GDP up 7.2%, we are toast

[WhosNext]

The economy has grown more in the 3rd quarter than in 20 years. Bush will attribute it to his tax cuts. This is a huge blow to us IMO. Before, Bush had no leg to stand on re: the economy. Now he has this. I can see an easy 2004 win for Bush if this keeps up. We don't have a Clinton-type of charismatic candidate to put out there.

[liberalcapitalist]

1. i'm sure all of the unemployed people will be reassured

no they won't

[EdGy]

80. plus the numbers are BS anyway.

Bush is a liar

He and his regime have shown they are willing to lie about anything and everything if it helps them.

They lied about the 2000 election

They lied about the WMD imminent threat in Iraq

Compared to those things, lieing about GDP is nothing.

These are "official" statistics, put out by the Bush regime itself.

I will not believe them unless they are verified independently.

The Repugs are desperate, and when they get desperate they will resort to anything to keep their grip on power. Just like right-wing extremists the world over.

[Wednesdays]

85. No, no, he's right...we're doomed

Doomed...doomed, I tell ya!

We're finished! I...just...can't...go...on...

Oh, the humanity...the humanity...

[John_Shadows_1]

2. It won't last...

.... it's just one quarter, and none of the experts are expecting this to go on more than a couple of quarters

[penny foolish]

4. A couple Quarters of this is too much

[trotsky]

3. Key words: "If this keeps up."

A whole lot of spending was triggered by people who refinanced - that's a strictly one-time deal. Plus the jobs still aren't there. People can read about the economy roaring while they're in the unemployment line, that doesn't mean they're convinced things are better.

[loudnclear]

17. Spending really triggered by increased debt!

This is the "rest of the story."

[J B]

5. If your hopes depend on a bad economy,

you were ALWAYS toast.

[Catherine Vincent]

6. Well here's hoping the voters will see the truth about monkey boy.

And vote his sorry ass out regardless.

[number six]

7. Bubble.

It's too high to be sustainable.

[papau]

34. In Clinton's world Greenspan would inisist on emergency Fed Fds increase

Our 1% rate - with a Dem in the WH and a 7.2% growth rate - would not last as Greenspan would have a "special meeting" that raised the Fed rate to 5%.

[SahaleArm]

35. Ding, Ding, Ding...

We have a winner. Has anybody looked at the forward P/E of the tech stock universe, completely unsustainable. In the corporate world, who's buying and for how much longer? I'm not sure how the commerce department is measuring this stuff, but I've noticed relatively flat top-line growth and increased profit, why? Three things, improved efficiency from workers, automation, and outsourcing (India/China). This really is a short-term blip that will last through early '04 before the wheels fall off. Then it's time to dump:).

[number six]

37. If they're manipulating the economy for short term gain

that's spectacularly dumb. Boom and Bust is not a road to go down.

[SahaleArm]

48. Cheap money is a recipe for disaster.

Where's this huge growth coming from?

We've now cleared some oversupply that's been hanging around for a couple years. We're using cheap money from loans and mortgage refinancing to drive this economy, what happens when that runs out? There's no sustainability.

---

"That 15.4 percent rise is not being reflected in IT budgets and the revenues of IT companies," said Peter Kastner, an analyst at Aberdeen Research. "A 15 percent growth rate is just not sustainable."

He expects technology spending in 2004 to rise by 4.8 percent to 5.2 percent.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Feed=RTR&Date=20031030&ID=3018509&Symbol=US:MSFT

---

cheap money + short-term growth bubble = bankruptcy.

[penny foolish]

8. Howard Dean has as much personality or even more

than Clinton.

[WhosNext]

10. I disagree

Dean cannot connect with people the way Clinton could.

[Township75]

27. I disagree

I know Freepers that like Dean

[xJlM]

75. A freeper endorsement?

So what's that worth around here, anyway? Thanks for the good laugh...:)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. Without Denigrading Dean

Clinton was one of the best "natural politicians" of the modern era.... Even his enemies will give him props for that....

[terrya]

9. I thought I read in that report

That the level of employment dropped by 135,000 in the same quarter. Less workers doing more work.

Plus, we're racking up half a trillion dollar deficits. Where, exactly, is the silver lining here?

