We Are Heading Towards a Landslide (Bush's approval erroding everywhere)

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

I think we are heading towards a landslide election in 2006 and probably a bigger one in 2008. 2006 is going to be big, but 2008 will be a perfect storm. And this is all for one simple reason. You guessed it, Iraq. Newsweek has Bush's job approval at 42%, AP at 42%, CBS 45%, Zogby 45% and Gallup 44%. The pillar of his very legitimacy is terrorism, which is the issue he always has and still does poll the best on. It use to be in the 70% range. Every poll now has him just above 50%. And look at this link: http://www.surveyusa.com/Bush50StateApproval0605.htm

It is a breakdown and analysis of Bush's approval, state by state. In only 9 states is his approval above 50%. Here in Texas, his approval is 50%, disapproval 47% (idiots finally are realizing that just because he drives a pickup truck doesn't make him a good president). Bush has double digit net disapproval in 20 states and net approval in only 16. In OH Bush's approval is 40%, disapproval 57% (which explains Hackett's success). In NV his approval is 37%, disapproval 57% (which could be trouble for Senator Ensign, who is up next year).

Besides that, 4 rep senator seats up next year look vulnerable. We all know the story about Santorum in PA, behind 10% or more in every poll against his challenger. In OH, DeWine has a 37% approval and 31% reelect numbers. Hackett could knock him off. Not to mention Bush's approval in OH is horrible. In TN, the seat is open, Bush's approval in that state is 48%, disapproval 49%, and the only poll I have seen puts Harold Ford in a tie with his challenger (taken a long time ago, when Bush's approval was higher), with a large number of undecideds. In RI Chafee is in trouble. He is facing a possible primary challenge from a guy named Laffey for one. In the general election I haven't seen any polls with him behind, but I also haven't seen any with him polling much above 42% against any challenger. Sheldon Whitehouse, his possible challenger polls just behind him, with a lot of undecideds. Lackluster support is bad news for a sitting senator against an unknown possible challenger. Bush's approval (33% approval, 66% disapproval in RI) will drive all of this.

Besides that, there are 7 rep governor vacancies in 2006, including NY, AR, OH (current rep OH gov Taft approval is 17%) and CO. Besides that, the governors of CA, MN, MA, MD, and maybe GA (plus AL which I don't count as Roy Moore will probably be the next AL governor) are all unpopular and up next year. The only dem retirement is the popular Vilsack in IA. All of the dem governors up in red states (AZ, OK, KS, TN ect) have high approval. The DCCC has done polling showing 10 highly vulnerable rep congressmen, and the special election in OH might suggest this.

2008 could be worse. By then, Bush's approval will have another 3 years to erode, Iraq will have been a mess for 5 years, and one thing that wont happen in 2006 WILL happen in 2008: Bush will be blamed for Iraq, largely because it will be clear that he will leave this mess to the next president. Finally you will have the 2008 presidential race, and the dems have 9 fewer senate seats to defend (12 dems, 21 reps are up in 2008). If Mark Warner doesn't run for president, he will easily be able to pick up John Warners seat if he retires, because in 2008 when he comes up for reelection, he will be 81. Specter barely won reelection and has cancer. He is up in 2010 (when he will be 81), and whenever he leaves, the seat will be a guaranteed dem pickup.

[leftofthedial]

1. assuming there are actual elections

instead of the shams we've had ever since the coup of 2000 (actually the 1998 midterms).

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

5. shams are easy when your approval is 65%

Which is why Bush was able to silence dissent in 2002. His 53% approval (same as Clintons in 1996) was enough for him to win. But since Nov 3, 2004, Bush's standing has been decimated.

[leftofthedial]

16. I still don't know how he gets anything near the approval he does get

how anyone could not be screaming for him to resign is beyond me.

