Kerry as the mini-Dean

[pruner]

How much trouble in Kerry in?  Here, with credits to CA Poll Junkie's diary of 11/1/03 is how Dean and Kerry compare in the most recent polls in each state.  

Dean is ahead, in many cases by more than the MOE, in every state except Florida (whose primary is 3/9, but under a poll from June of this year), Pennsylania (whose primary is 4/27), New Jersey (whose primary is 6/8), Maine (whose primary is 2/8, where he is tied), and Rhode Island (whose primary is 3/2 where he is tied).  Kerry might hope to win his home state whose primary is 3/2 but has no polling yet.

Iowa (1/19):  Dean 26, Kerry 15

NH (1/27): Dean 37, Kerry 24

AZ (2/3): Dean 19, Kerry 9

Missouri (2/3): Dean 22, Kerry 14

New Mexico (2/3): Dean 18, Kerry 10

South Carolina (2/3):  Dean 7, Kerry 4

Michigan (2/7): Dean 21, Kerry 13

Maine (2/8): Dean 18, Kerry 18

Wisconsin (2/17): Dean 13, Kerry 7

California (3/2): Dean 14, Kerry 9

Connecticut (3/2): Dean 17, Kerry 14

Georgia (3/2): Dean 7.4, Kerry 4.9

Maryland (3/2): Dean 23, Kerry 7

New York (3/2): Dean 18, Kerry 9

Ohio (3/2): Dean 9, Kerry 8

Rhode Island (3/2): Dean 17, Kerry 17

Florida (3/9): Kerry 8; Dean 5

Illinois (3/16): Dean 10, Kerry 8

Pennsylvania (4/27): Kerry 18, Dean not ranked.

North Carolina (5/4): Dean 23, Kerry 17

Alabama (6/1): Dean 5, Kerry not ranked.

New Jersey (6/8): Kerry 14, Dean not ranked.

http://www.dailykos.com/?op=displaystory;sid=2003/11/2/13055/9800

[HFishbine]

1. Point Missed

(First of all, it would be nice to see some links to the polls. I don't ever recall Dean being at 23% in NC.)

The point being made in this analyis is not that Kerry is in big trouble, but that Clark is.
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Another really interesting point about these numbers is that Kerry appears in the polls not as the anti-Dean, but as the mini-Dean. The two men's poll numbers ebb and rise in close step with each other based on local political climates.

Add to this a couple of facts: (1) Kerry's poll numbers were remarkably resilent in the face of Clark's entry into the race, despite conventional wisdom that he would take the biggest hit; (2) the most recent South Carolina poll showed a straight vote trade from Edwards to Clark with very little movement for other candidates.

This leads me to conclude that:

(1) Kerry supporters are overwhelmingly going to break for Dean, when Kerry inevitably drops out.
and
(2) Edwards supporters are overwhemlingly going to break for Clark, when Edwards inevitably drops out.

Since Kerry has more supporters than Edwards in most states, this analysis favors Dean over Clark. This analysis also hurts Gephardt's chances, since it suggests that his base is different from the Dean-Kerry base, or the Clark-Edwards base.

I can't tell you which of the top three candidates (Dean, Clark and Gephardt) are going to get Lieberman supporters, Braun supporters, and Sharpton supporters. (Does Kucinich have any supporters?) But, I can tell you, than unless they swing overwhelmingly to Clark or Gephardt, that this is Dean's race to lose in a way considerably more sure than the polls in the 9 candidate race we have now would indicate.

http://www.dailykos.com/?op=displaystory;sid=2003/11/2/13055/9800

(mods: not copyrighted)

[DrFunkenstein]

6. I Can Tell You That No Kerry Supporters I Know

Will break for Dean. I'd say in general that we like Edwards particularly, and feel positive towards Clark. After months of Dean's nastiness and even worse from his zealots, I seriously doubt we will go to him before anyone except Lieberman.

<>

Mini-Dean? Dean looks like the Mini-me in this picture.

