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Iraqi WMDs: Incompetence or Lies - The ONLY explanations. IT’S SO OBVIOUS!

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Brotherjohn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 11:38 AM
Original message
Iraqi WMDs: Incompetence or Lies - The ONLY explanations. IT’S SO OBVIOUS!
Edited on Thu May-26-05 11:43 AM by Brotherjohn
WHY can’t people see it?!? AAAGGGHHH!!!

I’m sorry, but this is going to be just another long rant on the subject, prompted by reading Walter Pincus’s story in Sunday’s Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/21/AR2005052100474_pf.html). Although he may not have been the one who decided to move it from Page 1 to 26, and although there are some strong statements buried in it (like “many U.S. intelligence analysts were internally questioning almost every major piece of prewar intelligence about Hussein's alleged weapons programs”), it was nevertheless a milquetoast piece detailing how some prewar findings “worried” some analysts. It reads like a damn personal interest piece!

Yet it is SO DAMNABLY OBVIOUS to anyone who paid attention that the Bush administration clearly ignored contrary evidence and slanted what evidence there was to support their contention that Iraq had WMDs.

For starters, there’s this:
http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/they_knew_0802/
And this:
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2005/05/19/lies/

These two articles are the two best synopses I’ve found detailing the facts that the Bush administration knew that their case for Iraqi WMDs was much shakier than they were publicly saying, and that they wanted to go to war with Iraq no matter what the evidence said. I’d recommend that anyone widely circulate these two articles.

But IT’S JUST COMMON SENSE, DAMN IT!!

Imagine that you are in the White House, and your administration is claiming that you need to initiate an unprovoked invasion of a sovereign nation based on your contention that they have WMDs. Your two linchpins for the nuclear case are this: they have tried to obtain uranium from Africa, and they have imported aluminum tubes “only suitable” for uranium enrichment. Imagine that the IAEA, the world’s expert on the subject (who are on the ground in Iraq at your urging) have directly contradicted you. They have said that the case for uranium is based on forged documents, and that the aluminum tubes are most likely for conventional mortar rockets and “not directly suitable” for uranium enrichment. Several newspaper accounts report this, and it is all a matter of public record.

Now remember, you are about to launch a pre-emptive war based on pre-empting this very threat. Do you bother to go back and check your claims? Do you find out that your own intelligence agencies have repeatedly warned you that the uranium claim was unreliable (to the point of calling and e-mailing the NSC, calls and e-mails which Condoleeza Rice does not recall getting)? Do you discover that they sent an expert to Africa who made the same conclusions about the uranium deal? Do you even do the 10-minute Google search that it took the IAEA to determine that the documents could not have been authentic? Do you think twice at all when you see that in the National Intelligence Estimate on the subject, your best experts on nuclear weapons technology (Dept. of Energy), as well as the State Department, agree with the IAEA’s claims?

Or do you simply say, when confronted with the fact that the IAEA has concluded that Iraq does NOT have a nuclear weapons program, “I think Mr. ElBaradei frankly is wrong” and “We believe he has, in fact, reconstituted nuclear weapons” (Vice President Cheney on Meet the Press, March 16, 2003; http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/bush/cheneymeetthepress.htm).

These aren’t just minor points in a larger argument. They are specific points you’re repeatedly bringing up in speeches to make the case for war to the American people, Congress, and the world. They are the two key pieces of evidence backing your claims of the threat of a “mushroom cloud”.

One would think you’d want to be sure, right? I don’t CARE if your CIA chief tells you it’s a “slam dunk” case. If you’re the president, wouldn’t you say to him: “Yeah, but how come the IAEA says these documents are forgeries? And how come the Dept. of Energy and State Department say the aluminum tubes are NOT for uranium enrichment?”

Or do you just leave decisions of war and peace up to low-level intelligence operatives, without personally reviewing at least your key claims and their bases?

This is just on the subject of alleged nuclear weapons (perhaps the main public motivation for war). Nearly every other point the administration made to support their case for an unprecedented pre-emptive war was publicly debated by United Nations Inspectors on the ground in Iraq, elements in our own and other countries’ intelligence communities, and various news reports.

Again, one would think you’d want to be sure, right?

Instead, they just stuck to their guns about Iraqi WMDs and initiated an unprecedented war of choice, a war meant to pre-empt an attack from these alleged WMDs. Yet each and every claim of Iraqi WMDs was proven dead wrong.

