Third Quarter 7.2% economic growth,

[Silverhair]

Here is the CNN link:
http://money.cnn.com/2003/10/30/news/economy/gdp/index.htm?cnn=yes

Unemployment still remains a problem, but unemployment is always a lagging economic indicator.

We need to shift tactics on the economy. If we keep berating Bush for a bad economy when the economy is going well, we will look silly. We need to talk about getting the benefits of the recovery to all citizens.

[Skittles]

1. A LAST GASP

now watch what happens

[ender]

12. inflation, here we come :-(

lock in rates now, and batton down the hatches...

now comes the shit storm.

[NoMoreRedInk]

14. Inflation can't occur until employment catches up w/ productivity gains***

nm

[ender]

16. then we are in a state of over-capacity.

which is worse than inflation :-(

(over-capacity == deflation - i'd rather inflation)

[Armstead]

2. Need to talk about the roots

>>>If we keep berating Bush for a bad economy when the economy is going well, we will look silly. We need to talk about getting the benefits of the recovery to all citizens.<<<

I agree with that. It's not only what the country needs -- it's also politically pragmatic.

The economy works in cycles. It's also very complicated. We're in the "recovery" part of thar cycle now. Those indicators will likely continue to look "optimistic" through the coming election cycle -- at least enough to benefit Bush with the help of the media spin machine.

If the Democrats continue on a simply "Bush bashing" course of saying "The economy stinks because the GOP is in power" they are going to lose.

However, Democrats can provide a strong challenge if our politicians start talking about the core economic problems like who benefits and loses in the economy, how the gap between rich and poor has been growing, how the middle class is shrinking -- AND how corporate policies and the Markets Over All philosophy have cause underlying problems.

[Teaser]

4. I'm sorry, but Americans won't care about this much.

I have seen no evidence, sadly, that Americans care to any great extent about the gap between the rich and poor. We, as a nation, seem more concerned about being on the right side (pun intended) of that gap.

We are not, as a nation, structural thinkers. I don't know what can change that.

[Armstead]

6. I disagree that it doesn;t matter

First, people are too diverse to generalize. I believe many people can make those connections, but there is no support system for that in politics at the moment. However, the same energy that led to the progressive, populist and liberal movements of the past is still out there. It just needs to be harnessed.

Many people do realize that things are wrong, but they see no solutions being offered. I know a number of people who bitch about the same things we do on DU, but then conclude with "But it doesn't matter. There's nobody doing anything about it."

[Flying_Pig]

5. We can also count on the elite to do everything they can to pump

up the economy in time for the election. They will dump billions into the market, and some, may go on hiring sprees, all in an effort to give Bush bragging rights.

There are a number of other areas where Bush is vulnerable, and will remain so, so that's where we should focus.

[librechik]

19. The "correct" tack is too nuanced--Hit him with the constant lies

Simple and right out in the open. NOW!!!

[Teaser]

3. Employment is not *always* a lagging indicator.

Think about what's happening here: There is economic growth, but this growth has happened because of incredible productivity. So fewer people are needed to do more. This has caused the increase in unemployment.

Additionally, increased consumer spending was the natural consequence of a package of tax cuts last year. Of course that pumps up growth. But it has not pumped up hiring, and there is a good chance it won't pump up hiring, because of the aforementioned reason, and because the tax cut was a one-shot cash dump. Odds are good GDP growth will fall significantly next quarter, because we have new pressures now.

Households are outspending themselves. Unless this new growth causes growth in jobs, which is not a certainty for the reasons stated, they will be unable to maintain spending levels like this. In which case growth will dramatically slow.

The other option is that consumers will manage to spend just long enough to force growth to a high enough rate where production can only increase through increased hiring. Which will happen if we see productivity gains stagnate or fall.

No middle scenario is possible. It's one or the other, and my money is on the first one.

[HFishbine]

7. Inflation

By this time next year, the bugaboo up Bush's butt will be inflation and that will be a big consumer issue.

[LoneStarLiberal]

8. Here Is Where The Rubber Meets The Road

There will no doubt be endless debates about what 7.2% growth means, what is driving it, how sustainable it is, what might end it, if it signals a spike followed by an more conservative trend up, etc., etc.