[Carni]

56. I think his true approval rating is tops 30%

And thinking logically it may be 3% which is the ratio of people who benefit from his stupid ass being in office in this country (and half of them are probably liberals)

[n2doc]

48. wait for the mysterious increase in popularity in fall 06

Near the elections. If you look at graphs of *'s polls last year, the highest "value" was in November, the overall trend was downward the whole year except for then. Now, maybe a few billion dollars in propaganda was the reason, or maybe it was something else...Just a tinfoil explanation. We must never, ever expect anything to be simple or easy when it comes to getting these bastards out of office and into Jail. Polls can be easily manipulated, if not outright lies then just ask only the "right" people....

[fearnobush]

15. Agreed, I'll take this hope and use it much like my Prayers to the FSM.

It seems these days only he with his Noodly Appendage can save voting from being stolen by our satanic GOP.

<>

<http://www.venganza.org/>

[leftofthedial]

43. we can only pray

that a noodly appendage will save us

[Carolab]

42. Right.

And also assuming that nothing "happens" to secure the coup d'etat in the meanwhile...

[screembloodymurder]

47. Face it, they will never allow a fair election.

They're crooks. They have a long history of fixing elections. The only way we win is by force.

[Ian David]

2. If we allow the Democrats to save America, the gays will destroy marriage!

Oh, the horror!

[Bucky]

3. By "landslide" do you mean a major military confrontation with Korea?

Just askin'.

(please note that I am not using that annoying "shrug" smily)

But seriously, three years is a LONG time. Things will happen to bolster his support. In the great tradition of democracy, Bush will do things to make it look like he's tracking to the center. His most extreme policies will whither away and he'll get up and do some grandstanding on some market-tested issue that will fix his numbers back up past 50%. The most logical thing is a big force build-down before the 2006 elections. Expect that. They may go back over in early 2007, but he's certain to payload his biggest deadweight before an election. Democracies force pol to do that--that's why they work so well.

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

13. I wasn't talking about 2008 mainly

2006 is a little over a year away. Iraq is controlling his approval. Just like there was nothing we could do to lower his approval when it was 60%, there is nothing he can do to increase it while it is close to 40%. The only thing that will save him is the insurgency getting much better. He wont pull the troops out. He wants to by 2006 to help the GOP, but wont because that would backfire. It would be the single worst decision an American president has ever made, retreating from a war, knowing that will probably result in a civil and later regional war, with the likely emergence of a Nazi Germany type country, all to help your party in the next election. Everyone would think he is cutting and running (which would be true) and he would have his ass handed to him over it.

[AtLiberty]

4. We won in 2000, 2002 and 2004...

Why should 2006 be any different?

As long as they've got Diebold on their side, they can "win."

[Erika]

6. My sentiments exactly

but states are pushing for a paper trail.

[Nabia2004]

53. Yes, and I fear fix the will not be soon enough for 2006

[lonestarnot]

7. Yes and this the shits! We must fix it no doubt about it!

[kentuck]

8. And that is why the Repubs are immunizing themselves now....

with the "good news" about how great the economy is doing and how much the deficit has been cut, the house ownership up to historic heights, low unemployment, etc...

The Democrats should dispute every claim. The eocnomy is not doing great when we are shipping our jobs to Central America and China. Most of the jobs created are for less money than the workers were making in a previous job. That is nothing to brag about. The deficits are still at historic heights and they want to cut veterans programs to make it look like they are for "smaller government". As for "house ownership", we would hope that more people own houses now than last month or last year, because the working population is growing and some are buying homes. That is a natural trend, not something created by the magic of the trickle down of the Republicans.

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

17. the economy isn't bad anymore

But it isn't great, and after 5 years, the public's opinion of bush's handling of the economy, that he is doing poorly, is now locked. The dems in congress are doing an unbelievably good job. They have the ego of a majority, and a similar level of effectiveness.

[senseandsensibility]

30. I'm sorry

I love your optimism, and I agree with many of your posts, but I can't get around "The dems in congress are doing an unbelievably good job. They have the ego of a majority, and a similar level of effectiveness." The only response I can muster is: bancruptcy bill, CAFTA, ANWAR, and so many others I don't want to depress myself thinking about them.

