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Edited on Fri Sep-19-03 06:44 PM by TakebackAmerica
The Top 12 House Races of 2004. <4 Vulnerable Republicans and 4 Vulnerable Democrats and 4 Races to Watch.>
Endangered Republican Incumbents
Anne Northrup- Kentucky 3rd Congressional District 52-48 50-48 Gore
Highly Competitive:
Since her 1996 election, she has survived three Democratic onslaughts. For the 2002 campaign, Democrats recruited Jack Conway. He ran an aggressive campaign against Rep. Northrup. Despite being outspent 2-1, Conway was able to keep this race close throughout. Northrup hammered Conway on his close ties to embattled Governor Paul Patton. On Election Day 2002, she won a narrow victory, 52-48. Her fundraising prowess has helped her hold on to the only Democratic leaning district in Kentucky. This is the only district in Kentucky that Gore carried, and it has a sizeable black and union population. If Democrats put up a strong candidate, they will be in a solid position to reclaim this district.
John Hostettler- Indiana 8th Congressional District 51-46 56-42 Bush
Highly Competitive:
Indiana’s 8th Congressional District was named the “Bloody Eighth” because of its reputation of close elections stemming back to 1984 when Frank McCloskey beat Richard McIntyre by 4 votes, 116,645 to 116,641. This district is the epitome of a swing district. According to the “2002 Almanac of American Politics,” this district at one point during the 1970s elected four congressmen in four successive elections. Since 1994, Rep. Hostettler has survived four close reelection bids. Yet Hostettler has raised a mere $5,018. He is the exact opposite of Northrup, having been out- spent, in two of his last three races. Rep. Hostettler has grown accustom to the close elections in the district. Expect this race to be heavily targeted by Democrats, who have a top notch candidate in Jon Jennings.
Most Vulnerable Republican Freshman
Max Burns- Georgia 12th Congressional District 55-45 54-45 Gore
Highly Competitive:
The father of Max Burns’ opponent, State Senate Majority Leader Charles Walker Sr., created this district for his son, much to the dismay of the voters. Rep. Burns was able to use voter dissatisfaction with Democratic redistricting and President Bush’s popularity to his advantage. On Election Day, Charles Walker Jr. and his father were defeated. The perception of Democratic gerrymandering haunted Georgia Democrats that year. This is the only district in Georgia that Al Gore won that is represented by a non black Democrat. Rep. Burns would be extremely vulnerable against a strong well-financed opponent. This predominantly Democratic district is the wrong place for a conservative like Max Burns. Rep. Burns is the weakest Republican incumbent in America.
Rick Renzi - Arizona 1st Congressional District 49-46 51-46 Bush
Highly Competitive:
Update: Change from Competitive to Highly Competitive
This is a classic swing district. Rep. Renzi dodged a bullet when Steve Udall was upset in the Democratic primary by George Cordova. National democrats were disappointed at Udall’s defeat and were slow to give to Cordova. Rep. Renzi outspent Cordova 2-1. Republicans also poured over four million dollars into this race. Renzi was bolstered by a last minute visit by President Bush. After all the money Republicans spent and Bush’s visit, Renzi only won by 49-46. The result of the election showed how close this swing district really is. If Steve Udall runs, or another strong Democrat gets into this race, it could quickly become one of the closest House races in America. Update: It now appears that Paul Babbitt, Bruce Babbitt’s brother, will run against Rep. Renzi. This development could provide Democrats thill the top notch candidate they have sought
Endangered Democratic Incumbents
Dennis Moore- Kansas 3rd Congressional District 50-47 53-42 Bush
Highly Competitive:
The sole Democratic congressman in Kansas is highly endangered. After two close reelection bids, expect Republicans to go aggressively after this district. Against heavy underdog former Air Force pilot Adam Taff, Rep. Moore won by only 50-47. This moderate suburban Republican district is a misfit for a liberal Democrat like Moore. There have been bitter Republican primaries in the last two elections. They have pitted a moderate, electable Republican against an ideological conservative. In both elections the more conservative was chosen over the moderate. If Republicans avoid their annual primary bloodbath and nominate a moderate, this could be the year the Republicans defeat Rep. Moore.
Jim Matheson- Utah 2nd Congressional District 67-31 Bush
Highly Competitive:
In 2000 Rep. Matheson defeated Republican Derek Smith who had upset embattled Republican incumbent Merrill Cook in the Primary.
