Interesting strategy analysis of top candidates: Dean, Clark, Kerry...

[wyldwolf]

DEAN
He’s lost some “Mo” but not Mo-ney — or the troops on the ground. There is the world the rest of us inhabit and there is Dean World, which is still expanding even if Dean has leveled off, or even declined somewhat, in the polls. Inside Dean World — it’s blogs and Web pages, e-mails and Meetups — Dean is still The Man, and the attacks from the outside only make the folks inside the bubble more fervent, as far as I can tell. Campaign Manager Joe Trippi hopes to have 900,000 names on his e-mail list by the end of the year, with perhaps a third of those as contributors. That’s some organizational and financial clout. Dean is pursuing the classic route first blazed by Jimmy Carter: Rise in Iowa, win in New Hampshire, and the rest is history. ... more...


CLARK
Some have suggested to the general that he skip Iowa altogether, just as Sen. John McCain did against George W. Bush in 2000. It worked for McCain, because he could spend weeks on end in the Khyber Pass of politics, New Hampshire, and ambush Dubyah there. Clark is starting too late to camp out in New Hampshire, and no one is so overwhelmingly strong in Iowa that it’s worth skipping. I expect him to try to participate there, while tamping down expectations of any major showing.
New Hampshire is the Wild West of the East, and it loves its outsiders and shin-kickers of The System: McCarthy, McGovern, Hart, Buchanan, McCain... Howard Dean thought he was that man (and a local guy as well) but Clark has a chance to be the outsider darling... He doesn’t have to win the state, but if he can finish at or near the top, he’ll be set up to do well in some of the more conservative, and pro-military states who vote the following week. He’d probably want Dean to be the other main foe at the end. ...more

KERRY
On paper, it’s still all there, even more so: Kerry has the battlefield record of Clark, the liberal credentials of a Kennedy, the foreign policy experience of a Clinton. The senator just has to find a place to win, early. He needs to finish in the money in Iowa, and at the top in New Hampshire. I used to think that he had to win New Hampshire, but he’s benefited from a decline in expecations there. At this point, no one expects him to win, so that if he finished a very competitive second, he’d still be in the ballgame — unless Dean has won both Iowa and New Hampshire, at which point it seems unlikely that Kerry would be chosen the Un-Dean.... more

http://www.msnbc.com/news/980505.asp?cp1=1

[Hawkeye-X]

1. Dean still has not lost his momentum

in fact, it's increasing every day.

Clark should really drop out for the sake of his own embarrassing revelations esp. praising Bush and raising $ for the Repuke Party. He would be better served as a VP for a Dem president for the next 8 years to build his credibility.

Kerry should also drop out because his lack of credibility as a Senator proved that he can't govern and not listen to the people. His Iraq vote and PATRIOT Act vote proved it. Also, no Dem Senator since JFK has won a Presidency, and the latest version of JFK is not about to win one. He has a charisma of a toad, and a face to prove it.

A person, imho, who listens to the little guys get more credibility as they go along, and Dean really listen. He shoots from the hip because he speaks the truth and every day he's proven right, and there's no better candidate than Dean who can provide both sides of the aisle their needs.

Hawkeye-X

[DoveTurnedHawk]

3. Please Can Your Ridiculous Rhetoric, Hawk (eom)

DTH

[Julien Sorel]

4. Come on, that was hilarious.

Stuff like that only underscores the naive and hotheaded nature of the Dean camp. We are told that Dean's grassroots support is what makes him a strong candidate, and what would allow him to compete against Bush despite those crooked polls showing otherwise. I think it's important, then, that we get to see those grass roots supporters in all their glory. If the party would come to depend upon them in an election, the more we get to see of them now, the better.

[HFishbine]

2. Dean has reason enough

to think he still is the man in New Hampshire.

Dean: 28%
Kerry: 19%
All others: single digits

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A3806-2003Oct9.html

[dfong63]

5. that article is heavy on spin, light on facts

"momentum" apparently means whatever the writer wants it to mean. according to the most recent polls, it looks to me like Dean is regaining momentum. Dean took a hit when Clark first entered, but now that the hype has cooled down, people can see that Clark is not 9 feet tall, and Dean is regaining territory.