Strike probabilities estimate for Katrina - Apalachicola watch out !

[steve2470]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT2+shtml/261515.shtml


000
WTNT72 KNHC 261515
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 1130 AM EDT...1530Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

25.5N 84.3W 49 X X X 49 TAMPA FL 13 3 1 2 19
26.2N 85.2W 33 X 1 X 34 CEDAR KEY FL 4 7 4 3 18
27.1N 85.9W 14 8 2 1 25 ST MARKS FL X 6 6 5 17
MUHA 230N 824W 1 1 X X 2 APALACHICOLA FL 1 7 6 5 19
MARATHON FL 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X 5 7 6 18
MIAMI FL X X 1 2 3 PENSACOLA FL X X 6 10 16
W PALM BEACH FL X X 1 3 4 MOBILE AL X X 3 11 14
FT PIERCE FL X 1 1 4 6 GULFPORT MS X X 2 11 13
COCOA BEACH FL X 1 3 4 8 BURAS LA X X 3 10 13
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 2 3 6 11 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 1 10 11
JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 4 7 12 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 7 7
SAVANNAH GA X X 1 7 8 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 3 3
CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 GALVESTON TX X X X 2 2
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W 4 10 4 3 21
KEY WEST FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 29N 87W X 5 8 6 19
MARCO ISLAND FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 28N 89W X 1 7 7 15
FT MYERS FL 56 X X X 56 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 8 9
VENICE FL 35 X X X 35 GULF 28N 93W X X X 4 4

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[steve2470]

1. another graphic

[steve2470]

2. another graphic

[steve2470]

3. Katrina Public Advisory

Hurricane KATRINA Public Advisory
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Strike Probs Wind Probs Maps/Chrts Archive

Position Estimate US Watch/Warning


000
WTNT32 KNHC 261524
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1130 AM EDT...1530Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
NAPLES FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT NOW INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES. ANOTHER RECENT REPORT FROM A NOAA SHIP ANCHORED IN KEY
WEST HARBOR INDICATED WIND GUSTS TO 86 MPH WERE STILL OCCURRING IN
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA.
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 1130 AM EDT POSITION...25.1 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 971 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/261524.shtml

[steve2470]

4. Computer Models

[theHandpuppet]

5. Check out their projected wind speed forecasts

They can scrap that model -- latest sustained wind speeds are now clocked at 100 mph.