F$^%#&^$&$$$$&!!!!! Another Category 3 headed my way!! (Hurricane Katrina)

[Brotherjohn]

Hurricane Katrina hasn't weakened much at all b/c it slipped southwest and barely passed over any land in So. FL.

The latest projection has it hitting just a few miles east of me at 115mph.

Nothing against Destin or Panama City, but I hope THEY get clobbered this time. We're still picking up the pieces from Ivan and Dennis!

ON EDIT:
Link to track by Intellicast (this one incorporates the curve, showing predicted landfall around Destin; the NOAA chart just draws a straight line between points, but since this storm is turning sharply, that doesn't really show the center path)
?

[Roland99]

1. Ft. Walton Beach area looks to be the hot spot?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2%2Bshtml/145105.shtml?3day?large

[Junkdrawer]

2. Unfortunately, this looks like a more widespread event than Charlie...

:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(

[Brotherjohn]

6. Fortunately, (probably) not nearly as strong, though.

Charley made landfall at 140-145mph.

[HereSince1628]

3. Batten down the hatches, then make for higher ground.

Good Luck, BJ.

[jobycom]

4. God is punishing the red regions for voting for Bush.

Get thee to a liberal part of the world!

[Media_Lies_Daily]

15. Do you really believe that crap, or are you just trolling?

[smbolisnch]

22. Considering there are 4 dead people, I don't think that is appropriate.

Good luck to the OP - please stay safe.

[Beaverhausen]

25. I read there are 7 dead.

I agree- hope everyone in Katrina's path gets through this ok.

[smbolisnch]

27. Wow- that's terrible.

The 4 were heard of earlier today, so it is not surprising that the number has risen. :(

[pointblank]

5. Good luck to you. Be safe.

I had some wicked dreams last night.

I was on my way to Texas by car and once I got into Texas, tornados began popping up all over the place and I spent the rest of the time running from them....going into houses and businesses and hiding in the basements, leaving the building after the tornado had ripped the roof off and then running from another one... It seemed very real and I was very scared...I swear my adrenaline was kicking in my sleep.

It must be scary to be in FL right now.

[Brotherjohn]

7. F$#&^#&%^#&%#$!! Again.

Since I first posted, the 11AMEDT update has been updated, from 115mph shortly before landfall to 125mph.

The NOAA "Discussion" release for 11AMEDT said:
STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...A RECENT
DROPSONDE REPORT RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW UP TO 80 KT. SO...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST
INTENSITIES.

It looks like Intellicast has the updated info, because they've changed their graphic to reflect a predicetd windspeed of 115kt (125mph). It was 105kt (115mph) just a few minutes ago. (see Intellicast link in initial post)

The NOAA 11AMEDT graphic is now deceptive. It says the windspeed is 80mph, but their text info has just updated that to 100mph. Big change. They probably won't update the graphic until 5PMEDT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W5+gif/150802W_sm.gif

I like NOAA, and I think they do a great job at predicting these things, all things considered. they had Ivan and Dennis pegged 2-3 days out to within a few miles (although strength is always a wildcard).

But this one's dangerous, because it's unpredictable. With all the twists and turns it's making (and is projected to make) it could be anywhere from a Cat 2 200 miles away from me to a Cat 4 at my doorstep. KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS ONE IF YOU'RE ANYWHERE BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS AND CEDAR KEY!

Making the trip for supplies tonight, and making possible evacuation plans...


... again



....DAMN.

[Individualist]

8. Weather Underground reported winds of 100 mph

as of 11:30 am. www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512.html

Stay safe, Gulf coast residents!

[Brotherjohn]

9. Yeah, I've been editing to reflect latest info. NOAA now says 100mph.

It's buried in my post, and not up on NOAA's graphic yet (but it is in their updated 11:30 advisory).

I think I'm going to post this again, b/c it's strengthening so rapidly and the (strength) forceast has changed so much in the past hour.

[TWiley]

10. Pinch the ole buttcheeks together and ride it out.

Gritting the teeth helps a bit also. Butt, why am I telling you this? You have already lived through several of them recently.

[steve2470]

11. So sorry Brother John

I feel your pain. We got walloped last year. God be with you. :-)

[jpak]

12. The NHC model had it farther east than the other models

over the last day or two.

I don't trust this one at all.

That said, I will probably not leave town (like I did for Ivan). It cost me a bundle - and there are no FEMA reimbursements for voluntary evacuees.

But, if you have a million dollar home on Pensacola Beach, FEMA will throw bags of $100 dollar bills at you all day long.

Go figure...

[Junkdrawer]

13. The 5 PM advisory takes it up to Cat 4 in 72 hrs...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205I_sm2+gif/205300P_sm.gif

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE GULF LOOP CURRENT AFTER 36
HOURS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD
ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL
OCCURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH
BRING KATRINA UP TO 118 KT. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL IS MORE
ROBUST AND BRINGS KATRINA UP TO 129 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/262059.shtml

[Media_Lies_Daily]

17. At the rate Katrina has been intensifying, I bet it takes less than....

...36 hours to reach Cat 4. Keep an eye on the pressure drops.

[jpak]

26. Hopefully dry air entrainment will keep it at bay

But, I'm resigned to a major disaster in my neck of the woods.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

14. The Weather Channel just reported that the track is moving to the west....

...more toward New Orleans.

[MidnightWind]

16. A category 4 or 5 hitting The Big Easy

would be a catastrophe. And I've got a friend who lives in Miami who tells me this thing packed way more punch than your typical Category 1 when it hit them last night. It's a real mess down there.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

19. I've been looking at all of the video and that looked like a lot more....

...damage than a Cat 1. I bet it really ramped up when it crossed the Gulf Stream.

[Swamp Rat]

21. Do you mean The Crescent City?

Because we don't call it The Big Easy, especially since that extremely bad movie with Dennis Quaid. :)

[gulfcoastliberal]

18. Are you in the Pcola area?

Me too. I've had it with this shit. Agree, re: Destin/Panama City/Apalachicola.

[Blue_In_AK]

20. Brotherjohn, move to Alaska...

...where the livin' is easy. :) (I'm not kidding -- it's a piece of cake living up here, at least in Anchorage. Sure, it's cold and dark in the winter, and there's the occasional earthquake, but at least we don't get blown away every year.)

[Baclava]

23. Thanks a lot....

I'm in Destin...and I've got a reeeeelly bad feeling about this one...gas-lines are already 45 min long.

I rode out Erin, Opal, Ivan and Dennis without any damage, but...this one I don't like at all...

Screw it - I just ordered me a hotel in Jacksonville for the week...yes - I gots the heebie-jeebies...trust your instincts...

[Malikshah]

24. We feel your pain in South Florida

But, uh...

"Hurricane Katrina hasn't weakened much at all b/c it slipped southwest and barely passed over any land in So. FL."

Ask the folks in Broward and Miami-Dade...it hit land, sparky.

Hunker down and fight it out.

[HeeBGBz]

28. Looks to be heading towards me in Gulfport now

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=328x396

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