Why Clark Will Win the Democratic Nomination

[DoveTurnedHawk]

I think Dean has run a fantastic campaign, and his ability to motivate supporters of all stripes is a powerful point in his favor. That said, I believe Clark has a big advantage, and it's the same advantage that Clinton had in 1992.

The South will carry Clark to victory.

The most recent South Carolina poll shows Clark breaking out of the pack with 17%, while his next closest competitor, Edwards, is at 10%. No other candidate breaks into double digits.

If Edwards can't win South Carolina, I suspect he will be forced to drop out. That will leave Clark as the only remaining Southerner for the rest of the primary race. More importantly, that will leave Clark as the only remaining Southerner for every other Southern primary, as they're all after South Carolina.

Dean and Clark may very well split the rest of the country, but Clark will sweep the South. If this trend bears out, Dean has another inherent disadvantage, specifically the Democratic method of selecting delegates.

Even if Dean wins narrowly in the majority of non-Southern states, the delegate difference will be nominal given the Democratic formula giving proportional representation to any candidate placing with at least 15%. In contrast, if Clark blows Dean out in the South (and the last demographic data I saw put Clark above 20% in Southern support, compared to mid-single digits for Dean), the delegate differential will be large. In fact, if Clark can keep Dean below 15% in various Southern states, Dean won't get any delegates at all.

If you look at the favorability ratings in South Carolina, Dean's negatives outweigh his positives. In contrast, Clark's positive-to-negative ratio is the best in the race. This reinforces my hypothesis, that Clark will win big victories in the South.

Finally, even if the South does not completely push Clark over the top, based on conversations with various connected insiders, Clark's perceived electability will mean more superdelegates voting for Clark over Dean. This also supports a (potentially ugly) win for Clark in the Democratic primaries.

I suspect Clark will practically be forced to select Dean as his running mate in order to help quell bitterness and discontent among the base over the influence of the South and superdelegates on the nomination process (they will claim "insider interests stole the nomination from Dean"), and also because Dean will have the largest war chest of all of the other candidates, which is an important factor given that VPs get to add their war chests to the Presidential candidate's campaign.

Clark/Dean. That's my prediction.

DTH

[papau]

1. I like Kerry better - but Clark is fine - if he can match Dean is getting

base happy and willing to help and vote.

[Skwmom]

6. I'm a Clark supporter but I like Kerry a lot too.

He's fought the good fight for many years.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

27. I support Clark as a first choice! Would like to see on of the....

following:

Clark/Edwards

Clark/Kerry

Clark/Dean

Kerry/Edwards

Edwards/Dean

[Rowdyboy]

51. Dth, as usual, you're

right. I fully expect to vote Clark/Dean in Nov 2004.

[Blue_Roses]

71. I like Kerry

and have alot of respect for him, but I don't think he can carry the south.

[Padraig18]

2. Not an unreasonable scenario.

And I agree--- he would have to pick Dean as his VP.

[oustemnow]

77. A Clark/Dean ticket

I'd rather see a Dean/Clark ticket, but in terms of political pragamtism, a Clark/Dean ticket gives me a damn chubby.

[West Coast Democrat]

3. I Think You May Be Right

For example, my boyfriend's mother lives in Georgia, and she is very interested in Clark. She is not even a very political person. When she first spoke to me about Clark, I believe it was before he even declared his candidacy, and she wasn't even sure which Party he belonged too, but was very much in support of him.

On another note, I wonder who Clark would pick for VP.

[StephNW4Clark]

10. I think either Dean or Gephardt.

I think Clark needs someone with a history of domestic affairs. Clark has the foreign affairs, global strategy aspect covered and has demostrated a very solid and rather remarkable grasp of domestic issues, but he needs someone who knows how to push through legislation.

[childslibrarian]

4. I'd be happy with this scenario

I'd also be happy with Dean/Clark. They compliment each other--one in domestic matters, one in foreign affairs...they need to get started early however, to present a solid front to the very corrupt and evil repubs...

[Cronus Protagonist]

5. I think you're right.

Seems perfectly feasible to me.

Click Here To See Fair & Balanced Buttons, Stickers & Magnets

[bobbieinok]

7. maybe clark/dean

(I'm in OK.)

I think Clark has a good chance in the south, especially if he attacks Bush on military, etc.

I think Dean would make it difficult; with him on the ticket the right-wing controlled media would focus 24/7 on homosexuality.

I think Clark could force the discussion to his points......

....The REAL problem is the republican controlled media. Would they even show/discuss Clark on the real issues?