[WhosNext]

11. It doesn't matter, Bush will play it to his advantage.

[NicoleM]

25. Of course he will.

It's called politics. Everybody tries to put the best spin on what they've done. It's up to the Dem nominee to spin it our way. Whoever does that best, wins.

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[WhosNext]

15. Excuse me?

Since when are opinions a bannable offense?

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

26. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

31. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[catzies]

13. I don't know about everybody else but I don't trust that number

It will be quietly revised in a week or so.

[Boom_cha]

14. No

a spike in GDP growth to 7.2% is not a sign of a balanced, healthy economy. It was accomplished by borrowing demand from the future. There will be an inevitable "payback" in coming quarters. Bush shot his wad too early with his tax cuts. He's toast in '04.

[Snellius]

16. Nice try.

.

[sandnsea]

19. Democratic child tax rebates

It's already been attributed to that in the report. We really ought to be grabbing this one for our own!

[Woodstock]

55. good point - the Republicans left it out, Dems fought for it

will shrinking violet Daschle say anything about this?

[denverbill]

20. The economy grew 5% in the 3rd quarter last year. So what?

Is the stock market higher than last year? No. Is employment up? No.

People don't give a shit about statistics. They give a shit about jobs and 401K's, all of which remain in the shitter.

If the economic news today was so wonderful, why is the Dow barely moving?

[tritsofme]

30. The markets adjusted for this weeks ago.

Stock market does not equal economy.

[denverbill]

58. Obviously. And the market is still lower than last year.

I wonder why? Could it be because the economy is still in the shitter?

[HFishbine]

67. "Is the stock market higher than last year?"

Actually, yes:

[Name removed]

21. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

22. GDP could beup 50% on paper, if it doesn't translate to JOBS it won't make

a difference. So far it hasn't.

[Military Brat]

23. Glitch

Even the former chairman of Honeywell doesn't trust the number. And the stock market is responding with a great big yawn.

[Demobrat]

24. The Bush Administration says the economy is improving?

And we're supposed to believe it? Because they say so? I'll believe it when I see the first help wanted sign. 'Till then, I believe it like I believe Bush when he says that the increased attacks in Iraq mean we're winning.

[Old and In the Way]

28. Sure, I believe these numbers.

Just like I believed that Iraq had WMD. Just like I believed that the 2 taxcuts would create jobs. Just like I believe he won the 2000 election.

Sorry, but if this were truely the case, I think it's solely in the province of the 1% who had $5TT delivered back to them by Dimson. He distorts or kills all data coming from every Department in the federal government, so why would I believe this? A real 7.2% bounce would have this economy raging...that ain't happening.

[jiacinto]

29. Wait until the next quarter

See if it gets revised up or down first. That usaully happens.

[OneTwentyoNine]

32. So why aren't people being called back to work in HUGE numbers?

Because this a BS bubble. Hell,the money the Pentagon spent on 4X8 sheets of OSB bound for Iraq could probably raise some numbers on its own. Meanwhile us Murikans get screwed to the tune of about $15.00 per sheet for OSB. Last year at this time it was about $5.50.

Boeing laid off another 75 here in Wichita,350 jobs at Bombardier are gone as of Jan 1 when they move production of the Challenger Jet back to Canada. Those 425 jobs probably paid about $12-20 per hour,but hey WalMart for $5.50??


David

[girl gone mad]

33. Bad news as well

"In separate reports, the Labor Department said employment costs rose 1 percent in the third quarter, including a 1.5 percent increase in benefit costs. Higher health care costs are drag on job creation."

As long as there is no job creation and middle class salaries stagnate, it's just a case of the rich getting richer.

[tom_paine]

36. Soviet-style Lies by the Busheviks

They ARE getting desperate, but that is only pushing them more swiftly to Totalitarian Heights that were coming anyway.

Yes, comrade, and Toilet Paper Production went up 600% last year.

Even if this number is remotely true and not to be "corrected downward" in a month with no publicity thus remaing in the Public Mind, then it is based on stolen loot from Iraq, stolen loot from the Amerikan Imperial Taxpayer, and the fact that the Busheviks have been increasingly ratcheting up their use of governmental agencies as political platforms.

