Dean in the swing states

[jumptheshadow]

I'd just like an honest assessment from Dean and non-Dean supporters.

How well will he do in the swing states we need to win during a General Election?

Try to convince me. Show me polls. Show me Meetup statistics. Tell me about Dean's organization and volunteer levels in swing states. Tell me about the demographics and specific issues on a state-by-state basis and show me how his current platform addresses those issues.

Dean has run a creative, well-engineered primary campaign. Can he expand the campaign to embrace the general population (which usually means a shift to the right) without losing his core supporters?

[JNelson6563]

1. I'll let you do your own work

as I have little use for posters who come in demanding specific answers and act as if they'd know what to do withthem but, apparently haven't heard of "google".

I'll help you along this much, Michigan is a swing state, 17 electoral votes. Dean leads in Michigan. Michigan is a good representative state of the general population because of its diversity on many levels.

Julie

[jumptheshadow]

2. This was a sincere request

And I am truly looking for sincere responses. Dean will be MY candidate if he wins the nomination. And:

1) Not everybody has time on their hands to Google. In my case I am working day and night to save a business -- and several people's jobs -- in a city with a devastated economy. (And yes, thank you, the work is starting to pay off.)

2) The beauty of this board is that people come to it from all geographic and demographic sectors. In a split second they can give me statistical information it would take me hours to look up. They can also give me anecdotal information that you would never find on Google.

[JNelson6563]

6. pretty lengthy ass list friend

Try to convince me. Show me polls. Show me Meetup statistics. Tell me about Dean's organization and volunteer levels in swing states. Tell me about the demographics and specific issues on a state-by-state basis and show me how his current platform addresses those issues.

That is one big request for info. How adorable you think folks have hours (and inclination) to research and compile it all for you.

Seems to me there's plenty of time for you to check back for replies and then reply with excuses and declarations of sincerity.....

Here's a start for you:

http://www.deanforamerica.com/

Lots of the sort of info you are looking for here.

Julie

[jumptheshadow]

12. I have no doubt

That people have that information at their fingertips.

And yes, thank you, I've been to the Dean site. It would be way cool if, let's say, a Dean supporter in Michigan would tell me:

"These are the major issues in MY state. Here's why Dean will win MY state in the general election."

One observation: I'm glad that the many friends I have who are Dean supporters aren't defensive like some of the Dean supporters are on this board. I'm glad that they're helpful with information.

However, we all live in a heavily Democratic city so, short of searching in the local newspaper archives in swing states, I don't have any real feel for what's happening at the grassroots level.

[JNelson6563]

39. I gave you brief summary of Michigan

and I am in the north. Dean is bringing previously uninvolved Michiganders out in droves up here. As a board member of the local Dem party I am stressing party strength to them, encouraging full participation.

We have hunters, they like guns. R's can't say Dean will take your guns. We have many anti-war folks. Dean won their hearts early on. We have lots of real conservatives who know Bush ain't one. They like Dean's fiscally conservative views. Downstate we have the largest concentration of Arab-Americans in the US. Dean had the audacity to call for "even-handed" behavior by us in the I/P conflict, winning many votes from those Arab-Americans.

There is no end to the diversity in Michigan. Dean seems to have wide appeal for a great many of these folks.

Hope this helps.

Julie

[Upfront]

58. Dean In Michigan

Dean will win in Michigan for several reasons. A big one is he is right on gun control. He was the first one we heard stand up to the Bush lies and mean it. He intends to win. Take the time to hear him speak at a rally , not these crappy debaits, and you will have your answer. You won't agree with him on all the issues but you will realize that he will win, and you will know that with him, it is just not more polital bull, he beleives what he says. His campaign is funded by donations that average 87 dollers. He wants to take America back from big money and he has found the way to raise the money and not be owned by the special interests. He is very, very, smart, and I beleive him to be honest. He has changed his openions on some issues over the years as anyone who wants to get it right will do. I have been to all the meet ups in my area, and we have grown by leaps and bounds. It is stunning to me. His base hear is very fired up and means to elect this man. I took your request serious, good luck with your business. We need the jobs.:-)

[bearfartinthewoods]

3. sheesh

one of the best things about DU is how it functions as an information clearing house. google is a good toool but it could take days to wade through all the Dean stuff to try to get the answers. what is so wrong with asking here first?

[JNelson6563]

7. http://www.deanforamerica.com/

I wonder why the poster who authored this thread couldn't come up with this?

I caught your tag line, I must say, I never noticed a spelling problem with you Bear. Certainly other problems but not spelling. ;-)

Julie

[Bread and Circus]

10. I thought Dean was tied for 1st overall but in 1st regarding internet...

voters...among dems (in Michigan)

I still think Bush polls head to head in MI

That will change.

Clark or Dean could beat him though.

I think Dean can win some of the midwest swing
states. I don't think he can win the south.

I think Clark can win a lot of the swing states
as well as a lot of the south.

W/ Jeb and Diebold, why take any risks?

Clark will win.

Dean is still my second guy. They are both exciting
candidates.

[leyton]

45. Possible to win without southern states?

Yeah, yeah, I know there's the whole "can't win without a state in the South" thing. Ironically, George Bush is the first Republican in a long time to win without carrying California. I'm saying these things can change.

I think if Dean has enough appeal in the midwest, he could eke out a win without the southern states. Looking at the electoral college map of 2000, if he kept the states Gore won and added states such as Ohio and Indiana (at least, I think it was Indiana) he could win. There's also the possibility of adding at least one southern state by putting a southerner like Clark on the ticket. I think that winning enough in the midwest and carrying a couple of the states that are trending left (Louisiana and Arizona) could carry a Democrat to victory.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

48. Indiana? Not even Clinton won Indiana! That is not a possibility

for any Democrat. Ohio yes.
The swing states are: New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire, Arizona (maybe), Oregon, Wisconsin, and maybe WV.