....And then the NEXT problem - how far can we trust the vote result??? Just look at FL2000 and way too many (on the basis of apparently realistic polls just before the election) senate races that republicans won in 2002

[lastliberalintexas]

9. Why is this the talking point against Dean?

Just so you know, EVERY SINGLE ONE of our candidates has come out in support of civil unions. And, um, so has Dick Cheney.

But you're right, the media will only attack Dean on this issue. /sarcasm/

[StephNW4Clark]

11. Yeah, but Dean did it first.

The **media** will start raising this as an issue and because Dean did it first (which is not a bad thing at all) they will peg him as the one pushing it.

[lastliberalintexas]

16. I could be wrong here

but I think Kerry voted against the DOMA before Dean signed the Vermont civil unions bill. Timing won't be relevant to this discussion.

And if you realllly think the media and/or right wing pseudo-Christians will only go after Dean on this issue, I have a small bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to sell you. :)

Unfortunately, the poeple for whom this is an issue, won't be voting Dem even if Jesus H. Christ were our nominee.

[wyldwolf]

8. I'll add some perspective from Ruy Teixeira and Gallup

According to Ruy Teixeira, co-author of "The Emerging Democratic Majority," Clark's followers are right to suppose that their man's appeal is demographically broader than Dean's. In a post on the Emerging Democratic Majority blog, he analyzes an October Gallup poll to discern "The Demographics of Clarkism":

"While Clark receives more support than Dean among both men and women, his margin over Dean among women is just 3 points (16 percent to 13 percent), but an impressive 12 points among men (29 percent to 17 percent)," Teixeira points out. "He also beats Dean in every region of the country, but especially in the South (25 percent to 8 percent). Also intriguing is how well he does among low income voters (less than $20,000), clobbering Dean by 26 percent to 5 percent. In fact, Clark bests Dean in every income group up to $75,000. Above $75,000, Dean edges Clark, 26 percent to 25 percent."

Furthermore, unlike Dean, Clark seems to have significant support from black voters. He's been treated gently by Al Sharpton and endorsed by Rep. Charlie Rangel, D-N.Y. "When Charlie Rangel speaks up for somebody like General Clark, it speaks volumes in the black community," says Brazile.

Brooks-LaSure, an African-American who plans to work on communicating Clark's message to black communities nationwide, points out that when Dean spoke at a black church in South Carolina, the audience was primarily white. Clark, he insists, will appeal to black voters. "The general's experience growing up in Little Rock, and then in the military, where they boast of having more African-Americans in positions of management and leadership than any other organization in the world, you can tell is not something new for him," Brooks-LaSure says.

Finally, Clark has support among a constituency that doesn't relate to Dean at all -- those who think that Bush is a basically decent man who's doing a bad job as president. salon.com

[West Coast Democrat]

14. I wonder why Ron Faucheux picks Dean as the most likely

http://www.campaignline.com

I tend to think Dean will do well in the early primaries, but not the later primaries. I hope Clark's campaign will pick up somewhat.

Ron's analysis of Shrubs's chances are very interesting. Shrub just keep sliding downward.

[wyldwolf]

18. Who knows?

I've never understood oddsmakers and their methodology.

Many Dean supporters are in a eupohoric state about Dean based on his impressive grassroots campaign.

Perhaps he's drawing on that feeling. But who knows?

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

33. It makes perfect sense low income voters would like Clark

Great post.

Who do you think serves in the armed forces? Who relies on the retirement, health care, and employment of the military?

Let's see, we have professional politicians, business executives, CEOs, and other rich people in every election. Most low income Americans would consider a general as an equal, if not better, choice. He's been in the military, just like they and their families have.

Not to mention that the business executives and politicians like Bush have gotten us into the position of fighting two wars and close to more, all at the same time. After all, low income Americans are doing the fighting and dying. Perhaps they like the idea of a President who won a war with international cooperation and zero US casualties.

Want to end war? Tell me the name of the current executive of Halliburton and we'll call him up and make him stop. If you're not willing to get rid of your car, or pay $20 a gallon for gas, you're in no position to criticize the people that do the fighting and dying, no matter what war crimes they commit. Let's see you follow the rules under similar conditions.

[MoonRiver]

12. I'm an adamant Midwestern Clark supporter,

who completely agrees with your hypothesis. I like Dean a lot, but I believe that Clark, whom I equally like, is more electable. So my position is, all things being equal, back the winner.

[JVS]

13. I think that Clark will lose to Dean in this race.

Clark and Dean together are pretty much keeping other candidates from having a chance at the nomination. I think that those who would prefer another candidate will be more easily had by Dean than Clark.