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

35. congress

Yes the reps are getting bills through that don't do much extreme damage (except the tax cuts which are impossible to stop, as they are often attached to appropriations bills that cannot be filibustered and only require 50 votes). But because the dems are unified, the worst bill since the Alien and Sedition Act in the 18th century, Social Security reform, is not only DOA but is wildy unpopular among the public and will never pass. SS was suppose to have passed by now and they were suppose to be working on a highly damaging tax reform bill by now, and aren't, and even if and when they do, they probably wont get it through unless it is benign like the 1986 tax reform bill. Bolton was filibustered, and while Bush recess appointed him, he lost the battle. He couldn't get a simple ambassador through even with 55 senators. Remember when Bush made that whinny speech about how democrats are the party of no? In addition, it contributed to the errosion in his poll numbers. As it was a recess appointment, there is nothing anyone anywhere could stop it. There was also Schiavo which really backfired, the nuke option that failed, and the ethics committee retreat. The greatest victory is that it showed that democrats aren't a bunch of girly men, and contributed to Bush's current 42% approval rating and improving opinions of democrats and decreasing opinions of reps. Just ask yourself, compared to where we were in Dec 2004 politicaly, are you happy or not with how Bush's political standing has changed?

[napi21]

9. There's certainly reason to be optomistic, but too soon to say

landslide.

What's with the Chafee v Laffey, and Mark Warner V John Warner???

I realize they are real people, but dont ya think they's going to look really weird on a ballot??? Especially the two Warners! How many voters are going to get them confused???

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

19. chafee

Laffey is a conservative that some in the RI GOP are trying to get to challenge Chafee in the primaries. If he does, he could cripple Chafee at the least, or knock him off in the primaries at the most. If he knocks him off, the seat will be an easy dem pickup. Chafee just needs to switch parties. If he does, he will be be guarenteed his job for life. As for Warner and Warner, Mark Warner did challenge John Warner in 1996 and lost by about 6%. But I believe there is higher chance that 81 year old John Warner will retire in 2008, creating an open seat. Mark Warner already has 74% approval in VA, and beats Allen for his senate reelection and for president in VA. Although I think Mark Warner needs to run for president just because of this. He would be the strongest possible candidate.

[napi21]

20. I understand all that. I just think it's weird... the similarity in names

I'm inclined to agree with you on Mark running for Pres as well. I just hope some good Dem can knock off Allen. His fake grinning and BS talk dries me nuts!

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

21. allen loses to mark warner in every poll

The only presidential matchup (a Rasmussen poll) has Mark Warner beating Allen in the state of VA by 4%. The two recent senate matchups (one Rasmussen, one Survey USA) have Mark Warner beating Allen in Allen's senate reelection by 4% and again 5%. And Allen is the freepers darling. Mark Warner's approval is around 74% in VA. They love him. Of course Bush is probably doing his part to help Mark Warner too, with Iraq.

[Son of California]

10. MORE PROOF OF THE INEVITABLE BLUE REVOLUTION

have hope brothers and sisters.

Bush is eating shit in Ohio right now, and before long the rest of the Republican Party will be joining him.

[Craig3410]

11. Nice site, that SurveyUSA.

Fucking amazing. After the Iraq debacle, Republicans STILL support him by about 70+ percent.


Republicans: Why let facts get in the way of their mindless trance?

[Bill Bored]

12. But they can steal elections now.

By the time it rolls around, they will have something to divert us from all the negativism, or they will have martial law, or they will just rig the voting machines.

As in 2004, political scientists will scramble for alternate explanations, such as ballot referendums that get out the Repub. base, aggressive early voting campaigns by Democrats, reversed on Election Day of course, etc.

The hapless Dems will stick to the facts, take the high ground, not have ANY ballot referendums of their own to get out THEIR base, and they will go down without a fight as the machine tallies are the opposite of the exit polls.