[Bombtrack]

49. here's where you don't get it

It's not absolutley essential for a dem to win several southern states, but it is essential to make them competative ENOUGH that the GOP need to work there asses off in those places or at least break a sweat there.

They would correctly write off the south, and most right-leaning regions in general if Dean were the nominee, allowing them to concentrate on much easier victories in their top blue-state targets of OR, NM, WI, IO, and PA... and beyond.

Louisiana???? Dean would lose it by 3 times the margin Gore did. It's not leaning left. Both candidates to win last december were clear centrist/moderates, and Bobby Jindal is the frontrunner for next weeks election for governor.

Please see my post below(#44) about what would need to occur in order for Dean to have any hope of winning somewhere like even New Hampshire.

[Blue_Roses]

61. I think it's so important to say a few quick

things that will BENEFIT Dean right off the bat to someone who is wavoring, rather than telling them to "google." You say you are working with his campaign and YOU of all people should go to bat for him in a heart beat. That is what he and all the other candidates need, people who can support him right off the cuff.

You are gonna have alot more people asking you WHY they should support Dean and asking them to go "google" will not get him elected.

WE need to throw our support behind these candidates working so hard for us and nothing short is acceptable.

[Bombtrack]

4. Dean would make almost every Gore state a swing state

in all likelihood. I never say he is unelectable, but he is the least electable serious candidate(not much less than Gephardt thoughand maybe more).
I base this on the opinion of every professor that I've personally been tought under and whom I've met that I've discussed it with, the few party operatives I've gotten to know, the fact that almost every smart right wing strategist, pollster, and operative that I've heard(through media etc) WANTS him to get the nomination wholeheartedly.

And most of all through my 3 years of polisci study(HS and college) and my 2 years of public policy analysis as a major.

As much as his supporters tell me I haven't listened or researched Dean, that is BS. I've paid close attention to him from the very beginning.

And one thing his supporters will not let go is the bogus assertion that his or anyone else's strength in a primary parallels to strenghth in a national election, particular when the electoral college IS fundamentally most against you(whether on purely social or relatable grounds or overall), no more than 25 to 45 percent of voters agree with you on the most important issues(foreign policy, taxation, etc).

A democrat having one or two of his weaknesses is one thing, but Dean's political defense is so groundless, so based on EMOTION, over LOGIC from his supporters, that it seems to become more and more useless to argue with them.

They care more about there obsession with being right about Iraq, than they do about putting up a strong candidate, because people like Dean have convinced them of what a real democrat is, his disciminatory dogmatic model that includesonly those who agree with him.

He comes from arguably the most stereotypically left wing state. He has little to no foriegn policy or armed services credentials. His claim of being a fiscal conservative is not backed up by his platform(deficit-hawk would be the truthful discription). Very very few NRA-supporting voters are likely to agree with more than Bush on other issues(particularly civil unions). More crucial urban support would likely be lost than longshot rural support gained from his gun position. And frankly to the majority of independant, and probably ALL voters, he is much, much, less likable than any almost any candidate including Bush. His arrogance is only rivaled by Kerry, yet his testiness is unmatched. And voters will almost always go with the more optimistic party and/or candidate.

[NashVegas]

22. Vermont is Not Stereotypical

"Live in Vermont, do what you want," used to be a joking catch-phrase my out-of-state emigrent co-workers often used in the early '90s. There's a reason Vermont was on the Free-Staters list as a possible new home. Ben & Jerry's and Birkenstocks don't tell the full story.

Foreign policy: When George Bush took office, he'd been out of the country what? Two, maybe three times in his life?

As someone who's leaning towards Dean but not yet crossed-over into outright support, what's keeping me back is that I don't want to get my hopes up too high. What's got me almost ready to get off the fence is the surprise of how more-widespread his base becomes at every turn.

If Dean is the nominee, Rove will attempt to turn 2004 into a one-issue campaign where the governor is concerned: they will attack him relentlessly on Civil Unions in the attempt to keep his campaign focused on that one issue and have less time to devote to the world of other issues.

How Dean's campaign strategizes against that will make all the difference.

[tedoll78]

24. If I were Dean..

I'd run clips of Cheney's 2000 debate for everyone to see. If Dean's an extremist, so is Cheney.. and most people (that we have a shot with voting for us) aren't going to believe that Cheney is an extremist on the issue.

[Bombtrack]

26. But there are 3 much much better candidates

Who Rove and all others on the elite right DON'T want nominated

about Bush foriegn exp, foriegn policy was a background issue in 2000, and it's going to be the most important issue in 2004.

If you abslolutely need to nominate somebody with a minority anti-war opinion, it better be a 4-star general and not a doctor who's been on vacation alot.

Kerry was absolutly right when he said that "no is not a foriegn policy" and that "we're not electing a staff"

and Vermont is the only state with civil unions, I believe(Hawaii?)

the only state represented soley by a self-proclaimed socialist in the house, and the only state known as a hippy retirement community/ski resort, and it was the first state to go for Gore in 2000.

[NashVegas]

31. So Who's Your Third?

You only named two.

about Bush foriegn exp, foriegn policy was a background issue in 2000, and it's going to be the most important issue in 2004.

Yes, and if you look at Bush's record, he's doing miserably. Just hypothezing here, but if Dean takes the nomination, if he can get Maddie Albright in his corner, it'd go a long way.

"we're not electing a staff"

But we are electing a staff. The publicity given to various members of the Bush administration as a whole shows that. Condi, Donald, Wolfie, Christie, Karl, Ari, Colin all became household names ('cept for Colin who we already knew). If anything, the last two-three years have shown how much influence people holding the flanks have.

the only state represented soley by a self-proclaimed socialist in the house,

Vermont sends Bernie back every two years not because he's a Socialist but because he's not a Dem or a Republican.

and the only state known as a hippy retirement community/ski resort,

Ever heard of a place called Colorado?

and it was the first state to go for Gore in 2000.