Republicans radically changed the lines in this district, taking out most of the metro Salt Lake City areas. On the heels of their successful redistricting, Republicans recruited John Swallow to run against Rep. Matheson.
In a race that went down to the wire, Matheson prevailed by 2,015 votes out of 214,961.If the Republicans have a strong candidate, expect this once again to be one of the tightest races in America.
Most Vulnerable Democratic Freshmen
Rodney Alexander- Louisiana 5th Congressional district 50-50 57-40 Bush
Highly Competitive:
On November 5th, Lee Fletcher defeated Clyde Holloway 24.5 -23.0 to move on to the run-off. Former frontrunner Holloway was still bitter after his loss. He staged a press conference to bash Fletcher, saying, “He is not what this state needs. ….He will do anything to win and he scares me.” One week before the election, a Mason-Dixon poll showed Lee Fletcher leading Rodney Alexander 48-40. On December 7, Rodney Alexander, in a major upset, defeated Lee Fletcher 50.3 -49.7. The increased black turnout due to Sen. Mary Landrieu close re-election battle may have carried Alexander over the top. Republicans are expected to heavily target this race. Bush carried this predominantly conservative district by 21 points in 2000 and with Bush on top of the ticket could make this race too close to call.
Jim Marshall- Georgia 3rd Congressional district 50-50 51-47 Bush
Highly Competitive:
Despite being outspent 2-1, Marshall eked out a victory over Calder Clay III 50.5 -49.5. This was after Democratic redistricters tried to move as many minority voters into swing districts as possible. This was followed by a surge of outrage from voters. They promptly defeated Governor Roy Barnes, electing the first Republican governor in Georgia in 128 years, unseating Senator Max Cleland. The Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader were both swept away in the GOP tide. They elected Phil Gingery and Max Burns to districts specially redistricted for Democrats. Rep. Marshall was lucky escape the Republican tide that had enveloped so many of the state’s Democrats. Bush narrowly carried this swing district, 51-47. Expect this to be one of the top 10 house races of 2004.
Races to Watch
Earl Pomeroy: Last year he narrowly survived his first close challenge in years. The only congressman in a Republican state, Rep Pomeroy is very vulnerable to a Republican challenge. North Dakota’s all Democratic Delegation will eventually end and Pomeroy could be the first of the Democratic trio to go. In 2000 Bush won 62- 33 this could be an omen that Rep. Pomeroy’s days are numbered.
Ken Lucas: Kentucky’s lone Democrat, Rep. Lucas, keeps Kentucky’s tradition of electing at least one Democrat since 1828 alive. But in a district that voted Bush by an overwhelming margin, 61-37 Rep. Lucas will always have tough fights. This district is so conservative that in 2000 despite outspending his opponent buy more than 9-1 he only won 54-44. Once he retires or is defeated Democrats will be hard pressed to take regain this district.
Tim Holden: Republican redistricters eliminated Rep. Holden’s district put him in unknown conservative territory and pitted him against veteran GOP congressman George Gekas. Though Bush won this district by 56-41 this turned out to be a terrible mistake for the Republicans. Gekas had not been in an election battle since he was first elected. Gekas seemed stiff and did not campaign well. While Holden knocked doors and ran a strong and aggressive campaign. Despite the GOP sweep, Holden squeaked through on Election Day, 51-49
Tim Bishop: On July 17 1999 Rep. Mike Forbes shocked everyone by announcing that he would switch parties and become a Democrat. This set into motion one of the weirdest two election cycles in recent history. Democrats immediately embraced Forbes’ decision as an omen of the Democrats retaking the House in 2000. But the National Republican Congressional Committee wisely ran ads and put up bulletins calling Forbes an extremist. Local Democrats wary of Forbes did not fully support him and instead backed Regina Seltzer. Mrs. Seltzer on Primary Day, September 12 2000, in a stunning upset, defeated Rep. Forbes by 35 votes out of12,119 votes cast. The GOP celebrated and their nominee Felix Grucci coasted to an easy victory 56-41. Grucci lead his opponent by 30 points in polls just six weeks before the election. Grucci ran a negative ad that miserably backfired. Tim Bishop blasted him with ads attacking his environmental record. On Election Day 2002, Tim Bishop upset Felix Grucci 51-49. Who knows if 2004 will bring another bizarre election?
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