[DemBones DemBones]

2. Mini-Dean? That picture of Kerry towering over Dean is

in my head now! The one where Kerry has a hand on Dean's shoulder and Dean looks like a little kid. If the tallest guy always wins, it's Kerry for sure. But is that supposed to apply in primaries or only general elections?

[JohnKleeb]

3. Kerry is Lincoln's height FYI

Can I ask someone? how tall is Dean? Just curious guys, you know I dont give a damn but if hes 5'8 I think I am gonna laugh, no not at Dean but at some of his supporters who have told me my candiate is too small, because Dennis K is 5'8 as well. None the less I am taller than both of them and no I am not taller than Kerry.

[_Jumper_]

4. I think Dean is 5'8"

But I am not 100% sure.

[JohnKleeb]

9. ok thanks

*does math* lol makes em the same size if you are right.

[sangha]

5. A question

When Lieberman drops out, will his votes go to Dean, or someone else?

When Sharpton drops out, will his votes go to Dean, or someone else?

If and when Edwards drops out, drops out, will his votes go to Dean, or someone else?

If Dean doesn't have a huge lead in delegates going into the convention, and no one gets a majority on the first ballot, and the delegates are not longer obligated to vote for their candidate, do you think those party insiders who become delegates are going to switch to Dean, the guy who's running against the Dems?

Or will they go to the candidate who has the connections in the party?

[welshTerrier2]

7. "Before they Hatch"

that's how i characterize your post ... i hate racehorse politics ... i especially hate them this early in the election season ... fwiw, i'm also sick of the pettiness that most "candidate supporters" and "candidates" have demonstrated ...

wake up democrats ... guess what makes the news ... Kerry called Dean's position blah blah blah ... Dean shot back blah blah blah ... the problem is, that the "democrats message" gets lost among all this noise ... candidates and their supporters need to get their big f**king egos out the way and "ride the wave of a focussed democratic party" ... all candidates need to participate in the crafting of a democratic message ... "here's why our candidates are right for america ... here's exactly what WE would do ... yes, we criticize bush ... but only because what he has done has hurt america ... we have a better plan to solve this country's problems ..."

instead, we're treated to what Dean said about medicare 10 years ago and we're treated to accusations of bush-lite ... ENOUGH ALREADY ... do you people hear yourselves ... you keep this up and we are ALL going to lose ... we'd better find a path to party unity soon ...

i just listened to Carville on the Russert show ... I posted this in another thread but thought it made for some interesting discussion here ...


Carville said that if Kerry or Edwards would stop spending so much time focussing on their IWR votes and started talking about what they would do NOW about Iraq, their campaigns would take off like you wouldn't believe ...

I wonder if he thinks Dean is likely to get caught by one of these two ...

comments ??

[Octafish]

8. Kerry has served this country almost his entire adult life.

John Kerry commanded a US Navy vessel in combat. He volunteered for the most dangerous missions and brought home every man under his command. He was wounded three times in action and received three Purple Hearts, a Bronze Star and a Silver Star for his heroism.

Howard Dean got a note and an X-ray from his orthopedist for a bad back and spent 80 days that winter skiing the moguls in Vale.

John Kerry resigned his commission in the US Navy and helped organize the Vietnam Veterans Against the War, a group instrumental in leading the US Congress to change the nation's direction in Vietnam. For his trouble, Richard Nixon put John Kerry on his "Enemies List."

Howard Dean didn't lift a finger to end the war.

As a Massachusetts State Prosecutor, John Kerry helped put the Mafia's Number 2 guy behind bars for life.

As Vermont Governor, Howard Dean worked to defund the Public Defender's office.

As a US Senator, John Kerry investigated BCCI and the Iran-Contra cocaine connection. For his trouble, Ollie North and the Reagan-Bush White House did all they could to destroy him, actually ordering the FBI to investigate Sen. Kerry.

Dean doesn't even know what BCCI is.

Yeah. Tell me who the mini-man is.

[mitchum]

11. Hell No! We Won't Go! Let's Hit The Snow!

that Howie...

[mitchum]

10. What? Did Sen Kerry have some bones removed from his legs?