Just like the Old Soviet Union.

With each year that passes, the Busheviks get closer to that Perfect Soviet 100% lie.

To me, this Soviet-style number indicates that, due to increased desperation and the fact that people are seeing through their old lies, the Busheviks are taking the lies to another level.

I warn you, they are not done ratcheting up and, should the Imperial Family remain in power for decades, we WILL reach that perfect Soviet media atmosphere the Busheviks so admire and desire.

No filters then, just Comrade Bushevik's Unadulterated Truths.

[KFC]

56. "Soviet-style Lies" ? LOL

I think they are more like Beverly Hillbillies-style lies. Mr Hathaway and all.

The horra!

[hatrack]

38. Numbers look good now - but structural problems aren't going away

1. Health insurance, health care and prescription drug costs - does anyone think they're going to be dropping between now and November 2004? I sure don't.

2. The federal deficit isn't going anywhere, and with a new proposal passing the House to cut corporate taxes by ANOTHER $120 billion, to say nothing of the costs of the war(s), it's likely to be even more appalling than now by this time next year.

3. Foreign investment continues to suck compared with the 1990s - I can't remember the exact figures, but it's something like (approx.) $40 billion so far this year vs. (approx.) $250 billion in 2000.

4. Between people like Orrin Hatch (R - Puckered Sphincter) pressing for even bigger HB-1 visa caps, and the long-term offshoring-induced evaporation of high-tech and IT jobs (estimated at 500K by the end of 2004, something like 3 million by 2008), structural high-salary employment weakness is not going away either. And for everyone else, Wal-Mart and Merry Maids eagerly await new applicants.

5. Staggering levels of personal indebtedness. This applies not only to people with huge credit card balances, mortgages, car payments, etc., but also to hundreds of thousands of students staggering out of college into the scorched earth of the current job market. In one hand, they clutch a sheepskin and in the other, a student loan payment coupon book suitable for the choking of hippopotami.

6. Brewing scandals in the mutual fund industry could develop into something substantial, though I'm not sure that another Enron-style debacle is inevitable. It's always possible, though.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. The Thing About Structural Problems Is They Take A Long Time To

Materialize....

To quoute Herb Stein "If something can't go on forever it will eventually stop"


and

to quote John Maynard Keynes "In the long run we will all be dead."

[59millionmorons]

40. Too bad

It will all be drowned out by the California fires, Iraqi suicide bombers, Kobe, Laci.

[paulk]

42. I don't think it's a good thing

for the democratic party to put itself in the position of hoping that the economy sucks in order to win an election. I hope the economy gets better and we can find other issues to defeat Bush with.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. If * Can Point To An Immproving Economy

it will be hard to defeat him...

[paulk]

70. I'm hoping that his foreign policy debacles

will do him in.

We can't, and shouldn't, hope the economy is what brings him down.

I think Bush's handling of the economy is flawed at a fundemental level, but normal business cycles could prop him up through the next election.

[Woodstock]

61. but the fact is, * has done a lousy job with the economy

just off the top of my head (I'm not a $ person, so feel free to jump in), even if the economy numbers are up temporarily, * has still screwed the average voter

the dividend tax cut reaped billions for corporations but they laid off workers/sent jobs offshore anyway

the middle class tax cuts (avg. $100) will be sunsetted out after 2004, but and the wealthy cuts will increase

increases in property and sales taxes will offset any gain - it was just shifting the burden

the humongous deficit + increasing Iraq costs will take their toll (I read somewhere the American has paid $300 for Iraq)

payroll taxes to pay for increased cost associated with privatizing medicare (if it passes)?

[paulk]

82. I agree, Bush has done a lousy job with the economy

and a lot of the damage won't show up until after 2005, unless the tax cuts are rescinded. Bush's longterm goals seem to be Grover Norquist's, ie;
make the gov't weak enough to drown it in the bathtub. No money for social programs, social security, medicare, medicaid, etc.

What I'm trying to say is that cheerleading a lousy economy is not a good way to go about campaigning. It makes Democrats look bad. If things get worse, they get worse - hoping they get worse is self - defeating. And not too bright.

