If I were working at GM or Ford now, I will send out my resumes pronto!

[KlatooBNikto]

Those two companies seem to be headed downhill fast. Consider:

1.In Texas, the most rabid users of SUVs and trucks made by Ford and GM, there is now a swelling market for Toyota , Nissan and soon, Honda's heavy trucks.These are the most profitable segment of GM and Ford's business and Texas happens to be one of GM and Ford's monopoly playgrounds. When that wall has been breached, we can expect aflood soon. The rest is going to be accomplished by the persistence of high gas prices.

2.China is expected to enter the U.S. market at the low end with cars designed by Toyota,Chrysler and VW. This is expected as early as 2007 according to Bob Lutz, GM's Vice Chair in an article in the NYT two days ago.

3. The middle segment autos have been ceded to the Japanese and Germans by the U.S. auto industry.

All in all, Dieter Zetsche's( Daimler-Chrysler Chair) warning that all scenarios of the future look bleak is coming true.

I will add this thing.The bleak prognosis for GM and Ford may well be a metaphor for Bush regime's coming downfall after the hubris of shock and awe wears out.

[Wright Patman]

1. I expect we will finally see "protectionism"

from the U.S. Congress before we will see Chinese-made autos flooding the U.S. market.

They will make it a "national security" argument that GM and Ford must be preserved because of their importance to the MIC.

[NNN0LHI]

2. Don't count on that

The big three would be happy if they never sold another car built in America. They would prefer to just be in the finance business these days. And they don't care where the cars are made as long as they are doing the financing. Been that way for over a decade now. Retired autoworker here who keeps an eye on this stuff.

Don

[Dogmudgeon]

3. Wait until the energy future bites them in the ass

It takes a lot of energy to ship cars from China to Europe or North America. The lower-priced tier of automobiles will suddenly become the middle tier. What do you then think will happen with all those idled auto factories in North America and Europe?

This kind of "outsourcing" is a short-term money grab. We may be evolving to a world-wide rock-bottom-wage slave economy, but this part of it won't be long-term.

Welcome to the future. Would you like fries with that?

--p!

[Kolesar]

4. Could you see sails on the oil tankers and container ships?

They would have to be on the Ro-Ro automobile transports, too (roll on, roll off). Petroleum is going to be just so precious that no one could afford to buy enough to steam across the Pacific and still make a profit.

[Dogmudgeon]

5. At least the prevailing winds are West to East

I've occasionally wondered why no one has tried to build a modern wind-driven seacraft as large as an oil tanker or a container boat. It would be an interesting exercise in nautical engineering, and it could actually be useful in the future.

After all, lighter-than-air craft are making a comeback.

Reverting to "older" technologies is not such an absurd idea.

On the other hand, the real technological absurdity is the automobile, and it will become even more absurd in a very short time.

--p!
Hoist the bo'sun and keel-haul the mizzenmast, me boy!

[KlatooBNikto]

6. My favorite is a bionic horse, capable of doing 80 miles per hour

on land, on a bag of oats.With a range of 450 miles. With additional research, the horse should become capable of flying like Pegasus.

Like it?

[Dogmudgeon]

8. Does it have a built-in thermal depolymerization unit?

Sounds like it. What a cool technology!

As for the flying model, are there any plans for an intermediate-tech model, like one that glides, or that sells tickets over Priceline?

--p!

[KlatooBNikto]

11. This is a real horse that is genetically engineered to meet the speed,

flying and endurance specs.

[Snotcicles]

7. I see GM going hydrogen soon

Big oil is screwing them. I'd love to see them screw back.

[KlatooBNikto]

9. GM is going bankrupt before going Hydrogen.

[cliss]

10. I'm watching this story pretty closely.

Here's what I think will happen:

1) GM will file for bankruptcy. Expect something to happen around June. Bankruptcies are usually filed on a Sunday, so it will be in the Monday newspapers. GM Financing is currently rated one notch above Junk Bonds.

2) They will try to get out of their pension obligations. I believe they're unfunded right now. Which means that anyone who is getting a pension or is expecting one, better follow this story carefully. GM will try to foist their pension onto the government. (see LBN thread, "United passes on pension to US Govt".

3) Ford might follow. They will use GM as a test case. If all goes well and GM can unload its pension obligation, then Ford might try to do the same thing. Problem: Ford purchased Volvo abot 10 years ago. It caused huge clashes in Sweden, where most Swedes did not want to do it. Just imagine what will happen to the Swedish economy. Volvo made up about 10% of the GDP in that country. Disaster.

4) Current workers can always find other jobs, although probbably not at the same pay rate. It's the retired ones or the ones near retirement that I worry about.