Help me interpret these poll results for Mississippi Governor's Race

[Maddy McCall]

They make little sense to me. Is the first poll result saying that, if you add the percentages of white and black together for each candidate, Democratic incumbent Musgrove is winning? Is this saying that Dems appear to winning in most of the races?

I have little faith in polls, even when they show Dems ahead. But I can't make heads nor tails of this one.

http://www.thejacksonchannel.com/politics/2601553/detail.html

Friday Poll Results
Governor (By Race):


White Voters
Ronnie Musgrove (D) 26%
Haley Barbour (R)8%


Black Voters
Ronnie Musgrove (D) 80%
Haley Barbour (R) 8%


Third Party: white voters 10%, black voters 5%

Unsure: white voters 9%, black voters 8%


Attorney General:


Jim Hood (D) 49%
Scott Newton (R) 24%
Unsure 26%


Attorney General (By Race):


Jim Hood (D) -- White Voters 41%, Black Voters 68%
Scott Newton (R) -- White Voters 33 %, Black Voters 6%
Unsure -- White Voters 26 %, Black Voters 26%

[snippy]

1. There appears to be an error in the % of white voters for Barbour.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Musgrve Only Needs To Get A Little Better Than One Out Of Every Three

White votes to win....

I don't like speaking in "racial" terms but that's the math and challenge...

[Snellius]

3. Why do they break it into black/white but with no total?

Actually nothing in this poll makes much sense.

[CMT]

4. looks like they gave Barbour the same percentage he has

with African-Americans as to white voters. Musgrove is doing well with African-Americans and he needs a heavy turnout to win, but if he is just polling 28% of the white vote he will lose. He needs to win 90% of the African-American vote with a heavy turnout and at least 35% of the white vote to eek out a victory on Tuesday. Let's hope he can.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. How will the press spin it if we lose KY, MS, and LA?

NT

[ramblin_dave]

5. Check these links:

http://www.wlox.com/Global/story.asp?S=1504657

http://www.clarionledger.com/news/0311/01/m03.html

[Maddy McCall]

7. Is 700 voters even an adequate sample size? (statisticians?)

I don't trust polls with such a small sample size, but am glad to see that Musgrove is leading, where Barbour was leading a week ago.

From the Clarion Ledger article:

"The latest poll released Friday shows Musgrove has a slight lead over Barbour. The poll commissioned by WAPT-Channel 16 of Jackson showed 42 percent of the respondents said they'd vote for Musgrove and 41 percent said they'd vote for Barbour. Most of the rest were undecided. The poll of 773 registered voters statewide this week had a 3.5 percent point margin of error."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. If It's Truly A Random And Representative Sample Then It Should Be Fine

NT

Remember their universe is Mississippi not the US not that it makes that big a difference anyway....


I hope Musgrave wins (he's as far right as you can be and still call yourself a Dem) but I'm concerned....

I also want to win KY and LA too...

[Maddy McCall]

9. I do sampling in archaeological statistics...

This just seems like a very small sample size, considering that the universe consists of over 6 million people (state of MS).

Plus, you can't consider it a true sample, because it neglects to account for voters without phones, a substantial number of people in this very poor state.

[TacticalPeek]

10. Every penny that goes into turning out the vote is a cent well spent.

And I'm sorry to say this, and mean no disrespect, but in a barn-burner like this, every Dillon vote is half a vote for Barbour. In a close one, I just can't see it, Barbour is bad for the state and country. National Dems help!

http://www.ronniemusgrove.com/




:kick: :kick: :kick:

[harrison]

11. If I am not mistaken, the last election Ronnie was behind in the polls

and the race ended up in the House. What some pollsters miss is the black vote in the Delta. I don't know why that is, but it happened last time. A heavy black turnout will hopefully see Ronnie through.

[Maddy McCall]

12. Pollsters miss them because MANY of them don't have phones...

impossible to conduct an objective phone poll when you exclude some of the most faithful voters in the Democratic party, just because they can't afford a phone line.

I really believe that we will be able to pull this off--I think Musgrove will win.