Oh, quelle horror! Damn that 3rd lowest-population state in the Eastern Time Zone!

[Bombtrack]

35. Kerry, Edwards, and Clark

they all have flaws, but Dean is on a whole other level in unrelatablity and unlikablity to any number of people and voters.

I'll ellaborate about them if need be

[ModerateMiddle]

60. "Ever heard of a place called Colorado?"

There are resorts here in Colorado, but that's hardly all the state is. My county - El Paso - is about the size (population wise) as Vermont. The issues that Coloradans face are MUCH more complex than what Vermont had to address.

[ModerateMiddle]

59. I agree it will be one issue

if Dean is the nominee, but it won't be civil unions (that will play in the South, though). It will be National Security. It will be "Dean believed that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, but was unwilling to protect this country against them." or "As Governor, Howard Dean protected Vermont vigilantly against an invasion from Canada, but was unwilling to confront a real danger - Saddam Hussein."

If Dean is the nominee, 2004 will be ALL about National Security.

[Bombtrack]

65. and Raising middle class taxes

and putting too much emphasis away from US interests(I.E., taking France and Germany's position on Iraq, and instantly taking Koffi Annan's on Liberia

[AWD]

34. Hysterical!!!!!

I just LOVE watching a guy attack the frontrunner as "unelectable" when he himself supports a candidate polling at about 3% in every state except his own.

Comical!!!!!

[Bombtrack]

38. can you identify where I called Dean unelectable

and while your at it showcase a credible political scientist or electoral school of thought in which a candidates primary dominance parallels in any way a general election upperhand?

By your genious logic, McCain would have been a far weaker candidate against Gore than Bush was. Right or Wrong, is that what you beleive?

[AWD]

40. Hint...

...when you try to call somebody a genius, try to spell it right.

It helps with credibility.

[AWD]

42. Well, let's see....

"can you identify where I called Dean unelectable"

Words in italics are yours.....

He comes from arguably the most stereotypically left wing state.

Did you say this because you think he's electable?

He has little to no foriegn policy or armed services credentials.

Did you say this because you think he's electable?

His claim of being a fiscal conservative is not backed up by his platform(deficit-hawk would be the truthful discription).

Did you say this because you think he's electable?

Very very few NRA-supporting voters are likely to agree with more than Bush on other issues(particularly civil unions).

Did you say this because you think he's electable?

More crucial urban support would likely be lost than longshot rural support gained from his gun position.

Did you say this because you think he's electable?

And frankly to the majority of independant, and probably ALL voters, he is much, much, less likable than any almost any candidate including Bush.

Did you say this because you think he's electable?

His arrogance is only rivaled by Kerry, yet his testiness is unmatched.

Did you say this because you think he's electable?

And voters will almost always go with the more optimistic party and/or candidate.

Did you say this because you think he's electable?

[Bombtrack]

44. he is the LEAST electable serious candidate

Dean could pull off a victory, ONLY if a monumental shift in social and economic public opinion occurs, coming from or accompanied by a second recession(which is highly unlikely) a watergate-like corruption scandal giving way to a MAINSTREAM call for impeachment/censure etc, a complete lack of any improvement whatsoever of the situation in Iraq and the middle-east overall, which according to the timetable are all unlikely.

So basically his campaign relies most on, perhaps soley on, what's intrinsically bad for america

[AWD]

47. Uncle Karl thanks you

Take the next logical step...join the right wing.

Your tirades are old, boring, full of arrogance and incompetence. Your polisci prof (if you actually do have one) should fail you for ignoring stats and facts due to favoritism.

In the meantime, try to find what scandals, economic failures and nuclear attacks it would take to get your 3% candidate elected.

[wyldwolf]

5. Demographically Dean...

Clark receives more support than Dean among both men and women, his margin over Dean among women is just 3 points (16 percent to 13 percent), but an impressive 12 points among men (29 percent to 17 percent).

He also beats Dean in every region of the country, but especially in the South (25 percent to 8 percent).

Among low income voters (less than $20,000), Clark beats Dean by 26 percent to 5 percent. In fact, Clark bests Dean in every income group up to $75,000. Above $75,000, Dean edges Clark, 26 percent to 25 percent.

Clark will sweep the south.

[jumptheshadow]

9. The low income voters

That fascinates me.

The question is: Will either Clark or Dean be able to generate the turnout that Dems need from low-income voters in order to prevail in the swing states?

My second question is: Why do low-income voters favor Clark? Is it the Clinton connection, the military experience, the Southern affiliation?

My third question is: Will Dean be able to expand his brilliant primary campaign infrastructure into the general election?

I am thrilled by his fundraising techniques but am concerned about a few potential problems: 1) There will be relatively little time for the general election campaign. Is Dean creating a long-term strategy to address the very different issues that would arise during that campaign? 2) How will his supporters react if he takes a turn to the right? (I can envision a "Draft Wesley" vs. "Hired by Wesley" situation happening.) 3) Will the DLC group, whose logistical support he needs, embrace him given the fact that he has been running against them?

[wyldwolf]

13. The low income voters...

Why do low-income voters favor Clark? Is it the Clinton connection, the military experience, the Southern affiliation?

All of the above and more. The military is comprised of many many people from low income families - there to get job experience and college money. Without the military, many low income families wouldn't be able to afford college.

This same point ties directly in with many African Americans as well.

[Bombtrack]

20. to answer your questions

You can't rely on low-income voters to win a national election in any large way. However Clark or Edwards would be the best choice in this area because unlike Dean and Kerry, who are silver-spoon yalies, low-income voters will have a visceral relatability to them and will therefor be more passionate about them, when they start to pay attention in large numbers

secondly, see my first response

third, very very, doubtfully. Dean's appeal is more narrow than his supporters would like to believe. You can have a big PRIMARY movement with a narrow appeal in a nation of 280 million. His supporters almost to a man, hate the war, hate Bush, believe Dean's self-proclamation that he is a shoot-from-the-hip straight-talker, believe that he's the only candidate who is a "real democrat", and ignore his inconsistensies and his being extremely political(I.E. dancing around the truth).