That said, we should all get out and vote because it is harder to reverse a landslide without anyone knowing it. They could probably steal enough seats to keep control of either the Senate or the House though. Watch for that.

[niyad]

14. I just want to know what the people who approve of him are THINKING!! are

they actually allowed out in public without their keepers?

[ChairmanAgnostic]

18. A weird drive tonite. Two months ago, hundreds of tags on the same road

Yellow & red, white and blue. Even American flags on windows, radio antennas, etc.

Today, I saw only one magnetic sticker. A pink one, for breast cancer. Not one for anything else.

I also counted no less than 21 bumper stickers seeking impeachment, "Out Bush", or "Save our troops - leave Iraq".

I suspect that the growing distaste of all things Bush are ahead of the poll results. Of course, this is Chicago. That liberal ocean-front town.

[marions ghost]

52. that's encouraging...

it would seem that the tide may be turning for regular middle-class Americans.

As we all know, the Mercedes, BMW and Jaguar drivers don't DO stickers....the real profiteers in this war on America aren't changing their decals anytime soon.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

54. and again

2-nite
I drove to a couple of places for a wittle pahty I arranged - including for a good guy who is running 4 congress

I saw NOT ONE magnetic sticker, regardless from which country they came from.

[SammyWinstonJack]

22. Assuming they don't steal it like they did in 2000 and 2002 and

2004. :shrug: In a real world your assumptions would be correct. We threw reality out the door in 2000 however.

[The Traveler]

23. I think you may be right

But it matters not at all if we do not know how to pull the country out of the tailspin flyboy Bush has put us in. Global warming, Energy, trade policy, the fair and practical distribution of wealth, the megadeficit, the disaster of for profit medicine, the implosion of civil liberties, national security, a sane and practical foreign policy with something resembling a moral basis ... can't blame Bush for all of these but he has thrown gas on quite a few of these fires and has done a piss poor job containing others.

What concerns me is not that the Rethugs won't implode. They will. They are. But that just means we have a LOT of work in front of us. We have to clean up the fuckin' mess. And it seems to me that means we better come up with some new ideas, because quite frankly what I've been hearing is kinda oldy and moldy and might have been cutting edge 30 years ago.

What the fuck is our platform? How are we going to address these issues? How are we going to get the American people to sign up for the effort needed to pull this country out of the ditch?

We face big problems ... the entire world is facing many of these problems, too. That means there are big opportunities for America. Solving problems is definitely our forte'. Democrats need to show not only the urgency of these problems but how, in their solution, we can better the lives of common Americans and their children.

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

26. in 2004 people said that kerry would be better off if he lost

Because of what is happening to bush now, the first term record was so horrible that nobody can fix it and just has to sit there and take it from the public. If kerry were president, his approval would also be 42% That isn't what we need if we want to end the 1968 GOP majority once and for all. Losing in 2004 and winning a landslide in 2006 and 2008 IS what we need.

[The Traveler]

32. Yes

but that just gives us the ball. We still gotta ram it across the goal line or this country is fucked. We not only gotta kick these scumbags out of office but then we have to heal the damage done. And this is not going to be an easy task, friend.

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

36. the job of the democrats

the job of the democrats for the next 3 years, is to make sure that the GOP does not run this country off a cliff.

[O.M.B.inOhio]

39. Yes and Nah.

I'm torn. It's hard to agree with the notion that it's good that things got worse before we have a chance to make them better. If the election had not been shifted to Bush in the wee hours, perhaps there would have been an opportunity to make a plan to exit Iraq and a glimmer of credibility for the U.S. Fewer soldiers and fewer civilians dead and mutilated. Perhaps innocent human beings now in U.S. military captivity might be living in dignity and freedom, or at least with contact, legal representation, hope.