[Kahuna]

32. Really! Based upon what?

What makes you think...

I think that those who would prefer another candidate will be more easily had by Dean than Clark.

Is it just a hunch or do you have so polls that suggest trends to support your statement?

[JVS]

35. Based on conversations that aren't just pro-Clark circle jerks.

You may prefer to ignore them. Feel free.

[Kahuna]

67. "Conversations?" That's a good one.

:eyes:

[JVS]

89. Go ahead and pretend I'll vote for Clark if that makes you happy.

and pretend that all the other leftists who find him unacceptable will vote for him too.

[Justice]

96. Can you explain?

Seriously - I agree with this sentence:

Clark and Dean together are pretty much keeping other candidates from having a chance at the nomination.

Can you explain this one, I don't understand what you mean?

I think that those who would prefer another candidate will be more easily had by Dean than Clark.

[Skwmom]

15. I'm sorry but I do not want Dean on the ticket.

One of the things I like most about Clark is his integrity. Dean is another smarmy politician (you can't believe a word he says and he is crass). I do not want someone like that as second in line to the presidency. His affirmative action comment has landed like a thud in the south and if he picked Dean as a running mate I don't think it would go over very well at all. In addition, Clark needs someone who understands Washington politics.

I'm sure Dean will throw a temper tantrum and try to bully his way on the ticket. Too bad.

[Hawkeye-X]

20. Unfortunately you are sadly misinformed.

I would suggest you go to a Dean meetup and/or attend a Dean rally. You will see why Dean is the top-tier candidate, because he IS for the little people. Clark is fine, but he has ZERO political experience. Clark is the Democratic version of Ahhhhnold. Believe me.

Hawkeye-X

[DoveTurnedHawk]

24. "Clark is the Democratic version of Ahhhhnold."

Only to the extent that Clark is electable, and will prove why lack of insider experience will be irrelevant to the American people.

Aside from that, there is no comparison. Clark is light-years ahead on every issue, on character, on accomplishments.

Believe me.

Now Hawk, why would I want to do that, based on your distasteful effort to smear Clark by comparing him to Arnold?

DTH

[PROGRESSIVE1]

30. Hold On!!!!! Does Clark say stupid things like DAS GROPER?

Has he harrassed women????

Is he a power hungry thug???

Is he doing this to help ENRON???

The answer, Hawkeye, is, NO!!!!!!!!!!!


I was offended by your comparison!

[Kahuna]

34. I can't stand the sight of Dean...

I'll not be going to his meetups or anything else.

[Kahuna]

29. Don't worry. Dean isn't going to be on the ticket..

with Clark. I don't think Clark would be that desperate to select Dean. Dean adds nothing to the ticket.

Remember.. Gore had substantial gravitas that helped Clinton. Cheney likewise for Bush. Sorry Deanies, but Dean ain't got no gravitas. He's crude and unpredictable. He says really stupid things. I can't see Wes puttin' up with that crap.

[Tatiana]

53. Well, Dean deserves something.

Say what you will about the guy, but he has done the party a great service by motivating people who otherwise wouldn't care to be part of the political process. Not only that, but he was the catalyst of the growing anti-Bush sentiment that finally got the pansy media to finally start reporting Bush in a (somewhat) truthful light. If he isn't on the ticket, he certainly deserves a cabinet post.

[janekat]

91. I agree that Dean should have some sort of role - he's great at motivating

people. I don't know about VP - I truthfully think he would be better in some sort of position where he is a little bit freer. I think he'd be "chomping at the bit" as VP. How about Surgeon General.

[Tatiana]

97. Excellent suggestion n/t.

[RetroLounge]

80. "I'm sure Dean will throw a temper tantrum"

Like you do every time Dean is mentioned? Then disappear and not respond to anyone?

:boring:

as ar as a Clark/Dean or a Dean/Clark ticket?

Either would be great, IMO, and I would vote and campaign just as hard for either one. Can you say the same?

[Hawkeye-X]

17. Skipping Iowa will hurt Clark

Believe me.

He won't be able to carry South Carolina. It will be Dean/Clark at the end. Clark needs political experience, although I do admire his stance and what he stands for, because I still firmly believe that it was a major error on Clark's part to enter the presidential race with ZERO political experience. He has no governing experience. Dean does, and he stands out alone and will carry all states, and finally remove the Chimp from squatting the White House.

I will support Clark in 2012.

