Sunnis are saying all hell will break lose, once the Iranians rule Iraq

[sabra]

I posted this in LBN, but isn't getting much traction:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2000321

This is scary stuff!!!

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/DPAS-6KAMFC?OpenDocument

Iraqi Sunni party says rebels intensify violence

AMMAN, Dec 21 (Reuters) - An Iraqi Sunni leader said on Wednesday insurgents would intensify attacks to drive out U.S. troops and violence would worsen if a Shi'ite-led government returned to power, as seems likely.

Sheikh Majeed al-Gaood, head of the "Wahaj al-Iraq" party with strong ties to both Islamist and secular nationalist insurgents, said a victory for ruling Shi'ite Islamists aligned to Iran in last week's parliamentary elections would bring bloodshed.

"The resistance will intensify and there will be a bloodbath and much blood will be spilt if Iran's agents gain power," said Gaood whose group has a strong following among ex-army officers, Saddam Hussein loyalists and Arab Sunnis waging the insurgency.

"Not a single honest Iraqi nationalist would accept the Iranians or their agents ruling the country."

[rucky]

1. They may be tough mo-fo's, but they are outnumbered.

immensely. What side are the US occupiers going to take? Sunni insurgents or Shiite dominionists? They'll probably fight 'em all.

Who'dve thunk that our invasion would ally Iran with most of Iraq?

[sabra]

2. In all cases the results will be ugly.

Another win for BushCo :sarcasm:

[CJCRANE]

4. ..and yet Sunnis are the majority in rest of Mid-East

so it's possible they'll get support from outside Iraq.

For the neo-christians it's probably a win-win situation - they get to see the two major factions of Islam fighting against each other (just imagine a Protestant/Catholic war going on in France for something of a similar scale).

[Lexingtonian]

8. U.S. neutrality is the only rational policy option

and means withdrawal from all the combat areas, letting the Shia and Sunnis duke it out among themselves. They're both being run by totalitarian or feudal interests for totalitarian and feudal interests, and only they can beat that out of each other.

Look for the Shia strongmen aka 'democratically elected constitutional government' to start disinviting the Bushies from Iraq as they get confident that their American-trained militias can beat/conquer the Sunnis. Hello, civil war.

Unfortunately, the best possible outcome for this civil war is that the Shia win, just barely and so utterly exhausted by it that they can't institute their totalitarian designs- indeed, hopefully all the totalitarians and sectarians and such on all sides are defeated comprehensively. Then the UN reoccupies the country and actual democracy and commitment to a constitution is possible.

This was all utterly foreseen by the fall of 2002. The history-ignorant ideologue morons in the White House and Pentagon decided they could ignore Iraqi political reality and simply impose a puppet government and all the totalitarianism/feudalism of Iraq could be swept under the rug. Like in Vietnam, the American takeover was of a country whose bitter feudal/colonial history is the essential political problem and required a civil war to settle, and the American involvement has simply delayed the outcome some years and grossly upped the number of people killed. The American 'neocon' theory of Iraq was a kind of cultural-historical form of Creationism (in which they themselves played God), really, but political Evolution and History and Iraqi demographics and social condition are the realities that have smashed it all to smithereens.

The great satire of American conservatism is that the self-proclaimed 'conservatives' always know everything about the Past, but never know anything about History. Which is why they repeat the Past so exactly. It's like that sardonic definition of expert- a guy who knows everything about nothing.

[Maraya1969]

3. The US should have staged a coup with the Saudis as they offered

What is happening in Iraq is heartbreaking.

[sabra]

5. but what about Halliburton? :-)

[Maraya1969]

6. I know. And more people should know that it was unnecessary to blow

up Iraq to get rid of Saddam. What excuse would they have for the war then? Oh, I forgot....the want the Iraqis to be a happy as the US when they get their own democracy.

[bigtree]

7. There is no way that ANY government there now can molify all the factions

The infrastructure is still broken, electricity, water, roads, gas prices jumping . . .

There is going to be a growing resentment of the central government, because, no matter who is seen as controlling it the U.S. will always be seen as the patron, especially as we continue to occupy and use our military to violently suppress the resistance. We can't maintain the false equilibrium that we created, starting with the provisional authority, to the junta that is now consolidating their propped up power through the 'elections', without the heavy hand of our military in place, and that can only keep the lid on the coming disquiet and unrest for so long.

One thing is certain, there will never be any balance or unity between the factions as long as we are seen supporting one segment or another.