It's promising that public opinion is turning. But just as the puppet masters were able to conflate the (p)resident with the presidency and make people feel that the world would fall apart if there were a different commander-in-chief, so too can they detach office from the man. Wal-Mart shoppers don't know how their Senators voted and don't know how to find out. We won't be running against Bush in 2008, he can be saddled with all the responsibility, especially when there's a blanket defense for those who supported the war criminal: "The Democrats supported Bush, too." That and election fraud of 2006 and 2008 will not have the clumsy giveaways of Ohio 2004 (which, of course, never made the MSM). ANd the worst corporations and individuals have more of your money to use against us.

On the other hand, if the situation is bad enough for enough people, there's a possibility that Americans will accept radical progressive ideas. I recently finished making a video documentary on New Deal stuff, and my research gave me a sense of deja-vu. Maybe we're going to be ready for a new New Deal, once it's clear even to Fox viewers that we are in pain, we have been lied to, big ideas are needed, and we can use our collective power and goodwill (in the form of the government) to improve everyone's lives.
if we get there, it'll be by way of legless vets, crippled Iraqi children, orphaned American children, Iraqi mothers and newborns dying in absence of emergency medical care, young American women giving birth to children they are unable to care for, fueled anti-Americanism, unwitnessed flag-draped coffins, and untold poverty and misery.

[Bill Bored]

49. Platform

1. Renewable Energy (Apollo-style 10-year program). Lots of jobs, justice and peace!

2. National Security (Make the middle east strategically irrelevant and have a President who actually READS the Presidential Daily Briefs and acts on them).

3. Health Care (self-explanatory)

4. Deficit - tax the rich but in a way that will make them seem unpatriotic if they resist. This one will require a little creativity but there are Repubs like Pete Peterson who could help us get this message out. Just don't give them the keys to anything because they'll rob the rest of us blind!

5. What more do we need?

[deadparrot]

24. But how many Democratic senators/representatives

are vulnerable?

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

27. none like santorum

The only possible worries I see is: Conrad in ND if the governor challenges him (which he hasn't yet, and Condrad won in 2000 with 60% of the vote, and no polls have showed him losing to the gov); NE with Nelson, who only may have a problem because he is from NE, although he doesn't seem to have any viable possible challengers, as the one viable one isn't going to run and he is outraising everyone else; WA could have been a problem but wont be, as Rossi would have had a good chance at picking up the seat but will not run and the dem obliderates everyone else; WV with Byrd, which isn't really even anything, people thought he might have a problem when one poll by a dem group showed him ahead only about 4%, however poll before and one after (one by a rep group, another by an indy group) showed him beating his challengers by 10%; the vacant MN seat, although we don't know because a rep named Kennedy doesn't have any challengers yet (Bush has a 43% approval 54% disapproval in MN); and the FL seat, which isn't looking like a problem, because while one poll showed 2 reps beating Nelson, neither seem to be interested in running, and get crushed in every primary poll to Katriene Harris, who will run, but loses by a large margin to Nelson in every poll. Other than that, everyone is solid (and we have 3 more seats to defend next year than the reps)

[wli]

25. 1. dog-wagging 2. Diebold 3. martial law

Bushler's not going down via elections; he, Cheney, Rummy, et al know hey're headed for life sentences in prison (or execution for treason) if the GOP ever loses the majorities in Congress.

[stepnw1f]

28. Get Rid Of Electronic Voting

Demand Paper Ballot Hand Counting.

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. One word: Diebold

taht does not mean don't show to vote, please do, the more of us that show the harder it will be to steal, but, Diebold gets many votes

[shanti]

31. deja vu....

summer just isn't the same anymore :scared:

[fishnfla]

33. sing it

:dem: :kick: :kick:

[ClayZ]

34. LOUDER!

:dem:


:kick: :kick:

[redacted]

37. But who's vulnerable in the house? NT

[Skip Intro]

38. I really hate to say this, but I've heard, and said, as much before

bush was down before 9*11, down before 2002 elections ("official" analysis concluded his personal visits to certain states pushed the r's over the top ), down before 2004 election, and down just after - I believe that's where the nation is and has been, probably more anti-bush than that poll reflects, but I've read some bush is toast threads that had me convinced - it seemed obvious, and yet, there he is still.