Hawkeye-X

[wyldwolf]

19. You base all this on a hunch?

[Hawkeye-X]

23. I don't base it on a hunch

Unfortunately, Clark has ZERO political experience. All he has to represent is the military/foreign affairs experience. What else can he do? I know he is a econ professor at West Point, that's all good and done, but what else? He has no experience governing the people. Dean does.

Hawkeye-X

[wyldwolf]

26. Ok, a hunch. Thought so...

[Hawkeye-X]

31. Talk to the hand

Since you're just ignoring my reasoning.

Hawkeye-X

[wyldwolf]

37. If that is where your brain is...

You said "He won't be able to carry South Carolina" (although he currently leads it) because of reasons that are your opinions. So it a hunch that voters will agree with you and he will lose SC.

[Julien Sorel]

62. Here's a hand to talk to:

[Kahuna]

36. Right! He only has CIC experience to offer..... OOPS!

I forgot. That's part of the job! Go Wes.

[JVS]

90. Don't you know that nothing can hurt Clark? He's invincible.

[janekat]

92. Anyone who is a General would have experience in leading/governing

n/t

[Justice]

95. ZERO

Clark has NATO experience - which was diplomatic as well as military.

Dean has ZERO foreign policy experience - that is a HUGE negative.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

21. I Doubt It

Competing after he's already way behind on organization and then finishing 4th or 5th would have hurt him. Conceding an arcane, outdated system that is already stacked against him won't hurt him much at all.

The only way Iowa hurts him is if AFSCME endorses someone else because Clark skipped Iowa.

The rest of your thesis, namely that Clark's lack of experience is dispositive, has already been undermined by polls showing "insider" experience doesn't matter to most, and also by the election of the brute Schwarzenegger.

DTH

[Hawkeye-X]

25. Fine. If you want a Democratic version of Ahhhhnold

then vote for Clark.

:eyes:

I still think you're making a mistake. But I will, of course, stand by whoever wins the nomination process at the end.

Hawkeye-X

[DoveTurnedHawk]

28. Enough Vague Slams

Give me SPECIFICS on why you think Clark is the same as Arnold. The thesis is ridiculous, IMO.

DTH

[Hawkeye-X]

39. OK.

First let me apologize for the slam.

You and I have the same respect for each other, since we share (most) ideologies here.

Clark came in late, about four or five months after the candidates started to pull out, and the union vote will go to Dean next week, both AFSCME and the SEIU union votes, hurting both Clark and Gephardt since they are both the largest unions today.

I've heard Clark speak, and heard Dean speak on TV. Clark strikes me as a bit arrogant, albeit intelligent. Dean, however, speaks very plainly, and I feel that this man can do this job. Dean has the political experience needed for this job as a President. Dean has 12 years of governing a small state. Same thing for Bill Clinton, and he won the Presidency. The only difference between Dean and Clark is that Dean has far more political experience, which Clark has the most experience in military/foreign affairs as well as economics experience due to his professorship in economics at the West Point.

Both fit each other uniformely, and I don't dispute that. The only thing I dispute is that Clark doesn't really have the experience needed to become a President. Although I do not oppose him, and will support him if he gets the nomination, it is my worry that he will be overwhelmed by this large and ardous task in front of him. Dean can handle it with no problems, since he was thrown into the gauntlet soon after Snelling died of a heart attack, and proven himself admirably with over 12 years of experience, voted in 5 straight times, have taken care of Vermont very well.

I like both men, and they would complement each other far better if Dean was President and Clark was Vice President and learned from each other, and definetely help each other. Both are quite young in terms of age, and this will help lead to hopefully 16 years of Democratic administration if properly done.

It is your choice if you wish to support Clark, and I respect that. I just feel that Clark is not ready, just yet. Like Edwards is wet behind the ears (One term senator, come on, gimme a break)....

Hawkeye-X

[DoveTurnedHawk]

40. Thanks (LONG)

First let me apologize for the slam.

No problem, thanks for having the guts and integrity to recognize it.

You and I have the same respect for each other, since we share (most) ideologies here.

I think that's right. I'm glad we're having a good dialogue about this.

Clark came in late, about four or five months after the candidates started to pull out, and the union vote will go to Dean next week, both AFSCME and the SEIU union votes, hurting both Clark and Gephardt since they are both the largest unions today.

See, I don't think Dean will get BOTH AFSCME and SEIU, based on what I've read and heard.

I think it's either "Dean" or "no endorsement" for SEIU.

I think it's either Kerry or Clark for AFSCME. I do not believe BOTH SEIU and AFSCME will endorse the same candidate, based on what I've read of their past history and rivalry.

