What is the real deal with the economy? Up or Down?

[wuushew]

WITH THE LATEST REVISION to the summer’s retail sales and trade figures, forecasters have been busy marking up their spreadsheets and now widely estimate the economy grew at a stunning rate of more than 6 percent in the third quarter, the fastest pace since late 1999. The expected result would vindicate economic bulls who said the unprecedented triple stimulus of tax cuts, low interest rates and a weakening dollar would combine to produce the strongest growth in years.


http://www.msnbc.com/news/981761.asp?0cv=CB10

[mhr]

1. No Growth Here

Unemployed now for 39 months.

Economy, What Economy?

[leftyandproud]

7. no offense..

but maybe you need to take a break from DU.

[Robin Hood]

2. The reason that you don't see the results from this fabulous economy,

Is that it's due to the government spending a shit load of bucks on the military. Everything is coming up roses if your a military contractor. What a bunch of welfare queens they are.

[furrylitldevil]

3. no growth here either

I've got a friend who's been unemployed over a year, the company I work for has had numerous employees either quit or get fired, and as far as real-estate goes, it's still a buyer's market. What good is a $300,000 home if no one wants to buy it?

[jafap]

4. playing with numbers

The bottom line, for me, and for the voters is not the growth of the GDP. It is the creation of jobs. So I did some checking at the BLS site. I came up with the following table:

B-3. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by major industry sector and selected industry detail, seasonally adjusted


edit: as usual, the table does not look right when posted, so I have added abbreviations for the months.


130,408NB 130,409DB 130,198JB
130,873F|p130,516M|p130,408A
130,289OB 130,670J|p130,855F|p130,547M Feb 2003
130,817D|p130,661J|p130,804F Jan 2003
130,898N|p130,810D|p130,709J Dec 2002
c130,829O|p130,915N|p130,870D Nov 2002


Table B-3 goes from Sept. 2002 until Sep 2003. From B-3 I have included the numbers 130,289; 130,408; 130,409; and 130,198. Table B-3 also includes the latest numbers which show an increase from 129,805 jobs to 129,862 - the current reported gain of 57,000 jobs. However, both 129,805 and 129,862 are provisional numbers. My table above, taken from BLS archived reports, shows what happens to provisional numbers. Thus the report for Nov. 2002 would show a loss of 45,000 jobs. The Dec. 2002 shows a loss of 88,000 jobs for the same month, and the Jan. 2003 shows a loss of 81,000 jobs. However, the report from Sep. 2003 shows a GAIN of 1,000 jobs for the month. The first report for Dec. 2002 showed a loss of 101,000 jobs which was changed to 156,000 for the next month, then to 147,000 and is later (finally?) measured as 211,000.

Anyway, Table B-3's summary for the last year is:
130,289 130,408 130,409 130,198 130,356 130,235 130,084 130,062 129,986 129,903 129,846 129,805 129,862

My point is that this is not the first time the economy has shown a one month gain. Every time it does Bush is quick to say "we have rounded the corner, my policies are working". Since I have complete confidence in the stupidity of his policies, my prediction is that this will once again be a mere one or two month bump and the economy will continue to stumble along instead of taking flight. We can see that his policies are working by the increases in poverty and income inequality. Funny how those stories do not get much airtime. Any candidates out there wanna pound at that in your speeches?

[BloodyWilliam]

5. Growth is crap

If jobs are being lost, of even if they just aren't being made.

And people still believe the bullshit that if you give more money to the assholes who hoard it all to themselves, rather than the poor saps who actually SPEND the money and create the demand, it'll make jobs.

[retread]

6. It's a certainty that in the coming year we will hear endless

stories about the great economy. It's the propaganda machine's job.