The only two possible explanations are:
(A) They KNEW their case for Iraqi WMDs was weak at best. Despite this, they LIED to convince Congress and the American people that war was necessary.
(B) They were so UTTERLY INCOMPETENT as to not even see or investigate the multitude of conflicting claims and evidence. They simply took what evidence/claims agreed with their policy, and ignored or discounted the rest. The entire administration was “intellectually incurious”, to the point of initiating a war of choice because they couldn't be bothered to see if that choice was really necessary.

These are the ONLY explanations. Neither of them are good, and both of them worthy of at least impeachment. I personally believe (A), because the kind of rank incompetence it would take for (B) to be true is simply not plausible. The second article above also points to this explanation.

People, we were taken into a major war, by choice, because some people either WANTED that war no matter what, or made the most INCOMPETENT “miscalculation’ in the history of our country. This is the most important issue of our time, and the one everyone should be shouting from the hilltops. It’s more important that whether or not any election was stolen, because while I’m aware that Bush’s election made Iraq possible, the lies that led to the Iraq War were so incredibly OBVIOUS that it is easily demonstrated.

Lies or Incompetence. Lies or Incompetence. Lies or Incompetence. Repeat ad infinitum.
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BlueEyedSon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 11:39 AM
Response to Original message
1. Either way, they liars/incompetent ones should be fired or charged
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Goldmund Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 11:42 AM
Response to Original message
2. I think at this point if you think this gang is incompetent,
Edited on Thu May-26-05 11:43 AM by Goldmund
I don't know what to tell you. You've swallowed it hook, line, and sinker. (General "you", not you personally). They WANT you to believe they're incompetent and that's why they put up the monkey as their public face. They aren't incompetent. They're brilliant. Way, way smarter than we (general "we") are.
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Brotherjohn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 11:52 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. We know they lied through their teeth. But most people are buying the...
Edited on Thu May-26-05 11:54 AM by Brotherjohn
... "misled by intelligence" argument.

But my whole point (or rant; sorry) is that this argument doesn't wash. They would have to be tremendously incompetent to have been so easily misled, so much so that it isn't plausible.

Yet it's the only other POSSIBLE explanation. And it is eqaually as damning than if they lied.

My point is that "incompetence' is an argument that can convince many of those yet to be convinced, whereas lying is one that would take a whole lot more evidence. Yet these two explanations are the only possible ones.

I mean, come on... the National Security Adviser "doesn't recall" getting repeated messages from the head of the CIA warning not to use a key claim in the upcoming State of the Union address?!? The President repeatedly claims things are rock-solid certain when the best experts in the world are directly and publicly contradicting him? That at least makes these claims somewhat uncertain, doesn't it?

Incompetence or lying. One or the other.
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Goldmund Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. Well,
if by "possible" you mean "logically possible", theoretically possible, then ok, that works within the relatively narrow system of arguments you've outlined. But I think there's more than plenty of evidence of lying. Now, if you're talking about FAUX drones and how to handle them, you may be right that this is a better strategy. What I'm saying is that it pains me that it is still the liberal mantra that these guys are "incompetent" and most liberals still sincerely believe that.
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dbonds Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 12:29 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Very true.
By putting up the face of incompetence they can just go 'gosh darn, we would never have thought of that, ... duh'. But they are not complete geniuses either, they have made mistakes. They are not smarter than us, they just got a head start on their plan and have giant nads. Well, I'm sure they are smarter than half the country, but that just means they have an average I.Q.
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Goldmund Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 12:34 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Well,
Edited on Thu May-26-05 12:35 PM by Goldmund
look at it this way: they work for less than 1% of the population at the expense of everyone else, and they're running political circles (and keep getting elected, may I add, whether by well-disguised fraud or not) around those who work for 99% of the people. As long as that's the case, I think it's pretty much empirical that they have an edge in the brains/competence department.
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dbonds Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 01:14 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. I'd give the edge to corruption and balls.
But most of their plans are completely transparent. How many did you not see coming? Was there ever a moment the WMD wasn't obvious, paperless voting machines, OBL getting away, ... The list goes on and on. None of this stuff was so cleaver, just ballsie. Of course it helps their corruption to have the media in their control, which is why more people didn't see the red flags. Maybe it's just me and my hate for bush Sr, but I didn't trust a thing shrub did from day 1.
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Goldmund Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 01:20 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. It doesn't matter if I saw it
They don't design their plans so that you or I are oblivious to them. They design them so that their voters -- at least 50% of all voters is all they need -- are oblivious to them, and more generally, so that they can get what they want. Have they gotten almost everything they've wanted? Yes. Have we? No. End of story. You can call it "corruption" (which also requires smarts, by the way, and it isn't like the Democrats aren't corrupt anyway) or "balls" or "brilliance" -- doesn't matter. The only purpose of it is to achieve goals, and they have.
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