Zogby Polls Are NOT Reliable

[KittyWampus]

I have NEVER commented on any polls before on DU because I do not put much stock in them.

However here is some information I came across this evening...

According to Zogby:

two thirds of Americans support the privatization of Social Security
two thirds of Americans supported the consideration of a SECOND impeachment of President Clinton

In September, Zogby did a poll in the South regarding Democratic Primary Candidates and began with a
question about gay marriage (clearly to influence opinons about Howard Dean).

In October, Zogby JUST did a poll in NH where he began with a question about whether "the Democratic party should nominate someone who is a lifelong Democrat, or would Democrats be wise to select someone who is a recent convert to their way of thinking? (clearly to influence opinions about Wesley Clark).

Perhaps Dean did have a giant surge in NH... but I am not taking Zogby or anyone elses polls numbers for a
fact.

It is a fact that Zogby DOES ask leading questions and also seems to work quite a bit with NewsMax.

[Rowdyboy]

1. My experience over the years has been the opposite of yours..

I've found Zogby to be excellent in national elections, less so in statewide. Overall, I trust Zogby over any other pollster. JMO.

[Clete]

2. So do two-thirds favor privitization of SS?

I hope not, unless the RW propaganda has seeped far and wide.

[KittyWampus]

Do You Think 2/3 Americans Wanted To Impeach Clinton A SECOND Time?

Or do you think he phrased the question to get the answer whoever commissioned the poll wanted?

Again, I personally don't pay much attention to polls.

[alexwcovington]

3. Flame WARNING!

The Flame-O-Meter has detected dangerous levels of combustibility in this thread, placing its author at risk of contracting DISSENTING VIEWS in large numbers. Either douse the thread with a concession or run around screaming, arms flailing about, until the opposition drops off.

[quinnox]

4. I don't put any credence into Zogby

His polls usually have a wide difference when compared to other polls, also I am very uncomfortable with statements he makes regarding his own polls. He comes to strange conclusions, and appears very biased.

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

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[Dagaz]

9. Exactly

The only poll to predict Gore...and he's been right in the past too.

I'm like everyone else that I like polls that play to my beliefs but what I ultimatly want is the truth. Bill Clinton has shown that responding to polls with action can work. Whether to sell out convictions (like welfare reform) to stay in office is a huge question but one has to get elected first.

Dean is a fine Democrat but do we want someone to get elected or one to fight a good PR fight? The facts are that Dean is associated with Gay marriage in a big way (and positive in my book) but once that is an issue in middle america and even in Eastern Catholic America Dean is toast.

This is shaping up as the Dean vs the anti-Dean but the DLC candidate is yet to be determined. It could very well be Gephardt

[KittyWampus]

6. John Zogby's Creative Polls

Here is the article in full with link:
http://www.prospect.org/print/V14/2/mooney-c.html

"Even if all of Zogby's techniques couldn't be taught in a university course, that
critique seemed irrelevant after he called the election correctly. By February 1998,
Zogby had been asked by Rush Limbaugh to do a poll on the Monica Lewinsky
scandal, one that, by emphasizing moral questions, would differ from surveys
showing widespread support for the president in the face of Kenneth Starr's
inquiries. Zogby obliged. The five-question poll opened with the following: "Suppose
you are ready to hire a candidate who is well-qualified for the job, but then you find
out that they like to have consensual sex with subordinates. Still hire them?"

Another question asked whether it was "immoral" for a U.S. president to have
"consensual sex with a 21-yr-old intern." Sure enough, two-thirds of respondents
did indeed consider it immoral. Of course, their only other option was that such
behavior was "acceptable," something even Clinton's defenders probably didn't
agree with."

[ScreamingMeemie]

7. Unless of course, one's candidate is in the lead in NH...

;)

[Eloriel]

10. Good point - wonder who commissioned the poll

But is that an appropriate response by a moderator?

Eloriel

[ScreamingMeemie]

11. It is a tongue in cheek response from a moderator, trying to keep

things light. ;)

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[blm]

27. At that point it didn't get much press, though, did it?

.

[KittyWampus]

8. Zogby-78% Agree Intelligent Design Should Be Taught In School

"Finally, consider an August 2001 Zogby poll for the conservative Seattle-based
Discovery Institute, which advances the theory of "Intelligent Design" (ID), a more
subtle successor to Biblical creationism, as a rival to evolution in high-school science
classes. The Zogby Poll asked:

Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or
strongly disagree with the following statement: 'When Darwin's theory
of evolution is taught in schools, students should also be able to learn
about scientific evidence that points to an intelligent design of life.'

