leftyandproud
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Mon Oct-06-03 11:48 AM
Original message |
If McClintock doesn't drop out today, we win. THAT SIMPLE! |
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Edited on Mon Oct-06-03 11:51 AM by leftyandproud
I wish Moveon or some other group would make calls of support to McClintock in this late hour. He needs to be reassured that he has support out there and that it isn't a lost cause. If he stays in the race, he will end up with 15%+ of the vote, splitting the GOP voting block between hardcore conservatives and the more pragmatic types who are willing to accept a 'moderate' like Arnold. Arnold will get around 30-35% in the end, and Bustamante may pull out with just 40% of the vote, enough to get him elected. If Mcclintock stays, we win, guaranteed. If he leaves, we're screwed...Arnold gets a solid 45%-50%, and California falls to the GOP.
That's my take on it.
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karlschneider
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Mon Oct-06-03 11:52 AM
Response to Original message |
1. You could be right...I don't think he's going to drop out at this stage |
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the last day? Can't see him doing it. Hmmm.
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Cronus Protagonist
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Mon Oct-06-03 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
14. He's been running on his integrity. |
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If he drops out now, contrary to his claims, he'll lose his senate seat. He won't risk that so he's in for the long haul. I think he'll stay in for the court battle afterwards as well. Click Here To See Fair & Balanced Buttons, Stickers & Magnets!>
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GreenGreenLimaBean
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Mon Oct-06-03 11:52 AM
Response to Original message |
2. I sure hope that doesn't happen. |
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Edited on Mon Oct-06-03 11:53 AM by GreenGreenLimaBean
My first choice is Davis stays in (Recall Fails).
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jenk
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Mon Oct-06-03 11:54 AM
Response to Original message |
3. All the sex scandals surrounding Ahnuld will shift support to Mcclintock |
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an even better chance that the vote gets split, or that the NO votes win
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Tempest
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Mon Oct-06-03 11:55 AM
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4. Doesn't matter if he drops out |
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His name is on the ballot and people will still vote for him.
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Taxi Driver
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Mon Oct-06-03 11:55 AM
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5. I don't think he'll drop out. |
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But I don't think we're guaranteed victory either. There are, according to the polls, many "Democrats" who support Schwarzenegger. What's important is to get massive leftist turnout.
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newyawker99
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Mon Oct-06-03 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #5 |
hlthe2b
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Mon Oct-06-03 11:56 AM
Response to Original message |
6. I'd bet money McClintock will stay in... |
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especially this late in the game... The Pugs have tried all the arm twisting they could to get him out already. I have to give it to him, he has principles and sticks to them(even if they aren't mine).
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candy331
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Mon Oct-06-03 12:05 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
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wins I would think it would be a defeat for the Repug party so called high moral ground.. Here is a man with morals that don't even measure on the scale. I wonder how in the world would a Dem vote for him? Even if they loathe Gray Davis I would think they could find some candidate of the 135 to vote for even if they didn't like Bustamante or just vote NO and select no candidate. Surely these same Democrats will vote for Bush won't they?
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Frodo
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Mon Oct-06-03 11:59 AM
Response to Original message |
7. I disagree! We only "win" if the recall is defeated. |
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And I doubt there is a single McClintoch voter who is going to say "Well, if McClintoch isn't in the race, then I'm just going to vote against the recall.
Now, if Arnold were to drop out? There could be a substantial percentage of his "supporters" who would rather see Davis than McClintoch.
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charlie
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Mon Oct-06-03 12:00 PM
Response to Original message |
8. I'll consider it a win if Davis doesn't get recalled |
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If Bustamante wins, I'll feel like we've dodged a bullet. Nothing against Cruz, I'm just mortified and pissed off that most of the nation doesn't seem to regard this shit for what it is -- a Republican coup attempt.
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Kira
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Mon Oct-06-03 12:07 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
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need to vote no on the recall for Davis to stay in office? Anything over 50%?
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charlie
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Mon Oct-06-03 12:08 PM
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LionInWinter
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Mon Oct-06-03 12:07 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
11. The sheeple didn't seem to care too much about the first coup ... |
RichM
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Mon Oct-06-03 12:09 PM
Response to Original message |
13. You're probably wrong. It may well go just as the polls predict. |
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They show Arnold winning easily even if McClintock stays in. Sure, the polls are not infallible, or even reliable, but to be cocksure that they are COMPLETELY WRONG seems like an unjustified leap of faith.
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Frodo
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Mon Oct-06-03 12:29 PM
Response to Reply #13 |
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Something like 20% of the expected voting pool (roughly 2Million voters) had already voted before any of the recent articles broke. Not only would those interested in the recall be more likely to vote early (marginally), the "yes on recall" polling was close to (or over) 60% for the majority of that time.
So Davis needs something like 53% "no" tomorrow to stay in office. Cruz can't benefit enough by the scandals to win at this point (JMHO). We're just as likely to see McClintoch in that chair.
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Evanstondem
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Mon Oct-06-03 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #15 |
17. Why doesn't Bustamante have a better chance than Davis? |
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The last complete set of polling results I saw showed Bustamante within 7-8% of Schwarzenegger, with Davis 8-10% behind on retention. Plus, there were more undecideds in Part B than Part A. Plus, aren't Repugs more likely to switch from Schwarzenegger to McClintock than from Yes to No on Davis?
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kayleybeth
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Mon Oct-06-03 05:37 PM
Response to Original message |
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Good luck out there tomorrow California DUers. :)
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knight_of_the_star
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Mon Oct-06-03 05:56 PM
Response to Reply #18 |
19. Thanks, we will need it |
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We'll do what we can. Gods know as well as I do that Davis will need a miracle to stay in office. I know that I'm voting no on the recall.
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roguevalley
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Mon Oct-06-03 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #19 |
20. the absentee ballots all ready cast worry me |
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some voters wish they could take them back now
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Mon Apr 29th 2024, 02:00 PM
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