We vote, then we throw you out

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THE ROVING EYE
We vote, then we throw you out
By Pepe Escobar, Dec 15, 2005

{snip}

This country is no more
None of this points to national cohesion. "Iraq" as we know it - the unified, heavily centralized state with arbitrary borders drawn on a paper napkin by Britain after World War I - may be on its way to extinction after these elections.

Partition is de facto in the four provinces of Kurdistan - roughly between 15% and 20% of the total population, self-governed and with their own army and police. The billion-dollar question is how the SCIRI, Da'wa and the Sadrists will conform a Shi'iteistan composed of nine Shi'ite provinces out of Iraq's 18. This would be the logical outcome after the American-designed constitution approved in the October 15 referendum. The SCIRI's leader, Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, definitely wants a Shi'iteistan.

The US would be left with little more than the Green Zone - which is not exactly an oil lake - and a lot of empty desert. Essentially, Kurds and Shi'ites will be able to decide what to do with their oil revenues. The Kurds, for instance, have already signed a contract with a Norwegian oil company to drill for oil.

Election or no election, the ultimate blood-drenched quagmire will remain fully operational. Al-Qaeda will keep suicide bombing to death. Shi'ite death squads will keep executing Sunni Arabs. Shi'ite and Kurd politicians will keep squabbling - while Kurdistan and Shi'iteistan further ignore Baghdad. The Americans will keep controlling nothing - not even the road from the airport to the Green Zone. "Reconstruction" will remain non-existent - until the probably not-too-distant day when the Shi'ite signatories of the "pact of honor" - the probable election winners - will muster the will to tell the occupiers "you're out - and don't forget to pack your military bases as well".

full article: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GL15Ak03.html

I can't imagine Bush is prepared for this.

[enigma000]

1. and here you convinced me it was destined to be rigged

;)

I figure the results won't be in until mid-January. And by the time the horse-trading on the government positions is finished, they will be swearing in the government in, oh, April.

Then we see where it goes from there.

[bigtree]

2. You know, the bottom line

is the Iraqis are being told that this process leads to our exit. That is not what Bush says. Total victory over the 'terrorists' is his mantra today. Let's hope it's cover for a bug-out.

I personally think there are deeper interests that will threaten to keep Bush wed to an active offensive force, (smaller and more vulnerable) to continue his quest for oil, influence on Iraq's neighbors, whatever his ambition, or whatever the ambitions of the cronies who pull his strings.

If Bush goes with what is being advertised by his surrogates, partial drawdown, continuation of campaign against 'terrorists and insurgents' in concert with the Iraqis, then we will be drawn even further into the factional strife and the parties will continue to be divided. Right now, there is no indication from Bush that he intends to back off. I think he wants to manage the new authority with his heavy hand. The military is his lever as well as his sword.

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3. .

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4. election morning kick

[enigma000]

5. Any exit polls yet?

Of course, those can be.....unreliable.

[bigtree]

7. nah

good turnout reported though

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200512/s1532165.htm

[annabanana]

6. Yeah, that looks about right.

If the sky is up and the earth is down, that article pretty much sums up the most likely ultimate outcome of this massive BFEE screwup.