The problem here, as in most political issues of the day, is public relations. The P.R. dimension of this problem is going to be compounded by the fact that most people are fairly ignorant of the economy as a functioning entity beyond their jobs and their taxes.

Any little sign of good news is going to be ridden hard and put away wet by the administration. I would not be surprised to see them dump all their other news memes and just beat the ever-living hell out of this one.

After all, it's the economy, stupid!

[LuCifer]

9. two words

DEFENSE STOCKS

[TAH6988]

11. Actually defense spending

stayed flat...

[AWD]

10. When you're down so far......

....there's only one way TO go. Up.

It would have been impossible for a Clinton economy to grow atthis rate...because it was already doing great.

If a baseball team averages 3 runs per game one season and 5 runs per game the next season, it's a growth rate of 66.7%. If another team averages 6 runs per game one season and stays steady at 6 runs per game the next year, it's a 0 percent growth rate.

But guess which team is still better????

[On the Road]

13. This is Huge

and it explains the stock market's unusual rally in October. Consumer spending is one thing, but business investment has picked up, too. That generally means the recovery is here.

[piece sine]

15. Every single Democrat wants an economic recovery

because we care about people and people need prosperity and jobs. There is so much to bash Bush with, don't fall into a trap of knocking good news for average Americans. We'll come-off as out-of-touch and uncaring.

[Silverhair]

20. Yes.

[shrike]

22. This number makes no sense to me

Sorry, but something smells here.

[CWebster]

23. My sense as well

Further explanation needed.

[cosmicdot]

25. as an American, I am a consumer by birth ... but, there was no

... spending "with abandon" here ...

will other Americans be scratching their heads, too?

always on the missed boat,
I don't get it either

Rove's hoping to get enough voters above a certain economic median or mode, and using cultural war issues to carry the day (to make up the difference)

Poppy's advice: get your war on early, son ... I made the mistake of poor timing ... Gulf War I had an effect ... but, it was little too late ... make it big and let my boys take care of the rest ...
~~~~~~~~~~~~

OK, I did buy some Halloween candy ... but, that shouldn't show up yet ...

[HFishbine]

17. The Market

is less than impressed.

http://chart.etrade.com/cgi-bin/rgraph?Symbol=_COMPX&gr=1&tic=1-day

If the market closes up, it will be chalked up to "Good Economic News." If they close down, there will be a more thorough examination of what's behind the numbers.

[javadu]

18. Not to Push the Metaphors Too Far, But . . .

we need a diversified strategy for beating Bush. As an amateur investor who has been burned by attempts to "time" the market, I have always thought that pinning our hopes on reelection to a poor economy was a bad idea. Moreover, an improved economy will help many of my friends and members of my family. I earnestly hope that it improves very soon. I continue to believe the democrats are better for the economy than repubs, but there are also lots of other reasons for electing democrats that we should be talking about also.

[liberalmuse]

21. I'm waiting to see...

what the economy does next quarter...and the quarter after that. I truly hope that we are in recovery, but it's really hard for me to believe right now, given the HUGE deficit and spending combined with very slow job recovery. I don't know much about economics, but common sense tells me that we aren't quite there when it comes to economic recovery. It just doesn't add up, but as I said, I'm relatively ignorant about all the ways in which our economy works.

[Oilwellian]

24. Ron Paul gave an interesting speech

about the economy just last month. You may find it very interesting.

http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2003/cr090503.htm

[eleny]

26. Could some of this be related to the refinacing of mortgages?

I know nothing about economics except our own family budget. We paid off our house 4 years ago. But when the mortgage rates recently went down to 4.5% my husband and I talked about doing the things we've wanted and needed to do in our home. So, we called our contractor, got the low rate mortgage for 10 years and are now spending the money.

With so many people refinancing, wouldn't that be at least temporarily pumping money into the economy, too? Paying down family debts, planning for Christmas, paying for education and health care or remodeling like us could all be adding to these numbers.

Last night, I heard a discussion on the radio about how today's numbers were greatly affected by the military spending and Halliburton. No wonder the admin doesn't want any funding to be loans.

My 2¢.