I've heard Clark speak, and heard Dean speak on TV. Clark strikes me as a bit arrogant, albeit intelligent. Dean, however, speaks very plainly, and I feel that this man can do this job.

I respect that that's your opinion, even if I might disagree with it. Personally, Dean's speeches fire me up and fill me with anger, but Clark's speeches inspire me and fill me with hope. For a cynical bastard like me, that's no small feat.

Dean has the political experience needed for this job as a President. Dean has 12 years of governing a small state. Same thing for Bill Clinton, and he won the Presidency.

No argument there, I've never slammed Dean for lack of governing experience. The closest I've ever come is within the context of Dean not governing a significant military budget or force.

The only difference between Dean and Clark is that Dean has far more political experience, which Clark has the most experience in military/foreign affairs as well as economics experience due to his professorship in economics at the West Point.

I think we're close to being on the same page here. Here's why I believe Clark has additional experience, however: Clark has run military bases, at times multiple military bases whose population was larger than Vermont's. He was responsible for executive functions, and he knows what problems face communities. Now, he didn't have to deal with a fractious legislative branch, I'll give you that, but he did have to allocate resources, play politics with the higher-ups, and juggle all kinds of complex issues. I don't think he's as much of a tyro as you appear to believe.

Both fit each other uniformely, and I don't dispute that. The only thing I dispute is that Clark doesn't really have the experience needed to become a President.

And I think this is the point where we fundamentally disagree. It is easier to learn how to draft legislation (or rather, learn how to have your staff draft legislation) and submit it to Congress, than to learn how to make foreign policy decisions in a crisis.

Both Dean and Clark will have able staffs (staves?). Domestic policy, by its very nature, is more plodding and methodical, and involves more opportunities to resubmit and amend legislation. In contrast, you can't unfire a cruise missile. It's also much harder to repair a relationship if you say or do the wrong thing, and to be completely honest, I'm much more afraid of gaffes coming from Dean than from Clark. Clark has a lot more foreign policy experience on this end, as well, since Clark had to help herd 19 fractious cats during the NATO action in Kosovo.

These illustrations are a bit simplistic, but I hope they get across the point I am attempting to convey.

Although I do not oppose him, and will support him if he gets the nomination, it is my worry that he will be overwhelmed by this large and ardous task in front of him.

That could be said of anyone, Dean included. Governing a small state whose population is lower than the NATO forces is a far cry from governing America.

I have confidence that both men could handle it.

Dean can handle it with no problems, since he was thrown into the gauntlet soon after Snelling died of a heart attack, and proven himself admirably with over 12 years of experience, voted in 5 straight times, have taken care of Vermont very well.

Again, I view Vermont as a far cry from America.

I like both men, and they would complement each other far better if Dean was President and Clark was Vice President and learned from each other, and definetely help each other. Both are quite young in terms of age, and this will help lead to hopefully 16 years of Democratic administration if properly done.

I see it the other way around. Dean will learn key foreign policy skills as Clark's VP. The time for Clark is now, while we have foreign policy crises in Iraq and in the War on Terror, and while we're running against an incumbent whose only selling point is his "experience" as a wartime pResident.

After 8 years of Clark, Dean will have even more relevant experience than he does now, and he'll have learned foreign policy under someone I believe will turn out to be an incredible President, with a mastery of foreign policy.

It is your choice if you wish to support Clark, and I respect that. I just feel that Clark is not ready, just yet. Like Edwards is wet behind the ears (One term senator, come on, gimme a break)....

I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this, Hawk. But thanks for the discussion, I've enjoyed it.

:toast:

DTH

[Hawkeye-X]

74. Hmm

DTH - you still have me thinking again.

I'm still for Dean, but you make strong cases for Clark. I would not mind going either way. Although Dean does have the necessary political experience working with both Republicans and Democrats on the legislative side, I still have minor problems with Clark's experience managing military bases as comparing managing the people of Vermont.

While I don't dispute that Clark's experience on military bases are quite larger than Vermont, what I do dispute is that it is not the same as managing the people. You have to remember that Clark is a commander of the military base. Believe me, I worked for Lockheed Martin at Davis-Monthan AFB in Tucson, AZ for a brief time. I met the commander there, a Lt. Colonel Roberts, he strikes me as a superior as a civilian, but generally a very nice man. I was also there when 9/11 occurred and we were literally kicked out of the base under Threatcon Delta on the aftermath, since the AFB is an active one and does contain rehabilitated planes. I have no problems what that, but what I had problems was the lack of money I was supposed to get paid because it was an problem, so I'm a bit worried that Clark might do the same thing that when another attack occurs.

