Demise of the Middle class predicted by National Intelligence 2020 Report

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Report of the
National Intelligence Council's
2020 Project:

The transition will not be painless and will hit the middle classes of the developed world in particular, bringing more rapid job turnover and requiring professional retooling. Outsourcing on a large scale would strengthen the anti-globalization movement. Where these pressures lead will depend on how political leaders respond, how flexible labor markets become, and whether overall economic growth is sufficiently robust to absorb a growing number of displaced workers.

http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020_es.html

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1. Second Wave of Outsourcing to hit well-educated middle-income workers

In fact, say economists, the trade pressure from globalization is certain to increase. Here's a big reason why: 15 years after U.S. and European multinationals started shipping large numbers of manufacturing jobs overseas, experts are saying that the "second wave" of offshoring is at hand—and it promises to be bigger and more disruptive to the U.S. and European job markets than the first. In the years ahead, sizable numbers of skilled, reasonably well-educated middle-income workers in service-sector jobs long considered safe from foreign trade—accounting, law, financial and risk management, health care and information technology, to name a few—could be facing layoffs or serious wage pressure as developing nations perform increasingly sophisticated offshore work. The shift portends a dramatic realignment of wealth over the next couple of generations—valued by the U.S. consultancy McKinsey Co. at "hundreds of billions of dollars."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7936464/site/newsweek/

[acmavm]

5. All this outsourcing to foreign nations does not need to occur. There is

no reason that these jobs shouldn't stay right here in this country. In fact, companies that outsource should be heavily penalized for not supporting this country, our economy, and its citizens. If they don't want to do that, then they should not be able to enjoy the same rights and privleges of companies that do.

[progressivebydesign]

9. These companies should lose ANY tax breaks for that. n/t

[followthemoney]

2. Greenspan, in an audio clip reported on Free Speech Radio...

Said middle class wages are declining and action needed to be taken. I didn't hear that reported among the other glowing reports on the economy.

[Just Me]

3. Is this a prediction or a plan?

Seriously.

Is this a prediction based upon a plan to concentrate wealth or is it really a report that supports such a plan?

:shrug:

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10. prediction

whether it is based on a plan to concentrate wealth or just the way globalization works, the report doesnt say.

[acmavm]

4. Some scary stuff here: But are we to believe this when their info was so

faulty before??

<snip>

While no single country looks within striking distance of rivaling US military power by 2020, more countries will be in a position to make the United States pay a heavy price for any military action they oppose. The possession of chemical, biological, and/or nuclear weapons by Iran and North Korea and the possible acquisition of such weapons by others by 2020 also increase the potential cost of any military action by the US against them or their allies.

The success of the US-led counterterrorism campaign will hinge on the capabilities and resolve of individual countries to fight terrorism on their own soil. Counterterrorism efforts in the years ahead—against a more diverse set of terrorists who are connected more by ideology than by geography—will be a more elusive challenge than focusing on a centralized organization such as al-Qa’ida. A counterterrorism strategy that approaches the problem on multiple fronts offers the greatest chance of containing—and ultimately reducing—the terrorist threat. The development of more open political systems and representation, broader economic opportunities, and empowerment of Muslim reformers would be viewed positively by the broad Muslim communities who do not support the radical agenda of Islamic extremists.

Even if the numbers of extremists dwindle, however, the terrorist threat is likely to remain. The rapid dispersion of biological and other lethal forms of technology increases the potential for an individual not affiliated with any terrorist group to be able to wreak widespread loss of life. Despite likely high-tech breakthroughs that will make it easier to track and detect terrorists at work, the attacker will have an easier job than the defender because the defender must prepare against a large array of possibilities. The United States probably will continue to be called on to help manage such conflicts as Palestine, North Korea, Taiwan, and Kashmir to ensure they do not get out of hand if a peace settlement cannot be reached. However, the scenarios and trends we analyze in the paper suggest the possibility of harnessing the power of the new players in contributing to global security and relieving the US of some of the burden.

(MORE)

[newportdadde]

6. Very interesting read.

<snip>

Davos World provides an illustration of how robust economic growth, led by China and India, over the next 15 years could reshape the globalization process—giving it a more non-Western face and transforming the political playing field as well.


Pax Americana takes a look at how US predominance may survive the radical changes to the global political landscape and serve to fashion a new and inclusive global order.


A New Caliphate provides an example of how a global movement fueled by radical religious identity politics could constitute a challenge to Western norms and values as the foundation of the global system.


Cycle of Fear provides an example of how concerns about proliferation might increase to the point that large-scale intrusive security measures are taken to prevent outbreaks of deadly attacks, possibly introducing an Orwellian world.

</snip>

[Double T]

7. The demise of the middle class will fuel deflation throughout..

the world.

[doodadem]

8. My husband keeps saying

he does not want to know who the next United States is, because he is sure it won't be America.
There's more than one way to bring a country to heel other than military might--something Bush just doesn't get, or has ulterior motives. As we've discussed before at length, China, Japan, and others hold the vast majority of our debt.
American jobs continue to flow overseas, you don't have to be brilliant to see we are going to be speaking Chinese (hey--did I just write a good song lyric, or what?!)

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11. kick

eom

[PATRICK]

12. Real rotten thought processes

Captivated by fear and the absolute lack of imagination that anything can be done, that politicians need to be anything except mediocre drones working out ways of "controlling" their own people(like noisy children) and that the pillars of civilization are only material- which is why religion is always feared or a special object of control by the cynically irreligious. What it presumes and passes or withholds judgment upon are in fact matters of choice and plasticity. This is determinism as its worst and the people doing the determining can't even imagine they have blame in any of these outcomes. Just keep the people in control.

The Ministry of Fear as futurologists should be compared to other visions, probably none more prescient than the other to the unpredictable and the better angels of human behavior.