Not trying to be a downer, but its true. Its thanks to lies and cheating, doesn't reflect the real mood of the people, but does reflect reality. He is still there, despite loosing three elections and a populace slowly realizing how bad he is. I've thought he had to be toast before, and I was wrong. I'm not sure what I think will happen at this point. I do think we'll triumph in the end, but I'm not sure what's bubbling now will be "the" thing.

Not to mention the justified lack of faith in election results.

But justice will be done - I believe.

[Douglas Carpenter]

40. I agree that this is well within the range of possibility

Democrats must unite on common issues; especially trade issues, rights for working people and opposition to the insane neocon foreign policy. Then people will have a reason to vote.

[Starfury]

41. Social Security "Reform"

Much as it pains me to say this, I think the public really only started turning on Bush when he pushed for SS Reform earlier this year. Then Iraq, etc. started taking on a greater significance to the public. So I think the next great downturn in his popularity numbers might only occur when Republicans resume SS Reform attempts this fall in conjunction with pension and savings "reforms."

From The Hill:

Deputy White House Chief of Staff Karl Rove told a group of college students and lobbyists yesterday that the House will move a Social Security reform bill before the Senate will.

Rove said the House would act in September and the Senate would follow soon thereafter.

He made his remarks during an afternoon rally of Students for Saving Social Security, according to a source in attendance. President Bush and Treasury Secretary John Snow also addressed the rally, which was held at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building.

(...)

Asked about his own timeline for Social Security reform, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas (R-Calif.) told a group of reporters at the National Press Club last week that his committee would introduce some form of retirement-security legislation “probably in early September.”

Since January, Thomas has maintained that Social Security reform is just one component of a three-part retirement-security overhaul — the other two being pension and savings reform. Thomas has not yet discussed the details of his potentially sweeping reforms, nor will leadership comment on its particulars.

[bejammin075]

44. Fuck DCCC poll. 230+ (R) Reps are vulnerable

They are ALL vulnerable. The DCCC is starting to look more like the DLC. They didn't help Hackett, and Hackett won by taking the training wheels of and going for Bush's throat.

If the DCCC is saying only 10 seats are vulnerable, they are setting the bar way way way way low. Fuck that. We are taking the country back, not slowly, now incrementally. We are taking the country back in 2006 and no later.

[Bill Bored]

50. Take off the traning wheels!

I like that! :)

[B Calm]

45. I have said for years the republican party is self destructing. What

goes up, must come down. Now if we can get rid of those damn democracy hating voting machines

[jmatthan]

46. Assuming that you are right about the tanking

of the Republicans, what will you do IF the Republicans win a majority os seats with the 51 - 49 margin?

Will you just accept the result?

Jacob Matthan
http://jmpolitics.blogspot.com
Oulu, Finland

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

51. I suspect we are headed toward amazingly close losses in 06 and 08.

Missed it by that much!

For the same reasons mentioned and implied by others on this thread.

[Carni]

55. I don't mean to be dour BUT

Bush has ONLY had a favorable rating right after 911
(and I personally think that was completely trumped up)

His ratings mean nothing if they are fixing elections.

I only wish his low ratings actually meant something, but I firmly believe that until the last two general elections are recognized as the coup that they were, that his ratings currently don't mean jack for 06 and 08.

[Poiuyt]

57. Not if we pull out of Iraq

If Bush pulls the troops out of Iraq next year, he will claim a great victory, and the press will be only to happy to echo that. After all, they are supporting the troops. I'm guessing he will time the troop withdrawal for maximum political effect.

[mitchtv]

58. We ain't gonna win shit

with a bunch of mealy mouthed spineless Dems, calling for contiuation of Bushes failed war. They still don't stand up and say "this war is wrong, and we must get out ASAP". "If I knew then, what I know now, I would still...."
Howard Dean is who we need, Senator Hackett sounds good too. But I have had it with the Clintons,Feinsteins,and Bidens