Looking at the aviation WX, winds aloft etc. Katrina looks to miss N.O.

[karlrschneider]

by just a bit...that's my guess, I think it will be nudged a bit to the East over to ...Biloxi? Not that would be better or worse, it's just my estimate on my 45 years as a commercial pilot. We shall see.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Would that be far enough away

to stop major flooding and damage? I don't really know, having lived inland all my life.

[karlrschneider]

11. Hard to say...the CCW rotation could spill a lot of Pontchartrain over

the levees. But it would be far worse it the center passed just west of NO.

[0007]

2. Hope your right!

[AuntPatsy]

3. You said not that it would be better or worse? could you elaborate

does that mean the threat of the city being inundated with massive flooding could become non existant?

[karlrschneider]

7. No, I meant that I'm not "hoping" that N.O. is spared at the expense of

any other locale. I'm pretty sure there will be significant damage there but ISTM the most destruction will miss them just a bit. (I have a lot of friends there and I don't have any axe to grind here...just giving my hopefully informed opinion.) Thanks for the reply.

[AuntPatsy]

12. Considering some of the posts I have witnessed today and even

some of the reports that I have heard from the media, yours did have an air of credibility to it and caught my attention. As with all hurricane predictions, until it actually hits land, there is always a degree of uncertainity as to where it will actually strike..

I hope your guess is right, and that the worst possible scenerio will remain unrealized...

[benburch]

4. Steering winds seem to not be turning it, Karl.

It might be too powerful to be effected by them. There is a significant chance that it will strike WEST unless the expected right turn starts soon.

[RagAss]

5. Biloxi...that's my call

[karlrschneider]

9. Yep...not that I would take any pleasure from being 'accurate'.

There will be a lot of damage for a good ways either side of where the center actually comes ashore in any case.

[karlrschneider]

6. I'm trying to keep up with the exact track and see some easterly turn

there's a trough west of N.O. that should have -some- influence on it.
Yes, it's powerful but basically, it's like a tennis ball floating in a swimming pool and subject to fairly small external forces...it's own circulation strength doesn't have much to do with where it GOES...

[benburch]

10. I hope so...

But remember that it occupies the whole troposphere, top to bottom, over an area of around a thousand square miles. I'm not sure that normal rules apply to it.

[AuntPatsy]

13. It's interesting how you bring up the normal rules, it seems lately

such is not always applicable with the ever increasing never before recorded scenerios becoming more common place...

[karlrschneider]

14. Probably not much of it reaches the stratosphere but it really still is

basically a localized (largely localized, I admit) system that can be prodded by the prevailing advection. I'm pretty sure 'normal rules' do apply. :D

[geomon666]

8. I hope so n/t