Lebanon is a VERY strange case!

[BurtWorm]

According to Wikipedia, there has been no official census in Lebanon since 1932, a fact that reflects "political sensitivity in Lebanon over confessional (religious) balance." It is, therefore, barely possible to even guesstimate how popular the so-called "Cedar Revolution" is compared to Hizbollah, much less how a "free democratic election" would turn out.

I'm just trying to answer a simple question: what is the breakdown of the factions in Lebanon? Who wants Syria out--what percentage of the population? What percentage of the Muslim population is Shiite compared to Sunni? What do the Sunni want from Syria? Can anyone on DU answer any of these questions?

[Southsideirish]

1. The term "Cedar Revolution" was made up by our State Department.

It figures that it sounds very "Madison Avenue" doesn't it?

[CottonBear]

2. C-Span Washington Journal had a Lebanon discussion today.

The guest was from a US based policy institute. The callers had some excellent questions. You might check it out in the C-Span archives. I had to leave for work and missed the last half of the segment.

[BurtWorm]

3. I didn't trust that guy.

I want straight answers, not propaganda.

[CottonBear]

5. I didn't trust him either.

The callers were pressing for straight answers but he was a bit evasive.

[BurtWorm]

8. I don't trust anyone whose area of "expertise" is "terrorism."

Not that I don't think there's such a phenomenon, but when we're talking about the Middle East, "terrorism" is a charged word. Does Hizbollah say it engages in terrorism, for example? I doubt it. Of course that doesn't mean that it DOESN'T engage in terrorism, but I think they call their "terrorists" militia members. I know of some types here in the US that call themselves militia members. A couple of them blew up the Murrah building in Oklahoma City.

[Mnemosyne]

4. Israel wants Syria out of Lebannon, not sure why. nt

[BurtWorm]

6. Are you serious?

It seems obvious why, considering the Palestinian refugee camps on the border and an ancient fear among Maronite Christians in Lebanon that Syria has long had designs on the country as a whole.

[Mnemosyne]

17. Sorry, have memory problems and count on others sometimes

to refresh it. I am not stupid.

[BurtWorm]

18. I felt bad about my subject line.

I didn't mean any offense. I thought you might be being sarcastic. I was really genuinely wanting to know if you were being serious.

Believe me, I find this whole topic confusing. I'm sorry if I caused offense. :hi:

[Mnemosyne]

19. None taken. Thanks for being a caring person.

;) ;) :toast:

[Malikshah]

7. Actually-- this goes back to the Begin's govt during the late 70s and

early 80s

Prior to Gemayel's assassination, Begin et al had worked out a deal re: the ousting of the PLO and support of the Gemayel's Maronite govt.

Syria and Gemayel--not good friends.

It's a complex issue--but if you go back and read the history of the civil war (especially from 78-82) much of what's going on now becomes clear.

[RaleighNCDUer]

12. "If we can't have it, nobody can." n/t

[punpirate]

9. Without an official census...

... it's hard to say. But, estimates of population by religion around the time of partitioning (Jan. 1, 1944) put the Christian Arabs (Maronists, Coptics, etc.) at about 600,000, while Muslim sects accounted for about 500-550,000.

Since Lebanon was once a part of Syria, and since Syria is predominantly Sunni (as is neighboring Egypt), most Muslims are probably Sunnis.

Emigration, particularly during and after the prolonged civil war has likely affected that balance, too.

If the older estimates have held, it's about 50/50 Christian/Muslim. Given other worldwide trends, though, I would guess that the Muslim community in Lebanon is larger by now, in part because of migration of Palestinians out of the occupied territories and into Lebanon due to the difficulties there.

[BurtWorm]

11. According to Wikipedia, Christians make up 40% of the population.

Seems like a lot of Christians emigrated during and after the Civil War.

[Inland]

10. Nope. In fact, the #s are a huge part of the ongoing problem

Why nobody looks at Lebanon for the way Iraq is going is beyond me.

The Lebanese Civil War came about because Lebanon didn't run a pure democracy--instead, there was an agreement by which certain posts would be controlled by different constituencies, based in part on the census and in part on economic power.

That civil war dribbled on as the constituent groups finally came up with something that redistributed power. But you can see why nobody can agree on a new census.

The lesson for Iraq would be that the constituent groups of Shiites, Sunnis, Christians, Kurds, Turkmen and a couple of others have to expressly recognize protections for one another and institutionalize representation of groups as groups in the government. Heck, we do that informally in the Chicago area--an african american, an irishman and a pole divvy up the top executive jobs, and soon the pole's job will go to a hispanic. It gives confidence in the government.

[bif]

13. Did you ctach the interview on NPR yestereday?

It was on All Things Considered. Very interesting. If you didn't, I'll try and find a link for you.

Here's a link:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4527335

[BurtWorm]

14. No I didn't hear it, but I will give it a listen tonight.

Thanks for the link. Can you synopsize it?

[bif]

15. It was mailnly focused on thei system of Govt.

Three men share power. And it's been that way for a long time. A Sunni, Shiite and a Maronite Christian. And it also dealt with the census of 1932. Christians were in the majority (slight) and now the Muslims are in the majority. But the commentator said that the Lebanse were okay with sharing power. They figured the figures were close enough to 50% not to make a big deal out of it. That said, I don't know why Bush is making a big deal out of it now. Unles he's a total tool of Israel. Or just a total tool.

[BurtWorm]

16. It's pretty clear that Bush is looking for another country to "get tough"

with. It doesn't cost him anything, because other people pay for everything he does. It only gains him something.