[piece sine]

74. careful...

when I dared to state the exact same sentiment in another thread on this very topic, I got flame-broiled like a Burger King whopper. Democrats cheering for continuation of this horrible economy will not fare well as a populist-based political entity. Can't we just fry Bushco on corruption/war/ethics and when it comes to the economy, simply assert; YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHING YET!

[Cocoa]

44. because Democrats hope for a bad economy, right?

Just like we hope a lot of people get killed in Iraq, right?

:eyes:

[knight_of_the_star]

45. Too late for him

With everything else going to shit and the WAY that the GDP is going up we can have 200% GDP growth and Bush could STILL be beaten.

[Dr Fate]

46. Where is MY raise or tax cut???

I'm sure I will not be the only one asking this question, despite what Bush/media tells me...

The amount of $$$ in my wallet is the ONE AND ONLY thing that Bush/media can NEVER spin away....

[Kamika]

47. Whats it called when economy grows but unemployment stays the same?

I know its a known phenomenon.. wont we get that now?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. A Jobless Recovery

NT

[Kamika]

50. no dammit its a known term

Some economy wizard help me out

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. There Are Only So Many Terms...

Recovery...

Recession....

Depression...

[Kamika]

69. found it

ok wasnt a term per say..

sorry


the sentence was like this


"If the goverment doesnt take action when the unemployment is high there is a risk that the economy will regain equilibrium without any fall in unemployment"

equilibrium threw me off

[InkAddict]

78. Might you mean

contraction and consolidation - like musical chairs where some are eliminated from the economic game as the # of chairs is too few - next round, remove another chair and everybody marches a bit more nervously to the music -

solution: nab the person spinning the discs and put all the chairs back in the game and invite those booted to play again, in fact, the more, the merrier, so even invite those that hobble a bit and everybody move a bit slower since the chairs aren't going anywhere until the music stops. In fact, for more fun, add more chairs each time and bring everyone up to speed.

When enough chairs are in the game and enough have been removed, if one adds another spinner, both groups can play, take turns so they can hear their own music, one play base, one play treble and get a competent mixer - PARTY!

[SahaleArm]

53. More like a jobloss recovery.

*NM*

[leetrisck]

51. Maybe Clinton's economy is kicking

in. Heaven knows it was so awful for 8 years.

[phillybri]

52. Wrong....

GDP doesn't equal jobs created....

Spare the "Sky is Falling" bit...We're finally getting past that...

[Yavin4]

57. If This Growth Number Is Real, Where Are The tax Receipts?

Why are tax revenues declining on the federal, state, and local level?

[SahaleArm]

59. They're all in Bermuda.

Thank's to BushCo only 2% of America will enjoy this 'recovery'.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

65. Because Bush repealed Clinton's executive order forbidding federal

contracts to companies that set up off shore shells to avoid taxes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

66. Cuz It's One Quarter Of Growth....

One quarter of growth is not a trend....


If the economy starts growing >4% on an annual basis I'll be impressed....

[grasswire]

60. probably manipulated....

....to give Christmas shoppers the impression that things are getting better so they'll spend.

[Fescue4u]

62. Its all made up

Bush just fired up his printing press.

What you would like for the rise to be next quarter?

Make up a number, email to Bush and he'll see what he can do.

[KansDem]

63. I'm no economist, but...

Just how much of this 7.2% growth is attributed to government spending? It seems to me that with the US Government throwing billions of dollars into the economy as a result of Bush’s oil war in Iraq, that we would see some kind of growth. This article from another thread prompts me to ask this question:

Federal spending, which grew at a 1.4 percent rate, was only a minor contributor to GDP in the third quarter. Spending on national defense was flat. But in the second quarter, military spending on the Iraq (news - web sites) war — which grew at a 45.8 percent rate — helped to drive economic growth.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20031030/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy&cid=668&ncid=716

Although this pertains to the 2nd quarter, wouldn’t there be a ripple effect that would spill over into the 3rd quarter?

After all, didn’t FDR pull us out of the Depression with Government spending for WWII? The only difference of course was that Hitler et al were proven threats to democracy, not at all like Whistle Ass’s lies regarding Iraq.

Is the “success” of Whistle Ass’s economic policy then tied in with his “war without end?”

