Wesley Clark #1 in South Carolina!!

[Donny247]

The latest ARG poll has Clark at 17% in South Carolina, followed by Edwards at 10%. Up until now, we've been hearing "Sure, he does well nationally, but early states are what matter, and Clark isn't doing too well."
Let's see how the anti-Clark media whores spin this one!

[Donny247]

1. Here's the link

http://americanresearchgroup.com/sc/

[FrenchieCat]

4. He also doing well in Georgia and Alabama and Illinois

And has barely spend a dime! Yet!

http://www.prospect.org/weblog/

Over the past three weeks, Clark has rocketed up to the front of the pack in South Carolina, with 17 percent support, according to a new American Research Group poll.

Edwards has spent $600,000 in ads in the state, but only reached 16 percent support in this poll before dropping back to his current 10 percent. Meanwhile Clark, who has only just begun to fight, has lept ahead of him without any advertising at all. Joe Lieberman, Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean were bunched in statistical third in South Carolina, with 8 percent and 7 percent support.

This means we now have polls showing Clark in the lead in South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, California (PDF File), Illinois (among those closely following the race), Wisconsin and nationwide. He's in second place in Arizona and third in New York, where Dean leads. Dean also leads in New Hampshire, Maryland, Michigan, New Mexico (though this was a pre-Clark poll) and some polls nationwide. He is tied with or in second to Gephardt in Iowa. Gephardt leads in Illinois.

Kerry does not lead anywhere that I've seen -- and if you've seen such a poll, feel free to tell me about it -- though he is in second in New Hampshire. South Carolina was the only state where Edwards was in better than third place. Lieberman is still running a strong second in some states, and leads in Connecticut.

What does all this mean? First, some caveats: the results of each primary or caucus will impact the results of the ones to follow, tough campaigning will knock candidates out of their narrow leads in some states, substantial percentages of voters remain undecided, and there are four months to go before some of these contests take place. So a lot can and will happen.

That said, it's hard not to draw the conclusion from these state polls that Clark is the only one of the candidates banking on making his first strong showing in the Feb. 3 and later primary states who currently looks well positioned to do so, even if he does not yet have state infrastructures and boots on the ground.

[WillyBrandt]

6. Suppose that Clark were a politician in France

How would he do, just purely as a hypothetical. If you made a French carbon copy of the General how would he do?

Some politicians, like Clinton are born naturals that are good anywhere. Others, like Truman, are more fit for their time and land...

[FrenchieCat]

16. He'd be much more popular than here, because they have

real media there. So we wouldn't be reading all about the nonsense we hear about the General everyday. Especially if the current President of France was as inept as Bush and had taken them to war. I remember that's how Charles De Gaulle became President. It's what was required at the time to guide France to a new and better time. However, although De Gaulle is a French Hero, Some of the French are really not too fond of him, in retrospect. If you ask the older folks who experienced him, they have much better feelings about him than the younger people.

because Clark is not an extreme, and appears to have liberal views and policies, he would do well. He is articulate, intelligent, calm and classy. He wears his clothes well, so that a great big plus.

The thing about the French, as you witnessed when Lepin was demonstrated against....is when they get pissed, they get very, very pissed. Since most political leaders remember well the French Revolution and what happened to the French elitist leaders of the time (guillotine)...leaders in France will only go so far.

However, I would say that what the French enjoy most about politics is discussing them in front of a tasty lunch at "Midi" more than anything else. A little sh*t talking from the very arrogant (could that be moi?) with a little wine is a good time to be had by all.

The only other activity that comes close is going to see a great movie; experiencing an excellent vacation; and partying at a wild "Surboom" (super Boom party time).

[FrenchieCat]

17. Background on the French General who became Prez....

Charles de Gaulle -
French general and first president of the Fifth Republic (1958--69), born in Lille, France. He fought in World War 1, and became a strong advocate of mechanized warfare, but his efforts to modernize the French Army made little progress. With the fall of France (Jun 1940), he fled to England to raise the standard of the "Free French', and entered Paris at the head of one of the earliest liberation forces (Aug 1944). He became head of the provisional government, then withdrew to the political sidelines. Following the troubles in North Africa he became prime minister (1958), and emerged as the one man able to inspire confidence after the postwar procession of indecisive leaders. In late 1958 he became president, and practised a high-handed yet extremely successful foreign policy, repeatedly surviving political crises by the lavish use of the referendum. Independence was granted to all French African colonies (1959--60), and Algeria became independent (1962). He developed an independent French nuclear deterrent, signed a historic reconciliation treaty with West Germany, and blocked Britain's entry into the European Economic Community. He had an overwhelming victory in the 1968 election, after the "student revolution', but in 1969 resigned after the defeat of his referendum proposals for Senate and regional reforms. He then retired to Colombey-les-Deux-Eglises

[WillyBrandt]

19. Thanks

Very interesting.

