Iran: Revolution, Unrealistic

[moodforaday]

Newsweek, via RawStory:

Aug. 15, 2005 issue - A classified analysis by the U.S. intelligence community warned top Bush administration officials last spring that the theocratic reign of Iranian mullahs could be entrenched for years to come, NEWSWEEK has learned. This National Intelligence Estimate, issued by a unit of the new National Intelligence Director's office, reported that Iran is not in a prerevolutionary state and that near-term regime change appeared unlikely, say U.S. officials familiar with the report who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the material. (The National Intelligence Council, a committee of top analysts, produced the document at the same time that it sent out a second classified report about Iran's nuclear program.) The analysts also noted that Iran's new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was Tehran's mayor and a dark-horse presidential candidate at the time of the NIE's publication, might have a surprisingly strong following among poorer Iranians because of his reputation as an anticorruption campaigner. The office of intel czar John Negroponte had no comment on the top-secret document.
(snip)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8853001/site/newsweek/

Of course Michael Ledeen has been saying the reverse, and we know who Buhs listens to.

[Comrade Kangaroo]

1. I don't believe that for a second

A good friend of mine has family in Iran and was over there last summer. He says the country is ripe for change. The people are fed up with the Mullahs and they want western-style democracy. The government has had to make a lot of concessions in the past couple years, making reforms and liberalizing the government. I think it's only a matter of time. They've got all the enccessary ingredients: a disporportionate segment of the population under thirty, an outdated political system, educated Iranians who study in the US and return home with crazy ideas about democracy and freedom...anybody who doesn't see it is crazy or blind. The only thing that could stop it is if Dubya invades Iran. That will only breed resentment of the west and cause the people to identify with the Mullahs. The best thing we can do is leave that country alone for the time being and see how it works out.

[Lannes]

3. I agree

Most of them werent even alive during the revolution.Us going in there or bombing would have the reverse effect.As for a timetable for change I
have no idea.They just put a hardliner in charge so it could be a while.

[Frederik]

4. But the majority did vote for Ahmedinejad

who was billed as the "hardliner". Predominantly the poor and uneducated, I presume. The US-educated may want liberalization, but how big a percentage are they?

[Lannes]

6. Just like our elections

We dont know how fair their's were.I do believe the younger generation want change but I think we can both agree that US invading,or any kind of military action will strengthen the hardliners and give them a more important cause to fight for.

[Frederik]

9. We can certainly agree on that!

[newyawker99]

8. Hi Comrade Kangaroo!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Frederik]

2. Those damn reality-based CIA libruls

Don't they know that the Iranians are just dying to have the US come in and liberate them.

[tx_dem41]

5. We know that the Admin has a history of not listening to NIEs. n/t

[catmandu57]

7. So does this mean

that just like Iraq, if we invade to give them democracy they'll shower us with flowers, chocolate, and virgins? Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

[theboss]

10. Iran is tricky

I think the Iranians would take to democracy much more easily than any other country in the Middle East. It's richer, better educated, and has a culture that has long been intertwined with the West.

However, Iran has been under such a strict regime for so long, it's hard to figure out how to get that fire lit there. It obviously needs to come from the inside.

Frankly, it needs a type of "Gulag Archipalego" book.

If W thinks he can provide that spark himself, he's a bigger fool than I thought.