Lessons from the recall

[Redneck Socialist]

What follows are a few thought I have had about the recall and what it means to us as Democrats in terms of politics and elections. I make no claims regarding their orginality or profundity. Please feel free to disagree (I know y'all will anyway) and to add to the list.

1. The "He-Man" outsider archetype still resonates. Arnold was seen as an "agent of change." I think Clark has tapped into this same image and it should help him.

2. "All politics is local." Many of us on this board seemed to see the recall as part of the "vast right wing conspiracy." People (most people anyway) don't vote against vast conspiracies, they vote for and against individuals and Davis was hugely unpopular.

3. Aproval ratings in the twenties are bad. Not very profound I know but I think it needs to be pointed out again that Davis was very, very unpopular. Why? "It's the economy stupid." The California economy is not doing well and Davis was perceived at best as weak and ineffectual and at worst as having made the situation worse. The presidential election will hinge on two things: How well the economy is PERCEIVED as doing and how well the war in Iraq is PERCEIVED as going. At the moment this is good for us, but...

4. Scandal, hypocrisy and smarts don't count for much. Image and timing are everything. See point #1. A longer campaign would have hurt Arnold, but it would not have necessarily helped Davis. There is a long time to go until the general election and we can't count on the bush regime collapsing into scandal. We have to run a strong candidate who contrasts favorably against how bush is perceived.

5. Fact don't matter. In politics perception is everything. You can't change facts but you can spin them. The reason spin exists is to attempt to control peoples perception of the facts. This is a double edged sword for us because Republicans are very, very good at this game. However we have to continue to loudly point out bush's many failures because it is starting to pay off. (His favorability ratings continue to decline.)

OK that's it. please feel free to add to the list. I am interested in what other lessons we can draw from the recall and how we can use those lessons to our advantage in the Presidential election.

[roguevalley]

1. California is a great state and is progressive.

They won't give up their freedoms even if they
had a psycho moment. It only bred resentment.
That often is a catalyzing by product of injustice.

[Bake]

13. Yeah, they're so progressive they elected a Neanderthal.

And it pains me deeply to say it. Cali has long been on the cutting edge of progressive causes. Psycho moment? Maybe. Maybe not.

On the other hand, more people voted against the recall than voted **for** Arnold, or so I heard.

Bake
I'm Still Pissed

[childslibrarian]

2. Arrogance does not play well in the political arena

Davis would have done better to apologize also. He never made anyone sympathize with him.

[ComerPerro]

3. Arrogance plays very well if

you have "war" and nationalism to back it up.

[DEMActivist]

4. 4 star general = outsider archetype???????

You CANNOT be serious, can you?????

A Clinton appointee to NATO no less!!!!!!

Bwahahahahahahahahahahhahaha!!!!!!!!!!!

[Redneck Socialist]

6. Actually I am

It is all about how people see him. I would guess that at this point all most folks could tell you about clark is that he is a general. The vast majority of folks don't know much about him other that that. Thus he is seen as a non politician, outsider type.

[Nobody]

5. We need to combat the Inevitability Factor at the grassroots level

The media started right in on Governor Schwartzenegger months before the recall. Immediately after he decided to run. As if it was already decided and the election was over.

Repeat something often enough as if it's actual fact and people will start to believe it. Or ask themselves "Why bother?"

We need to combat this and we need to start now.

There are still people who look at Bush's numbers and still think he's a shoo-in. WRONG. He's ony a shoo-in if we let him be one. And we won't.

We need to get ourselves out there and start filling the public mindset with endless repetitions of "There ain't no way in hell Bush is ever gonna be re-elected."

Let's make the Inevitability Factor work for us for a change.

[linazelle]

7. The ONLY lesson from the recall and from all elections that is

apparent to me is that the media is the key to control of our governing bodies--especially talk radio. The turnout in the outer regions of CA shows that. Normally LA's turnout dominates election returns as do most metropolitan cities. Talk radio is getting out the rural vote...and then there's BBV.

[Retrograde]

8. 6. Democrats can not assume their base will follow

I was listening to callers on the radio this morning (San Francisco, where the right is slightly to the left of center) explaining why they voted for Arnold. Quite a few identified themselves as registered Democrats who thought that Davis and by extension Bustamente were too arrogant and just assumed that they would get their votes. Three women who identified themselves as Black professional registered Democrats said they were influenced by Jesse Jackson's campaigning - unfortunately they were influenced to vote Republican. Mostly well-articulated explanations: the other factor brought up was Davis' negative campaign (I was out of state so I have no comment there).

The message I hear is that the Democratic party leadership needs to realize that this is not the 1950s anymore, and that their rank and file will not blindly follow "celebrity" endorsements (and I do put Jackson and Clinton in this category), and that they are tired of the same old same old. I believe California is the vanguard again: yesterday's election was not so much a decision on any particular person as it was a referendum on the status quo.

Which could bode well for 2004. I hope.

linda

[Redneck Socialist]

9. good point

The "what have you done for me lately," factor is not in bush's favor.

[TankLV]

10. 7) Repukes will do ANYTHING to win - even overturning an election less

than 11 months old.

8) Lies, sex scandals, murder, missing persons, cheating, embezzling and all other criminal conduct will be tolerated as long as it's a repuke doing those things.

9) It's not about the lies, sex scandals, murder, missing persons, cheating, embezzling and all other criminal conduct - it's only whether there's a "D" or "r" associated with the name that counts. Arnie wouldn't have gone one inch as a dem.

10) Dems better start playing by the repuke rules if they want to win, including all 1-10 noted above and more.

IT'S ABOUT WINNING - AT ANY AND ALL COSTS! and dems/progressives better get it through to their grey matter really quick.

[DeaconBlues]

11. One lesson is that

a Republican can only win the governor's office in California if he or she is socially liberal (or pretends to be liberal),is world famous, and has gobs of money to burn. Things are not as bad in California as they seem. Bush will not win the state in 2004.

[Redneck Socialist]

12. add to that...

...and it is a special election with special rules and the Dems are fragmented.