"Unwelcome Reading for the British and US Governments"

[kpete]

(Kpete: And I thought we were leaving???)

Iraq conflict still in early stages, report says
By Fiona Symon
Published: November 23 2005 10:50 | Last updated: November 23 2005 10:50

The war in Iraq is still in its early stages and US and British troops are likely to be bogged down in the conflict for decades, a report by the Oxford Research Group said on Wednesday.

The independent think tank’s report will make unwelcome reading for the British and US governments, both of which have indicated that they hope to begin reducing the number of troops in Iraq after the next Iraqi parliamentary elections in December.

If Iraq can no longer be controlled, and if Iran guards its independence, then the US risks finding its access to Gulf oil diminishing at precisely the same time as China seeks to make gains in the region.

Contrary to some claims, the insurgency is not diminishing and it is likely to prove very difficult to withdraw all the British troops from Iraq unless there is a major change of policy by the British government, risking a break with the United States, says the report.
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a33ef8ca-5c0e-11da-af92-0000779e2340.html

[jannyk]

1. Altogether now, one two, three...

"WE TOLD YOU SO!"

:sarcasm:

[leveymg]

2. This assumes that a central gov't is needed. A divided Iraq would

likely offer better returns for foreign oil operators.

Most of Iraq's oil is in the Kirkuk area in the Kurdish north and the rest in the Shi'ia dominated south. The thinking is that local ethnic warlords would offer a more attractive deal to the multinationals than would a central government that has to distribute revenues more or less evenly across the country.

There's no way in Hell that many US and UK troops are going to be in Iraq in two years, much less in ten or twenty. The oil production centers and pipelines will be guarded by militias and by foreign mercenaries, and this is the outcome as planned by Cheney and his pals.

The big losers, of course, will be the Sunnis -- who will likely face "ethnic cleansing" in the north and south, and will end up with little of value in the middle -- which is why they're fighting desperately to change this outcome.

You should read this article the CSM: http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0811/p09s02-coop.html