Suppose right after leaving the White House, Clinton went to France, got naturalized, etc. Could he be a successful politician there?

[FrenchieCat]

27. That might be pushing it......

But they might make him into a movie star....lord knows they could use some help in that department.....Gerpardieu, although talented, is hard to take in large doses.

[HFishbine]

13. Nationally

Clark Slips, Now Tied With Dean for First Place
Gephardt, Lieberman, Kerry close behind

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031028.asp

[wyldwolf]

14. yep! So despite Deans super duper grassroots campaign and all that money

..he still can only manage a tie.

[HFishbine]

20. Is it over?

Did I miss something?

[RevolutionStartsNow]

21. Yeah...

you missed this particular poster in every thread spouting the same nonsense about how "Dean's grand campaign" (sometimes referred to as "Deans' glorious grassroots campaign", which I am thinking of sending to DFA to use on the Blog because it sounds so neato) has taken Dean as far as he's going to go. It's cute.

[wyldwolf]

23. It's also true..

Before Clark entered, the only candidates that mattered, other than Dean, was Kerry and Gephardt.

With Kerry being labled "another Massachusetts liberal," and Gephardt portrayed as a retread, it wasn't difficult for an outsider to cut through it and rise to the top. Dean could have done that without the grassroots campaign - though not as quick.

When Clark, a candidate with true broadbased support, entered the race, it slowed Dean's momentum. So, that is the perspective. An angry Washington outsider with tremedous grassroots support but limited broad appeal meets a candidate with tremendous broad appeal.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

24. LOL copy and paste much?

You said that already! :)

And I will reserve judgement on where Clark and his "tremendous broad appeal" are going after he's been in the race for more than a month or even 2. I expect him to continue to do well, actually, but don't count out Kerry or Gep or even Edwards yet.

[wyldwolf]

25. What does that matter?

If I have to relay the same information more than once, "copy and paste" is a quick way to do it.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

28. Sorry, it was just funny...

I read it just moments before, that's why. No big deal.

Like I said, get back to me in a month or so about momentum.

[HFishbine]

29. He Slowed Dean's Momentum?

Looks more to me like somebody slowed Clark's momentum.

Dean
-----
Oct 24-26: 16%
Oct 10-12: 13%
Oct 6-8: 16%
Sep 19-21: 13%

Clark
-----
Oct 24-26: 15%
Oct 10-12: 18%
Oct 6-8: 21%
Sep 19-21: 22%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031028.asp

[wyldwolf]

31. yes he did..

As Dean supporters are so fond of pointing out, Dean went from Kucinich-type numbers to the front runner. But with a candidate now competeting with broad appeal, Dean can't break away.

Go here:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

See Dean's rise up until the point Clark enters. See Dean level off.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

36. Stay tuned....

Clark leveled off as well from his initial huge burst, according to your link. I would cite where he has actually dipped in the polls, but that wouldn't take into account the MOEs and so wouldn't be fair or accurate. :)

So let's just say that it remains to be seen where Clark's numbers will go. Dean is holding steady, which is fine with me.

Yes, Clark coming in has slowed Dean's outrageous momentum -- he could not have continued to gain support at the same pace, not with so many candidates in the race, including a popular new one like Clark. This is fine. Dean raced to the head of the class, and I expect him to stay there.

[wyldwolf]

37. Actually he could have continued at that pace...

...if the only ones he was competing with were Kerry, Gephardt, and Edwards. Dean could have walked away with it (and crashed and burned in the general election.)

Now he has a competitor with credentials that is to die for - politically speaking.

[RandomUser]

38. I think so, too

After all, I was a Dean backer before Clark entered. :)

[Carolina]

41. Gephardt is worse than a retread

I'll never forget that photo-op of him shoulder-to-shoulder with Bush in the Rose Garden showing his support for the war against Iraq. And now, he's given the administration another blank check with his 'aye' vote for the $87 billion. He couldn't retain his leadership position among House Wimpocrats and he'll never lead the party to victory against Bush.

While Kerry and Dean still matter, I totally agree: Clark is "a candidate with tremendous broad appeal" which means he can WIN.

[jumptheshadow]

39. Great link

Thanks. So the NY polls currently break down like this:

Undecided 23 (23)
Dean 18 (13)
Lieberman 16 (23)
Clark 14 (6)
Gephardt 10 (8)
Kerry 8 (13)
Sharpton 5 (10)
Edwards 2 (3)
Braun 2 (3)
Kucinich 2 (1)


How interesting. Lieberman, as you noted, is fading; Kerry and Sharpton are both down by five points. Clark and Dean are the two candidates with real momentum. At this stage it looks like this race will be won by either of them.