And fourth, Dean isn't running against the DLC. This is a ploy to exploit the false dark-horse, david vs goliath image he has been riding on all along. SOME operatives affiliated with DLC have made some offenses about him, but mostly it's been all sorts of concerned democrats, mostly traditional mainstream dems who've expressed there well-founded doubts about his general election potential.

It's all conspiracy nonsense. Dean's campaign would have you believe that the DLC is an autocratic, Freemason-like control group that may or may not be controlled by the GOP. When anybody with any insight would realize it's a PR-driven, idea-based, non-committal think tank. Of which up until he was out of office ago Dean was proudly a member. And according to his continued insistance that he is a fiscal conservative and a centrist, he would still share a philosophy with.

[tedoll78]

23. I appreciate..

your generalizations about Dean's supporters. Very intelligent.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

25. "Dean's appeal is more narrow than his supporters would like to believe"

Yep. But they won't listen.

[Eloriel]

54. Everything I've ever seen you write about Dean

and I mean EVERYthing, is so crashingly, unremittingly WRONG that I despair of the field of political science and especially your wrong-headed professors who lead you down some fantastical garden path.

Add to that, that your ignorance is matched only by your arrogance. I mean, it's really, really an appalling spectacle.

It's also clear that as you've been "following Dean very carefully," you've been consuming wrongheaded and ignorant pronouncements from pundits who are no more insightful than to grab onto the so-called Conventional Wisdom.

CW and its proponents have been as breathatakingly wrong about Dean as you continue to be. But boy, that doesn't stop you from imagining that you (and they) are the holders of the Received Truth on all things Dean. I can't wait for all your fantasies to come crashing down around your head.

Eloriel

[Bombtrack]

56. At least I've tried to be as specific as I could

and adressed individual arguments whenever I could.

I've said what I believe and know about all candidates and I've given reasons for those thoughts and beliefs and what history it's based on.

Frankly nothing you just stated was more than reactionary, although I respect your passion I'm saddened by your childish name-calling.

You called me arrogant and ignorant. There are multitudes of references and facts to base my critiques of candidates or policies or campaigns. But you don't know almost anything about me.

What is CW?

[ibegurpard]

63. A definite added plus to Dean winning the nomination

would be witnessing the gnashing of teeth of some people on this board.

[Bombtrack]

17. You're exaggerating about Clark but you're right.

If anybody thinks any democrat would sweep the south, they're
nuts.

However Clark does have among the best chance(after Edwards I
think) of getting some key states to split the south. But
PERHAPS more importantly he would force the GOP to work and
spend in all different parts of the south(and rural america),
resources which otherwise would be diverted to more liberal
areas of the country. See Dukakis as the LAST example. He
wasn't crushed as a percentage of the vote, but he was
electorally. This is because the GOP correctly wrote off the
south and concentrated on the west, midwest(particularly lower
midwest) and part of the northeast.

And Dean would absolutly be destroyed in the south(much more
than Kerry would) making almost every state excluding maybe
vermont and Rhode Island, a potential GOP pickup. INCLUDING
California, INCLUDING New York, INCLUDING Massachusetts. His
platform and independant appeal(or lack therof) go that far.

As Far as southern states go, my realm of possibility for the
different candidates in order from tossup to longshot go as
follows

 Edwards         Clark          Kerry 
 Florida 27      Florida 27     Florida 27(with Graham only) 
 N Carolina 15   Arkansas 6     W. Virginia
 W. Virginia 5   W. Virginia 5
 Tennessee 11    Louisisiana 9
 Virginia 13     Tennessee 11
 S. Carolina 8   N. Carolina 15
 Louisiana 9     Georgia 15
 Georgia `15

If either Clark or Edwards were to win All of there states
they would probably need each other on there ticket to do it.
That or Graham.

Although as previously stated, just winning one southern state
and making the GOP spend in all others would be a great thing,
a thing we won't get if Dean is the nominee

[Eloriel]

52. Sorry, in national polls we're still at the "name recognition" phase

Or perhaps the "General" in front of his name is an operative factor at this point.

Somehow he's not convincing Iowans or New Hampshireites, is he? Yeah, I know he's not doing much there -- but if he were such a hot political prospect, he'd be doing fabulous there too.

Eloriel

[wyldwolf]

57. Sorry, the national polls prove you wrong...

There is little indication of any "name recognition" factor accept in the Harris poll. If this were the case, Lieberman would lead in all polls.

And, if you'll look at the national polls, "General" isn't used in referring to Clark

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Remember, Pat Buchanan and John McCain won New Hampshire. Where are they now? They weren't the nominee...

So that point is really moot.

[tedoll78]

8. I have a polysci B.A., so I must be an expert too!

(sorry.. feeling snarky this morning)

I think several things contribute to his electability.

First, there's a definite trend with his ability to bring new people into the process. New people at MeetUps, thousands of new people giving for their first times to a campaign, etc. If this pattern holds, turnout on our side could rise significantly. Right now, it looks like the country is back on its way to 50-50 Red-Blue. If even a measly 3% more show-up to the polls to vote for Dean, that equates to at least 3 million more voters going into our column. Pretty statistically significant when we're in an otherwise 50-50 situation, (or even 52-48).

The thing to look for is the IA and NH events: if turnout in those places rises significantly, and if those turnouts are linked to Dean victories, the next step of the increased participation pattern is fulfilled, and we can verify that Dean is indeed onto something with turnout.

Another thing to consider: at this point in 1999, many polls had Al Gore behind Bush by as much as 10%. Considering that Dean is behind Bush by 5% in Zogby's last poll (he's tied for most electable, I might add), he's in comparatively good shape. And while this may be my own judgement here, I'm much more confident in his team to run a good campaign than I was with Gore's team.

Guns killed Gore in 2000. They made swing states closer than they should've been. Dean won't have that issue, which means he could gain significantly in union households (which are heavier in swing states).

The Greens will be more willing to vote strategically in the next election. Particularly the ones in the swing states. I'm betting that their vote won't be half of what they got in 2000, which will help in states like Oregon & Wisconsin. Nader himself has said that he's weighing a Dean or Kucinich nomination in his decision to run as a Green, which has to count for something among their party's rank-and-file.

{And while this could apply to any candidate, I'm very pleased about George Soros and Americans Coming Together putting-up $75 million to boost turnout in 19 crucial states. That'll free-up some of the candidate's money to combat Bush on television.}

Finally, Dean's record as a governor has been truly centrist. He signed into law personal income tax cuts amounting to about a 30% reduction overall, the progressives ran a candidate against him, some of his fiercest legislative fights were with his own party, the balanced budgets, the NRA.. he has a lot of material to move to the center with, and frankly, I think many DLCers dislike him for his style but secretly like him for his policies.

[jumptheshadow]

14. Great post

Very nicely put together. Thank you.

[tedoll78]

15. Thanks!

Dean needs to address electability more explicitly. Give some numbers, tell how the electoral votes will add-up. He has plenty of evidence to cite when arguing for his electability, and I wish he'd make his case more clear.

[wyldwolf]

19. Well, I don't have a polysci B.A., but do have campaign experience...

First, there's a definite trend with his ability to bring new people into the process. New people at MeetUps, thousands of new people giving for their first times to a campaign, etc. If this pattern holds, turnout on our side could rise significantly. Right now, it looks like the country is back on its way to 50-50 Red-Blue. If even a measly 3% more show-up to the polls to vote for Dean, that equates to at least 3 million more voters going into our column. Pretty statistically significant when we're in an otherwise 50-50 situation, (or even 52-48).

Look at this practically. Despite Deans's incredible grassroots efforts, he hasn't pulled away from the pack. He is tied with Gephardt in NH and losing the South. In national polls, he either is tied or is second as the democratic choice whereas several months ago he was on top consitantly.

This doesn't sound like a growing campaign but rather one that has leveled out in light of growing competition. It worked like a charm for while but the demographics in the primary states (southerners, men, low income families, african americans) have leveled the field.

As for the rest of your post, relying on one poll (Zogby) gives a skewed impression.

Dean's record as Governor was centrist - but his supporters have painted him as a far left anti-war liberal. This isn't the label he needs. Many independent and moderate voters feel the same way about the far left as they do the far right. He will have to shed that to contend.

Majorities of likely Democratic voters in three states with early primaries or caucuses say they prefer a presidential nominee who supported military action against Iraq but criticized President Bush for failing to assemble international support over a candidate who opposed military action from the beginning, according to new polls conducted by the liberal Democracy Corps.

The polls, taken in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, also show a Democratic electorate sharply divided over Bush's request for $87 billion to fund military and reconstruction efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan over the next year. Congress is preparing to vote on the president's request this week.

The findings in the new polls suggest that the divisions over Iraq within the party are less clear-cut than some strategists and candidates believe, or that support for U.S. action to remove former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein from power is a serious handicap in the battle for the Democratic nomination.

Democrats surveyed in the three states also listed foreign policy and national security experience as the most important attribute they are looking for in selecting a nominee. They rated that characteristic over such other choices as experience in Congress, being a decorated combat veteran, being a Washington outsider or having a blue-collar background.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38335-2003Oct16.html

[tedoll78]

21. Correction:

I've met a good number of Dean's supporters, and they know very well that he's a moderate-left who was anti-"this war." If you were to poll his supporters, I'd be willing to bet that they know that he has significant moderate tendencies.

And pretty much everyone is leveled right now. No one is "soaring" in the polls right now. By the soaring criterion, I should be skeptical about all of the candidates.

And very convenient, you ignore the moderate credentials I list..

[wyldwolf]

28. Wasn't a matter of convenience...

..just irrelevant, considering I know Dean's moderate credentials.

But since this discourse has moved into "personal opinion and experience" territory, I'll give mine.

I've worked on two state level campaigns.
I'm the media representative for a very large Democratic organization in the south.

People I know within the Democratic party - like one of the officers of Fulton County's/Atlanta's democratic party - is under the impression Dean is the next best thing to Ralph Nader.

Canvassing my district, I hear repeatedly that Dean is a Paul Wellstone liberal.

At both Dean meet-ups I attended in my area, one of the first ones and one of the latest ones, supporters there extolled Dean's "liberal" record. At one event a group denied Dean's "A" rating from the NRA because they simply didn't know about it.

Thread after thread in DU during last spring and summer proclaimed Dean's liberalness. They loved that he stole Wellstone's "Democratic wing" line. Just yesterday, there was a long thread about Dean leading the "liberals" in revolt against the party's moderates.

These are some seriously uninformed people - and it played well for Dean for a while.

But now the public as a whole perceives Dean as far-left, and that will hurt him.

And the fact that the field is level right now shows that Dean's incredible grassroots effort is a non-issue now.

[jumptheshadow]

62. Interesting poll

Thanks for the link. This shows what a ding-dong horse race this primary is.

~ snip ~

In all three states, likely Democratic voters said they preferred a nominee who supports the party's core values and stands up to Bush rather than one who appeals more broadly to independents. Asked whether it was more important to nominate a candidate who stands up for Democratic Party values or one who has the best chance of defeating Bush, Iowa and New Hampshire Democratic voters said electability was more important.

~ snip ~

The article states that core Democratic values as an issue edges out electability in South Carolina, which has a large number of black voters.

Which candidate will Joe Six Pack the primary voter see as representing the party's core values? Dean or Clark? Will they throw their support to Dean because he's a long-time Democrat? Or will they see him primarily as an antiwar candidate? Conversely, will they penalize Clark for his newcomer status? Or will they believe he's better rounded than Dean?

[ShaneGR]

11. In Ohio

There hasn't been any polling yet, but as of now it's a tossup. None of the candidates have been doing any significant campaigning.

As for the general election, five guys can beat Bush in Ohio:

Dean, Clark, Edwards, Gephardt, or Kerry.

[jumptheshadow]

16. It bothers me

It bothers me that so many resources are tied up in New Hampshire and Iowa that the Dem candidates haven't been able to campaign and get extended media exposure in a crucial state like Ohio.

The primary system as it is currently set up bothers me.

[OKNancy]

27. No kidding

But on a selfish level I like it because Oklahoma will get to play a role this year. As you know, Okla, Arizona, SC, Del, etc..will have their primary one week after the New Hampshire primary.

Since all primary states chose delegates proportionately, a big win in South Carolina or Oklahoma could wipe out any lead for the biggest vote getters in Iowa and N.H.

Here are the delegate breakdowns:

total delegates (district +at large + Elected)
Iowa 64
New Hampshire 33
South Carolina 59
Missouri 105
New Mexico 39
Arizona 63
Oklahoma 60

[jumptheshadow]

32. The breakdown

Iowa 64
New Hampshire 33
South Carolina 59
Missouri 105
New Mexico 39
Arizona 63
Oklahoma 60

Missouri is one state where I've resided.

Missouri obviously will go for Gephardt, but in Columbia, KC and St. Louis there will be pockets of support for Dean. Clark's demos will be much more mixed, I think, and split between the liberals and moderate swing voters. I wish I had the poll results there.

In the general election, I think that Missouri will go Dem this time around. The state is always going to be a battleground because of its conflicting demographics: a large group of "swing vote" pragmatic German Americans, a healthy swath of Bible belt, some defense industry outposts AND the liberals in Columbia and in parts of KC, St. Louis. The swing vote is probably pissed at the $87 billion, the Bible belt will vote fundy no matter what and the liberals will for the most part vote ABB. IMO Gephardt and Clark cruise in the general election. Kerry and Dean can win the state, but have to expend resources.

[Padraig18]

29. It bothers me, too.

I live in a state that has over as many delegates as IA and NH combined, but everyone slavers and salivates about those two like they are the be-all and end-all! Ya know, some of us large 'blue states' are tired of being pimped over for IA and NH... :eyes:

[farmbo]

37. Ohio's Dean Org. is focusing on Iowa, NH. If he wins there...

...Ohio will galvanize for him in the March 2 primary.

[Lexingtonian]

18. I wouldn't be optimistic

As Bush keeps on weakening Democrats are starting to move away from the anti-Bush centered approach and its emotionalism. You can see it happening around here; the spikes in polling are encouraging for Dean supporters but I'd worry about where it is in three months on the ground- the staying power looks suspect to me. Dean support in New Hampshire is holding, but that seems unusual when compared to other states.

As for appeal with the Independents/moderates, I just haven't seen the evidence that his positioning with the NRA and such is really bringing them over. It seems like a sales point whose usefulness is greater in the primaries than the general election. My impression so far is that swing voters in swing states find Clark more appealing at the moment.

I think Clinton put his finger on the key element a few days ago: to really win over the swing voters and moderates, the eventual nominee has to be able to project optimism and ability to fully disengage from confrontation. Someone who projects trustworthiness and not the idea of inevitable sacrifice, someone to whom your average voter can entrust all those pesky details and expect good news from.

[dkf]

30. 6 Reasons Why Howard Dean Will Win The General Election

http://home.earthlink.net/~lthieman/howarddean/

Former Governor Howard Dean of Vermont

(November 1, 2003) I have been following the presidential campaign progress of former Vermont Governor Howard Dean ever since Dean won MoveOn.org’s first-ever “national primary” with a whopping 44% of the vote in June of this year. I have become convinced that Dean will not only win the Democratic nomination, but that he will win the general election, too. Let me tell you why.

1) Money: With the New York Times (10/16/03) reporting a $14.8 million take in the third quarter (ending September 30), Dean broke Bill Clinton’s 1995 record of $10.3 million in a single quarter by a Democratic candidate for president in a year before a national election—and Clinton was president at the time and running unopposed.

This puts Dean, at $25.4 million for the year, over $5 million ahead of Kerry, who comes in second in the “money primary.” The difference is, though, that Kerry started big and then dwindled to just $4 million in the third quarter, whereas Dean started slowly, and has developed what Bush Sr. called “the big mo.”

In addition, Dean can go back to the well again and again since the average contribution is less than $100. It’s a source of funding that is unlikely to dry up.

2) Number of Supporters: Early in 2003, Dean and his campaign manager, Joe Trippi, sat down to discuss numbers. They determined how many Dean supporters they would need to have registered on the DeanForAmerica.com website in order to win the general election. They then took that figure and worked backwards, deciding that they would need to have 450,000 registered Dean supporters by September 30, 2003, in order to meet the end figure. The Dean campaign reached that important goal on September 29.

3) Meet Up: Meet Up is an Internet-based organization that allows its members to self-organize. Candidates for office can purchase the services of Meet Up to help in grassroots organizational efforts. Members meet monthly, planning outreach and campaign activities.

As of November 1, Howard Dean had over 131,600 registered Meet Up members. In comparison, 14,500 have registered in support of John Kerry, and Dick Gephardt clocks in at just 511 members.