In any case, I would rather have a civilian President, but if Clark manages to get on the administration as Secretary of Defense, or even Secretary of State (Like ol' Powell), then I have no problems with that either way, and it also preserves his integrity as a commander and keeps his keen military mind open, and hopefully will gain necessary experience as a President in the near future. Remember, both Dean and Clark are young age-wise. Dean is almost 55, and Clark is what, 52?

Hawkeye-X

[Kool Kitty]

76. Clark is 58 years old.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

79. Cool

I think we can reasonably agree to disagree now. I respect your thinking, your rationale and your concerns, and I totally get why you love Dean. Let's toast to getting that goddamn bastard out of the White House, regardless of who our nominee is. :-)

:toast:

DTH

[Kahuna]

38. Has Arnold been knighted, and have silver and purple ..

hearts? Was Arnold Commander in Chief of Allied Nato Forces? I must've missed that movie ya'll. :eyes:

[roguevalley]

22. I hear Clark is polling first in S. Carolina.

I think it comes down to Dean and Clark, no matter which is first or second. I want Clark.

[FrenchieCat]

42. You will get what you want.....

Cause what you want is what this country also wants and needs.

Clark would clean up that damn foreign policy so we can learn to live like normal people again. No more terror alerts unless warranted. No more using politics to manipulate. Hello a fair and balanced FCC.....maybe even get the rules pushed back to pre 1987, like Clark sais it should be. Clark, as he stated (just because it come with a "military" label on it doesn't mean much to me) will cut the military budget of all of it's "fat"...but take care of the veterans. As a proven diplomat (Dayton Accords) he will work the congress to get what he wants. He will easily go over their heads to the people and have them apply pressure...so he-lo health care and shoring up of Social Security. Remember that Clark has a masters in Philosophy, Economics and Politics. Means he's a poet that knows about the world and it's functions. I surely hope my dreams of having a real president for all of the people and having America become a gentile Superpower will come true.

Damn, just the thought makes me a all giddy!

[jsw_81]

41. Won't work

This is the strategy Gore used in 1988. It didn't work for him and it won't work for Clark.

Get ready for President Dean.

[FrenchieCat]

45. Always a candidate, never a president Dean, you mean.....

Answer why.......are the Republicans having their convention in New York....and the last day of the convention is 9/11?????? The day that the President will make his big rousing GOP Speech.

Don't you think that foreign policy experience is going to be a topic of conversation?

How is Dean going to respond to that conversation....Will he say what he said at the debates....well, I have as much experience as Bush had when he became President.....Wow, how reassuring will that be, I wonder. Will he say, I have some good advisors around me? Sounds like what Bush had said 4 years ago....and look what happened.

Let stay as close to reality as possible, Shall we?

[DoveTurnedHawk]

57. What a Fantastic, Detailed Analysis!

You've clearly put me to shame.

DTH

PS: It worked for Clinton.

[Stuckinthebush]

43. I'm fine with that

I'd prefer Dean, but Clark would be great.

All of them would be great. I even think that Lieberman would do a fine job - much better than the current bozo.

[MGKrebs]

44. Good analysis.

Only caveat I would add is that Clark doesn't have much in the way of troops on the ground yet (as far as I know), and the primaries are quickly approaching. I think he is running largely on resume right now. That may carry him, but if other candidates can get their troops mobilized, it could still be a tough fight.

[FrenchieCat]

46. Now that makes sense.....

However, the part a lot who have not followed or met the General don't understand is the appeal that he leaves behind wherever he goes....Why do you think NH poll has him at 14% already, 3rd place without even a commercial.

What you not understanding is the "IT" factor. That is a factor overlooked by many .....but as powerful as the resume, the actual CIC experience, the intelligence, the intense earnesty and the positive campaign to date.

The "IT" factor will work it's magic.....

"IT" = Charisma, Gravitas and Moxie for those who are wondering.

[DrFunkenstein]

47. I Think We'll Switch Over Much Easier To Clark

Than to Dean. Clark has run a positive race. No one is close to Kerry for me, but I would be proud to support Clark.

He may be new to the Party, but at the very least he doesn't call fellow Democrats "cockroaches."

[jsw_81]

50. Well...

At least Dean didn't give speeches praising the "terrific" leadership of Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

58. Yawn

What a non-issue. No one will care about that come the primaries, especially as Clark continues to establish his unquestionably Democratic credentials.

DTH

[jsw_81]

66. Non-issue

You think it's a "non-issue" that your guy was practically kissing Bush's ass less than two years ago?