Just my observation: Dean has had a presence and dynamic, high-profile supporters in NY for some time. Clark still is establishing himself but, as I've said before, I think he will gain and do well state-wide. Western New York is one of those working class areas with lots of vets and soldier families. It's been in deep financial pain and it responds well to politicians who actually visit the area. Clark should spend some time there.

The upscale NY suburbs to the North will trend toward Dean, I think, while Long Island will split among Dean, Clark and Lieberman.

In the city the vote might boil down to endorsements by unions and minority politicians.

[RandomUser]

42. Interesting

It appears the undecided is still a fairly substantial category.

[realFedUp]

2. He'll make a good Veep

with a dowry of Southern votes....
:-)

[wyldwolf]

3. If he wins the southern primaries, he'll be the one choosing a VP...

:)

[WillyBrandt]

5. And that's before the dropouts...

It's almost certain more candidates will drop-out. I wouldn't be surprised if Edwards bows out if the news does not improve. And guess which candidate will get his voters?

Wayland Smithers.

No, I mean Clark. :)

[tjdee]

7. News does not improve?

Edwards (at least according to the email his campaign sent me a week ago) is now THIRD in NH, the only one to have moved up other than Dean.

Up until now he was first in SC.

He has a lot of money.

So his news was looking pretty good up until this last poll, and it's still looking a lot better pollwise for him rather than Kucinich and Sharpton--yet I never hear about Kucinich dropping out. :shrug:

It's so frustrating--the media blackout on him is laughable at this point.

[Kahuna]

32. I don't see Sharpton dropping out. That would likely...

help Clark out tremendously. I also don't see Edwards dropping out.

[rucky]

8. Why is he conceding Iowa?

I don't understand this strategy, especially when Dean just may take NH and IA. Even if he doesn't win, he could take away some votes and make those races tighter.

[WillyBrandt]

10. Momentum versus national

At minimum, Wes should have kept his mouth shut. Why say you're not going to contest a state?

The trouble with Iowa is that they are not normal primaries; they are caucases that require lots of effort, time, and money to organize. If it were a matter of merely winning a certain percentage of the IOwa primary vote, I think Clark would have done it.

There are two camps of contenders. Those looking to win a momentum victory, where primary win begets primary win. Dean and Kerry lead this camp, with Gephardt pretending he's in there too.

Then there are those who want a "national" win, to translate national polls into overall primary wins, regardless of the order of victory. Clark is leading this. This was Edwards game, but the fact that he's losing in what should be his strongest early state--South Carolina--looks very, very bad for him.

[Julien Sorel]

34. He had to announce he would drop out.

Otherwise, when he performed poorly there, it would be spun into a disaster.

[Donna Zen]

9. Clark vs bush in Arkansas?

I recently read that Clark is ahead of bush by a wide margin in (Cl)Arkansas. Does anyone have a link for this?

[WillyBrandt]

11. Clarkansas?

Hahah--that's great!

[RandomUser]

12. I like it

Clarkansas! :toast:

[Donna Zen]

15. Me too...me too!

That's why I stole from someone at Clark's web site. I wish I could claim what seems so obvious: Clarkansas.

Now, I back to hunting for the poll.

Oh_btw, CNN just covered the presidential race without once mentioning Clark. Are we surprised yet? They even mentioned SC, but talked about Kerry and the <drumroll> the military vote. Gsheeesh!

[FrenchieCat]

18. They are being paid to ignore Clark's campaign....

Gee, I wonder who's paying them????? The whores!

[Kahuna]

33. Hee hee hee. Another cheers for (Cl)Arkansas.

:yourock:

[IndianaGreen]

22. Does this mean that Edwards is done for?

Should we stick a fork in him to see if he is done? Edwards put a lot of time and effort in neighboring SC. A defeat there would pretty much eliminate him from the race. Of course, a poll is not the same thing as actual primary votes, but it could portend a disaster for the Edwards campaign.

[wyldwolf]

26. Perhaps for this election - if the numbers hold...

...I see a future for Edwards, though.

He'd be a smart VP choice for Dean, Kerry, Gephardt, or Kucinich.

[Kahuna]

30. The anti-Clark media won't mention this poll...

There have been several polls from various that have had Clark either leading or in second or third place. They never mention it. Clark has to mention the polls himself. They will not do it for him.

Notice that the media whores spun all week about Hillary beating the candidates in the Quinnipiac poll with Clark second at ten percent. They never mentioned the same poll that did not include Hillary that had Clark at about 17% and leading the pack. They will do all they can to undermine Clark.

[mot78]

40. The day Drudge and Hannity say something good about Clark

will be when hell freezes over.

[Mz Pip]

35. Clark is fading...

Hah. :-)

MzPip
:dem:

[MoonRiver]

43. Goooooo, Clark!

:kick: