraq since the mid '90s. But, it probably didn't help keep us out of there.

Other oil nations are simply scared to change, although Russia's making noises, even though it costs them. They buy more stuff from the Europeans than us, and the currency conversions cost money.

As our foreign debt gets worse and we keep pissing people off, there will probably be a gradual shift to the Euro as it gains strength and stature as a stable currency. Right now, it's still pretty new and the Brits haven't signed on yet. If the pound disappears into Euroland, and it will eventually have to, it's all over for the dollar.

Give 'em a few more years and see how China grows. I don't doubt for a minute that they want the yuan in play as a major international currency. They are now Japan's biggest trading partner, and there's even a slim possibility of a single Asian currency.

Wouldn't that be fun?

[NewJeffCT]

5. If China does anything with their currency, we could be in serious trouble

Right now, the Chinese yuan (pronounced like 'ren') is tagged to the dollar at a little more than 8 yuan per dollar. With the falling dollar, this has also caused Chinese exports to be priced lower.

Most analysts think that if the yuan were allowed to float, it would come in around 5 yuan per dollar, meaning an instant 60% increase in the price of nearly everything Wal-Mart buys.

China is currently keeping the dollar on life support by buying it, as it will hurt China to have the dollar collapse as well. (Actually, it would likely be a worldwide recession, but a Depression at home...)

However, if China decided to wait to let their currency float, they could change it to being tied to the Euro or the Yen - most likely the Euro as being too closely associated with Japan won't sit well with many Chinese - and then China would no longer have incentive to buy the dollar.

[ProfessorGAC]

6. I Doubt There Is A Real Issue Here

Look i tend to disbelieve all the dollar v. euro stuff. First, from a purely econometric point of view, there is no evidence that the U.S. is losing it's economic preeminence, and that loss has always preceded the shift in dominant currency. The currency shifting first is the tail wagging the dog.

Also, the neocons are very concerned about this sort of thing. Since i think they've been wrong about nearly everything, i can't see any reason to support this concern. I disagree with them almost completely, and if they're worried about the euro, it's a fundamental reason for me to believe that there's nothing to worry about.

Add to this the lack of an econometric basis for this concern, and i think it's much ado about nothing.

All that being said, yes i do think the 'war on terror' is related to this concern. Like i said, if they think it, it's probably wrong.
The Professor