[FrenchieCat]

75. I don't think that Clark got any Brown on his nose, sorry

Unless you count being diplomatic as being a brown noser. It say not. Diplomacy is a virtue to have as CIC.

read here the full paragraph of contention:
------------------
You see, in the Cold War we were defensive. We were trying to protect our country from communism. Well guess what, it's over. Communism lost. Now we've got to go out there and finish the job and help people live the way they want to live. We've got to let them be all they can be. They want what we have. We've got some challenges ahead in that kind of strategy. We're going to be active, we're going to be forward engaged. But if you look around the world, there's a lot of work to be done. And I'm very glad we've got the great team in office: men like Colin Powell, Don Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Condolzeezza Rice, Paul O'Neill--people I know very well--our president, George W. Bush. We need them there, because we've got some tough challenges ahead in Europe.
----------------------
notice he says he is glad to have them in office for the challenges ahead in EUROPE!
READ THE REST OF THE SPEECH AND JUDGE IF CLARK WAS KISSING ANYBODY'S BOOTY....I SAY NOT!
Lincoln Day speech:
http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110004065

THEN TAKE A LISTEN
www.liberalresurgent.com/mooreclark.mp3

[Bread and Circus]

59. I hope Clark continues to run a good race...

and doesn't go negative....

If he does I am going to kick his ass...

but I will still love him

[DoveTurnedHawk]

60. Wes Clark Jr. Thinks It Is VERY Unlikely That His Father Will Go Negative

At least, not on any of the Democratic candidates. He will respond to and defend himself against the attacks of others, however.

DTH

[Bread and Circus]

61. Wes Clark is my effin hero...

I love that man...

[Kahuna]

68. Me too!

I think he's great. He's great just for making the sacrifice to run for president because we asked him to. God bless him. I think he's a sweetheart.

[kodi]

48. scenario: open convention, 2-3rd ballot votes gore, who picks clark as vp

no one goes to SF with the delagates to win it on the first ballot. dean ahead, clark second. small changes during second ballot.. kingmakers get involved.. blah blah blah the "good of the party" gore steps in, clark vp for defense positions, dean gets sec of HHS.

[andym]

52. It's not impossible that no one will win outright

With so many candidates, and a front-loaded primary season,
it could happen that no one wins the nomination outright.
Your guess is as good as any as to what might happen.

[kodi]

65. if gephardt drops out within a month after SC the party regs back clark

it will prevent dean from getting the necessary votes to win in SF outright.

all along the kingmakers have fought against a rise in populism in the party, fearing it would sweep them aside. they undermined gore in 2001-2 since he was a threat and about to embark on building a populist movement in the party that would generate a second center of power in the party.

so they stopped gore, but what arose was dean whom they have absolutely no control over.

they screwed up and now have the devil that they dont know versus the one, gore, they did, and are more than willing to back gore because with gore in the white house they will lose less power than if dean is in the oval office.

i dont see dean winning the nomination on the first ballot and if he doesn't, he wont ever win it. the kingmakers wont let it happen.
i think it will be gore, or clark.

[OKNancy]

84. I noticed twice you put SF

do you mean San Francisco? FWIW, the Democratic Convention in 2004 is in Boston.

[kodi]

86. yeah, i forgot

i get those bastions of crazied liberalism mixed up.

[loyalsister]

49. AND!!

Zell Miller just "legitimized" the idea that allegiance to an organization is not a ncessary prerequisite to ask them for money to win an election.

[Bread and Circus]

54. Clark will win...

becaust this is fascism vs liberty.


I want a Clark/Dean ticket

Clark to clean up the FP issues
and to pave the way for Dean to kick ass
on right wing fascists and help
with domestic issues....

after a coupla beers...now you really know awhat I think...

[Bread and Circus]

55. Bush=fascism,

Clark = liberty, justness.

[Donna Zen]

56. Picked up at Donkey Rising:

Clark needs to enter the convention with 36% of the vote count to win.

<edit> I'm not saying he'll get that percentage without a fight, but the analysis was very impressive.

[Booger]

63. Clark/Clinton

?

[calimary]

64. I'm a Deanie myself, but can't help but be drawn to Mr. Wesley also.

Frankly, if he's the one, I'll be happy. I can support him eagerly. I do prefer Dean, but Clark is a close second. Either one would be a worthy occupant of the white House, and either one would be a breath of fresh air after this stifling, fraudulent madness we're suffocating beneath!

I can envision a HUGE, world-wide sigh of relief when Dean or Clark is sworn in in January of 2005, and a certain spoiled little frat boy sits stewing on the dais, over in the corner. Frankly, I'd be surprised if he's even capable of being a good enough sport to show up on Innauguration Day if the party's not for him. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see him stay home, boiling in his own snit-fit. Which is the least he deserves.