An impressive 78 percent of respondents agreed with the statement; 53 percent of
them strongly agreed. At first glance this might seem innocuous enough -- who could
oppose the teaching of scientific evidence? But how many respondents grasped that
"intelligent design of life" is used as a synonym for divine creation? Also, as Eugenie
C. Scott of the National Center for Science Education points out, the premise that
scientific evidence supporting ID actually exists is a highly dubious one. The
American Association for the Advancement of Science has specifically stated that
ID is not science."

I personally make a distinctio between Intelligent Design that is used by Creationist to push their agenda and Intelligent Design that investigates the role of Consciousnes in Reality.

[bluestateguy]

13. HIs methodology can be screwy

And at times he can be way off, but his final polls in 1996 and 2000 were within the margin of error, nor did his tracking polls bounce around all over the place like Gallup's did in 2000.

[John_H]

14. he he he...nobody believes polls they don't like. That's why there's...

so many pollsters--you can always find one who'll let you have it your way. Bet if those Zogby numbers were reversed, you'd be quoting the shit out of them as if they were the gospel of St. Luke.

[KittyWampus]

22. My Original Post Is NOT SOUR GRAPES

I also mentioned about the poll in the South and if Zogby asks leading questions about Dean and Clark... he can also do so about Kerry or any other Democrat later on.

Read the whole article from the American Prospect, please... link in post above.

[meisje]

15. 99% of DU'ers agree with all polls against Bush, all others

must be fake!

[dsc]

16. You get to see every question he asks and judge for yourself

Yes Zogby is a Republican and does work for them. But, by and large, when he does honest polls he gets closer to the mark than most pollsters. He was the only pollster who predicted Gore's win in 2000 and also the only one to predict the Democrats doing well in 98. That said, he has also been wrong. I said on the P and C thread about his poll that I don't think it is accurate and I don't. Dean is all but certainly pretty far ahead but he isn't ahead 40 to 17.

[w4rma]

17. Zogby is one of the **most reliable** pollsters, IMHO.

It is my understanding that both of these questions were asked **AFTER** the questions about which candidate the person would support. It is my understanding that in the case of the NH poll, the question about "a lifelong Democrat" was the last and final question. Since they are aksed last they obviously don't affect the poll numbers of the previous questions (remember these polls are done by phone so folks can't read ahead).

In September, Zogby did a poll in the South regarding Democratic Primary Candidates and began with a
question about gay marriage (clearly to influence opinons about Howard Dean).

In October, Zogby JUST did a poll in NH where he began with a question about whether "the Democratic party should nominate someone who is a lifelong Democrat, or would Democrats be wise to select someone who is a recent convert to their way of thinking? (clearly to influence opinions about Wesley Clark).

[TruthIsAll]

18. Zogby IS reliable...

You just need to look at his track record...

To make a statement like you did, you had better check your facts.

Just because you disagree with his numbers, that is no reason to criticize his methodology.

[KittyWampus]

21. Again, Do You Think 2/3 Americans Support PRIVATIZINF SOCAL SECURITY

???

These are Zogby's numbers too.....

[dsc]

28. I wouldn't be surprised

if they had Bush's plan described to them and were, like many voters, ignorant of the facts. If you believe Bush's figures his plan sounds great just like all free lunches do. Also if the poll was from when the stock market was still doing well then the numbers over all for privatization were considerably higher.

[tlb]

19. DU seems to think NO polls are good. Until they show Bush falling.

Then they are gospel.

((( sigh )))

Man I'm tired of that game.

[Speed8098]

24. Please prove that theory with a link

You and another poster said the same thing so I challenge either one of you to provide a link to a thread or threads that prove your rhetoric.

From what I've seen, being here almost since inception, is that "most" people here at DU don't trust ANY polls. Regardless of what they say. But, hey, if you can prove me wrong, please do so.

[Padraig18]

26. I'm tired of it, too!

The whole 'we can't trust anything a poll says' meme is becoming extremely irritating, especially when some polls I *do* know to have been done by Democrats show essentially the same things... :eyes:

[Robin Hood]

20. Here is the proof in Zogby's bullshit polling.

"two thirds of Americans supported the consideration of a SECOND impeachment of President Clinton"

yet at the height of and even after the impeachment, all the way into the election. Clinton enjoyed a 67% approval rating. So how does 2/3rds fit into that equation?

Simple, it doesn't.

[quaker bill]

23. Zogby called Fla right in 2000

Every one else had GWB up by +/- 5 percent.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

25. I was being polled by Zogby for a while

and when I looked at the results, the number of respondents who self-identified as Republicans was invariably higher than the number who self-identified as Democrats or Independents. In other words, the percentage of Republican versus Democratic respondents did not reflect their percentage in the population.