[OKNancy]

64. Foreign affairs

I just read today that most voters vote concerning foreign policy, not matter what they say. That is, if foreign policy is a mess that is what moves them.

Also, who knows what it will be like a year from now.

Democrats are still better anyway ;-)

[Upfront]

68. Howard Dean

is our charismatic candidate. Have you heard him speak? I have heard them all, JFK, RFK, Dr. King, Johnson, Carter, ect. ect. No one I have heard can touch Dean. I heard Clinton to and I always felt he was just a touch to smooth. He did a great job as President and would have my vote again. I also question these numbers as I see what I see, and it is bad, but please don't tell us we don't have a charismatic candidate, I know better. Just so you know, JFK was a great President, and he got this country going again, after a great republican general, who became President, had failed to do so. Whats new?

[SahaleArm]

76. I like Dean...

and I've heard him stump here in Seattle but he's not Clinton. To counteract Clinton's smooth, you've got Dean's harshness. I'm not sure the angry man schtick will play well in the general election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

88. Without Denigrading Dean

it's just plain silly to say Howard Dean is a better orator than Martin Luther King, Bobby Kennedy or John F Kennedy....


It reminds me of the poster here who compared Howard Dean's ascendancy to the governorship after Governor Snelling dying with Harry Truman's ascendancy to the presidency after FDR died during WW2.



I'll give you Carter and LBJ....

[stanwyck]

71. The whole "economy is up" will backfire

because to Joe Taxpayer, it isn't. So, the more the GOP flaunts the stock market and the GDP, the angrier the NASCAR Dads who are working survivor jobs are going to be. Likewise the underemployed managers who lost their jobs only to find ones, months later, at half their former pay. So, keep it up, conservatives. It's not a good strategy.

[number six]

72. Hang on...isn't that the sky falling in?

Does the phrase 'Chicken Little' mean anything here?

[TankLV]

73. The economy is so far in the toilet, that is like saying

that we're doing great because the job losses, bank failures, etc. we predicted aren't as bad as we thought.

Even with that "growth" - we're still so far in the negative, it'll be a long time till we get to "zero".

[West Coast Democrat]

77. Where's Osama? Where are the WMDs? Where are the Jobs?

Just keep hounding the Bushies on these questions.

[Andromeda]

79. No, No, No, Nooooooooo!

Think JOBS, not GDP. The economy has not translated into JOBS yet. More jobs have been lost in this country since the days of Herbert Hoover.

This sharp rise in the GDP just means that more products are being produced, overseas. Cheap labor, more money for the CEO's. They pocket the money and don't hire any more (American} workers.

The rich can buy another house in the Hamptons but the average Joe hasn't had a raise in two or three years and lives with uncertainty about his job, if he has one.

[Dr Fate]

84. Middle class wage earners long for meaningful RAISES!!!!

We need them- our benifits are being cut as well- people in the "middle class" are starting to live from pay check to pay check too- Bush's plan has not turned this trend...

[Pontus]

81. I hope the economy grows!

Sorry, I care more about my under-employed neighbors than I care about who wins in 2004. Let this be an election based on policies.

[Sworn Enemy]

87. Your Neighbors Will Have Great Jobs.

Great jobs getting shot at in George Bushes' military. That’s where the growth is coming from. Oh, and BTW, these numbers will be invariably revised downward. As far as policies go, do you mean policies like calling you any enemy combatant, locking you up and throwing away the key? How about the policy that says if you disagree with me you are treasonous? And that, bang up fucking, policy of "when in doubt...lie" Yep this election should be based on policies.

[Must_B_Free]

83. You call this spreading FUD?

this is weak! try again.

[Malva Zebrina]

86. Geez

I have great difficulty understanding economics--and am grateful to read the many posts by people on DU who are up on such things. Thanks.
I absolutely hate to log in to the Yahoo page and see a picture of Bush--a big picture--and there he is in all his glory, touting that economic recovery--with the usual backdrop and in this photo the backdrop is "Bush-Cheney 04 and the headline reads "Bush Takes Credit on GDP Growth, Outlook Cautious"

I can't stand it--I hate this man so much for killing so many people on a lie--I can't stand seeing this shit, this phoney taking credit for this.