[janekat]

93. If Bush loses there'd be dancing in the streets all over the world

n/t

[osaMABUSh]

69. I like Dean but the Repukes are afraid of Clark so...

if I was a betting man, I'd put my money on Clark. I have spoken with some repukes and they are dissing Clark as an opportunist who has come along now only because he is a General to run for President at a time of "War". Exactly. And they are scarred shitless of him. That reason alone leads me to believe that Clark should be our nominee and that he will beat Bush.

My personal preference would be Dean then Kerry. But under the realization that we must win this election I have to hope, in my heart of hearts, that we get Clark.

I'm from the North but I'd rather see a moderate Southern dem than a "liberal" North Easterner. History has shown us that.

As far as the VP goes, I really think that Clark and Anbody would be fine. I still think Graham of FLA would be an excellent choice to solidify FLA and add more National Security expertise on the Dem ticket.

[FrenchieCat]

72. As I don't like to gamble......

not in this important race.....that is why I have chosen Clark (plus I think that he will have to prove his democratic credentials....and I know that he will)

If you haven't seen this Clark interview, please watch it.
http://tinyurl.com/t4t7

[retyred]

70. While I agree with most

of your post, I don't see Clark choosing any of the losing candidates as a running mate, that would appear to some that Clark feels he needs some of what that other candidate had....in order to win. It would undermine his Presidency by being accused of winning not on his own but as an also on the ticket.IMHO



Retyred In Fla
So I Read This Book

[Capn Sunshine]

73. It just ain't happening DTH

unless Clarks campaign does a dramatic turnabout, they wil be lucky to remain intact post New Hampshire. I'm not one of the "Dean walks on water" types , but the internal discord and lack of a cohesive forward looking campaign is turning all your enthusiasm into so much steam. I really think all of you need to take a break from DU, talk amongst yourselves, and determine what is the best course to sieze your campaign back and put it in forward gear so you cam make a showing somewhere, anywhere.
But since you don't listen to ME , how about a Clark admirer?
Josh Marshall puts it best:

"I think he did very well in the last debate.<snip>

But that doesn't change the fact that the campaign is not organized with a clear message or an evident strategy for winning the nomination. At least that's what I see from where I'm sitting. And this is coming from a real admirer of the candidate.<snip>


Clark has only been in this race for six weeks or so. So I doubt there's any great harm done -- from an optics standpoint -- if he does some reshuffling. Campaigns are hard to put together, all the more so on the fly and quickly. All true.

But at the moment I just don't see the kind of campaign I think Clark needs to win. To paraphrase the UNCF, a great candidate is a terrible thing to waste. "

So really, pay attention to what's happening with the cart before you hitch up the horse, guys!

[DoveTurnedHawk]

78. You Apparently Missed the Follow-Up TPM Article

Marshall says that despite his critique, he definitely still feels Clark can win, and that Clark is probably the strongest potential candidate out there.

Anyway, thanks for your thoughts, and I look forward to meeting you in person on the 7th.

:toast:

DTH

[Bread and Circus]

81. If Edwards and Lieberman drop out....

It would cinch the deal in the South for Clark.

[RandomUser]

87. I don't think Edwards will drop out before SC

If he doesn't make the nomination, I would love to see him as AG. But you're right, if those two drop out, Clark has the best chance of taking the southern primaries.

[DemExpat]

82. Clark/Dean! I hope to God you're correct, DTH.......

What a great ticket to beat these Repubs out of Washington!
I would be so thrilled.....

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

DemEx

[0rganism]

83. So if Clark rides those southern states to the nomination...

... which of those states, if any, does he have a decent chance of carrying in the general election?

It would be a damn shame to put someone on the ballot who demoralizes the base in new england and the west coast -- not saying that Clark necessarily would, mind you -- and yet didn't pull in the very states that put him on the ballot.

[wyldwolf]

85. In my estimation, Clark would carry Tennnessee, Arkansas, Louisiana...

..and possibly Florida if Jebby doesn't pull more strings.

Why would Clark demoralize the base in New England or the West Coast?

[Maddy McCall]

94. I see him carrying Mississippi too...

there is much disgust here with Bush, since so many Southerners have sons and daughters in the military and they are disenchanted with Bush's war decisions at all stages.

[durutti]

88. I Think You're Right, BUT...

I won't vote for him. Not even in the general election. Clark is part and parcel of the military-industrial complex. I'll either vote for a third party candidate or abstain.