Computer Models for Katrina's path

[steve2470]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_model.html


For the serious weather buffs, here is a page about the models:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml

[steve2470]

1. Discussion from NHC

000
WTNT42 KNHC 261534
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY DISCUSSION IS ONLY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES. RECENT DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 83
KT IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971 MB ALSO
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 88 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...OR 100 MPH.

GIVEN THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND THE
SHARP PRESSURE DROP...RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THE
VERY WARM GULF WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR
FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1530Z 25.1N 82.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W 90 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W 95 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W 105 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W 110 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/261534.shtml

[steve2470]

2. latest Key West radar photo

[steve2470]

3. Gulf of Mexico infrared photo

[steve2470]

4. another infrared photo

[steve2470]

6. wind swath

[HereSince1628]

5. Is it a resolution problem or do the IR photos place the center south

of _all_ the model projections?

At any rate it looks like the panhandle of Florida gets whacked, the people in New Orleans are doing something right...is it Voodoo?

[steve2470]

7. I don't know the answer. Must be dat ol' voodoo magic ! nt

[steve2470]

8. educated long range guess

[steve2470]

9. Water temperatures

[HereSince1628]

10. Yeah, that picture isn't really comforting.

[Wilber_Stool]

11. It looks like

they're going to need more colors for that map.