The Dean Meet Up figures are indicative of a grassroots that feels energized and empowered. Clearly, Howard Dean and his message spark something in people that inspires them to self-organize – in all 50 states and in the District of Columbia. Dean is reaching out to the base, he’s bringing drop-outs back into the political process, and he’s creating interest among newbie activists who have never participated before - and he's using the Internet to start the process.

4) Organization: One of the advantages of running a frugal campaign that is flush with cash is the ability to put paid, professional staffers on the ground in early states. Dean staffers are now placed in 18 states, far beyond what any of the other candidates have been able to do, and essential since the primaries and caucuses are stacked at the front end this year.

5) Polls: In every poll that counts at this time of year – that is the early state-by-state polls, Dean seems to be positioned well. In Iowa, the first caucus state, Dean is in a statistical dead heat with Gephardt. In New Hampshire, Dean has a double-digit lead over the second-place Kerry. In Arizona, Dean has a firm lead over the second-place Wesley Clark. And in Michigan, the most recent poll shows Dean in the lead, with the other three above-mentioned candidates tied for second. Dean has surged into the lead from the back of the pack. No other candidate has achieved this kind of momentum.

6) The GOP Pollsters’ Memo: According to an October 6, 2003, article by Chris Cillizza in Roll Call, GOP pollsters insist that Gov. Howard Dean can beat George W. Bush in the general election.

A memo was circulated recently by a “prominent Republican polling firm” - pollsters Bob Moore and Hans Kaiser of Moore Information. Some of the key arguments follow.

The GOP runs “a serious risk of underestimating” Dean. Cillizza quotes Moore and Kaiser as arguing: "If one makes the case that Bush could be vulnerable to the poofy John Kerry or the scintillating (yawn) Bob Graham, how can anyone write off Howard Dean?"

"The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democrat candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but will not appear threatening to folks in the middle," Moore and Kaiser write. "We are whistling past the graveyard if we think Howard Dean will be a pushover."

"Writing off a candidate like Dean by selectively sorting statistical gobble-de-gook and mixing it into a broth of 'empirical' sociological evidence ignores the political realities of our time," the memo notes.

According to Cillizza, another pollster commented that part of Dean's appeal appears to be stylistic: "There is an element of plain-spoken, Ross Perot style about him."

Cillizza continues: ‘Moore and Kaiser also offer an electoral vote scenario under which Dean could defeat Bush in 2004. They give Dean victories in 23 states (270 electoral votes) and point out that Bush lost all but two - Nevada and West Virginia - in the 2000 presidential election.’

’Moore and Kaiser argue that with Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) not likely to face a top-tier opponent and the "nuclear repository issue still alive and kicking," the Silver State, which Bush won by 20,000 votes in 2000, could easily be carried by the Democratic nominee.’

’Similarly in West Virginia, where Bush won by a surprising 6-point margin in 2000, Moore and Kaiser believe that "Dean's willingness to work with the on gun owners' rights will go a long way to deflecting the 'liberal' charge."’

Cillizza concludes: ‘Officials involved in Bush's re-election campaign as well as several Republican pollsters say they long ago came to the realization that Dean was a political force that needed to be taken seriously.

"The Bush campaign is taking Dean seriously because they think he would do a better job of rallying the Democratic base than some of the other candidates," said one Republican consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "Dean gets their base voters excited."’

http://www.rollcall.com/pub/49_35/news/3120-1.html

And on a final note, this was over at ABCNews – The Note on October 13, 2003.

"But the person who continues to dominate the seven indices of nomination success (money, momentum, money, message, money, media, and money) is the former governor of state with fewer citizens than Westchester County."

That would be Governor Howard Dean.

[Bombtrack]

33. so here is the Dean campaign mindset

the dozens if not hundreds of elite right-wing voices who've expressed there undying hope that Dean is nominee - - they are all using reverse psychology because they really fear him. But the one LEAKED memo expressing a perception of strength from a Dean challenge, that comes out the peak of Dean's surge, that's the gospel truth about what they rally believe.

The democratic base is segmented and diverse. it's about a third to 2/5ths anti-iraq-war, about a third to a quarter on the fence, and about a quarter in support of the war.

Raising income taxes on the middle-class is not the majority opinion. Angry white Yale's are not the dominant group. and really Dean isn't exciting the party base at all based on his campaign's own insistance that he's bringing new people to politcs.

Dean would excite the anti-war, Bush-is-evil bloc, but considering they don't have almost any potential of going the other way, it's rediculous to place more importance of them than white, college educated, middle class, suburban moms and dads who regard themselves as independants- - the people who have for some time, and will for a very long time, decide national elections.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Without Getting Into This Briar Patch

Kerry, Clark, and Edwards are on the the right track in not wanting to repeal the tax cut for the middle class....

I am a self employed business owner.... A one man deal....I have to work three or four months for "free" just to pay my health insurance and taxes....

Sometimes I am sitting on $10,000.00 worth of receivables and have to pray that people pay in a timely manner so I can pay my mortgage....

The candidate who speaks to these issues is the candidate who will win in November....

[NewYorkerfromMass]

41. Dean can forget Nevada because of Yucca Mt.

Still, Dean has been fuzzy and incoherent on some issues... and on an issue important to Nevadans -- the federal government's plan to store high-level nuclear waste in our state -- his past views are troubling. Dean, as governor of Vermont, a state that has a nuclear power plant, urged the federal government to move quickly on selecting Nevada's Yucca Mountain as the sole burial ground for 77,000 tons of high-level nuclear waste.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/editorials/2003/sep/03/515560557.html

[wyldwolf]

43. That is for damn sure...

...only many Dean supporters are either unaware of that or deny it.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

46. and what of other "swing" states? New Mexico, West Virginia...etc?

I made a list the other day- states that Gore won by a percent or less- they were: Iowa, Wisconsin, Oregon, and New Mexico. Can Dean keep these in the D column? Note that Nader had a decidedly negative effect on all these states- especially Oergon where he took 5.1% of the vote.

[Bombtrack]

51. Those exact states along with PA are the GOP's top targets for 04

Somebody like Kerry would have to try hard defend those states while his red-state battleground would consist of NH, NV, MO, OH, WV, AZ, and FL(with Graham as his veep). Dean on the other hand I believe would be easy pickings in the top target states and would be lucky if he could win NY, IL, and CA.

[Eloriel]

50. Here's a link for ya

I think it's a very good piece, kept regularly updated by a supporter:

6 Reasons Why Howard Dean Will Win the General Election
http://home.earthlink.net/~lthieman/howarddean/

And then I'll give you this, from Zogby:

http://www.theunionleader.com/prez_show.html?article=28102
http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/001983.html
Poll puts Dean far
in front of Kerry
Union Leader News

Zogby said Dean swept all demographic categories, leading among all age groups, among union and non-union voters, and among self-described progressives and liberals. He led Kerry 43 percent to 30 percent among Democrats, 35 percent to 11 percent among independents, and 34 percent to 14 percent among moderates.

“This is stunning,” said Zogby. “This qualifies as juggernaut status.”

----------------

And yes, while that's about his polling specifically in New Hampshire, it's indicative of his broad appeal elsewhere too.

Bew sure to check out the Official blog, http://www.blogforamerica.com/ on the left, for links to groups like Repubicans for Dean, and don't miss my new personal favorite (with its must read Home Page), Punx for Dean: http://www.punxfordean.org/index.html

And here's one more little something for ya, a fairly prominent Republican for Dean speaks:

http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/002058.html

Already, hundreds of New Hampshire Republicans have declared their support for Dean. Hilary Cleveland, lifetime Republican activist and wife of former Republican Congressman Jim Cleveland, explained why she is now chair of New Hampshire Republicans for Dean in the Concord Monitor:

"My husband was a Republican congressman. I campaigned for both Bushes. But I've had it with the president's extremism.
"As a lifelong Republican, I am proud to endorse Gov. Howard Dean for president.

"Those words may be surprising to some: I served as the New London co-chair for George W. Bush's 2000 presidential campaign and was the New Hampshire finance chair for the campaign of his father, President George H.W. Bush, in 1980. I have attended three Republican National Conventions and was married to former New Hampshire U.S. congressman James C. Cleveland, a Republican. I would not lightly support a Democrat against President Bush.

But since 2000, President Bush has moved to the extreme right. His views represent only a small minority of our party, much less the nation. Our Republican president is out of step with most Americans on the two most important issues for any president: foreign policy and the economy."



Eloriel

[w4rma]

53. Dean still on top of money race (NDN: "best-run campaign we’ve ever seen")

WASHINGTON, Oct. 1 — In the surreal mind-set of the campaign expectations game, psychology can get twisted at the end of every quarter. Democratic front-runner Howard Dean’s campaign publicly set $15 million as its goal for fund raising for the third quarter, which ended at midnight Tuesday. According to Dean’s Web site he raised $14.8 million, with last-minute contributions still being counted.

DEAN HAD dramatically exceeded fund-raising expectations in the second quarter by collecting $7.6 million. Is his $14.7 million a wee bit of a deflating result for the third quarter? Only if you live on the plane of surreal expectations.

EXTRAORDINARY MONEY MACHINE

Dean’s extraordinary money machine is still far more efficient than anything Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, or the other Democratic contenders have working for them.

Dean is on course to have enough money to air television ads and hire operatives in states where fund-raising laggards may not be able to during the hustle-bustle of primaries that will take place in February and the first week of March.
…
“We do believe it is an important decision that we’re going to have to make, because in the end Bush is just raising this money.... They’re going to raise $200 million and spend it against the Democrats between April and August when we go to the convention.... If we make the decision, it would be to compete with Bush. We’ve already proven that we can compete with the other Democrats.”

Simon Rosenberg, who heads the centrist New Democrat Network, put the Dean bounty in perspective by noting that in a 10-candidate field the former Vermont governor was able to raise 50 percent more than Bill Clinton raised in the best quarter of his 1996 re-election effort. Rosenberg called Dean’s feat “almost miraculous” and added, “We have to recognize that the Dean campaign is the best-run campaign we’ve ever seen.”

Taking the party-wide view, Rosenberg pointed to what almost no one else has noticed: Based on the preliminary estimates for the third quarter, the 10-person Democratic field collectively will have outraised the Bush campaign, an indication of how fired up Democratic donors are.

“If Bush is this supposed fund-raising king, then this so-called ‘weak’ Democratic field — to use Karl Rove’s word — is outraising him,” Rosenberg said.
…
http://www.msnbc.com/news/974339.asp
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=52916

[AWD]

55. Cut that out!!!

Stop saying he'll win!

Don't you know that the world's top people who once passed by a poli sci class on their way to gym are saying that he'll never win California or New York even!

Stop making stuff up when the proof is OUT THERE that he's the reincarnated spirit of George McGovern and Mike Dukakis!

[jumptheshadow]

64. Punx for Dean LOL

~ snip ~

Only 11% (according to our own footwork) of punks at local shows (our neighborhood venues) voted in the last election. That's beyond pathetic. We can't preach about the system and do nothing about it. It's time to get punks registered to vote!

~ snip ~

I'm a Clark lady, but I love the creativity of Dean's campaign.

However, I keep on remembering those thrilling moments after we elected Carter and thought we had revolutionized the system... We had not. We had set ourselves up for a fall. Thank God there is a younger generation and new hope.

[killbotfactory]

66. He has volunteers in every state.

He's a fundraising powerhouse. Raking in almost as much as every other candidate combined in the third quarter.

He has spent a significant amount of money setting up operations in states other than Iowa and NH. He will make Bush work for every state, and if you think he can't handle negative campaigning, check out how he survived the "Take back vermont" movement. Do a google search.