What would the Dem EV total be if we got just 1 out of 25 Bush voters?

[TruthIsAll]

This analysis excludes the Nader effect (2.7% of the total vote). If we assume the Dems get even 60% of the Greens, this would win it for them outright, based on 2000 numbers. No switchover from Bush is needed.

If 10% of Bush voters switch to the Dem, add the 124 Electoral votes of the following states to the 267 Gore EV, or 391:

8 ARIZONA
6 ARKANSAS
8 COLORADO
25 FLORIDA
8 LOUISIANA
11 MISSOURI
4 NEVADA
4 NEW HAMPSHIRE
21 OHIO
11 TENNESSEE
13 VIRGINIA
5 WEST VIRGINIA

If 4% of Bush voters switch to the Dem, add the 76 Electoral votes of the following states to the Gore EV, or 343:

25 FLORIDA
11 MISSOURI
4 NEVADA
4 NEW HAMPSHIRE
21 OHIO
11 TENNESSEE

[La_Serpiente]

1. I think libertarians will have a larger influence in this election

they are furious over the deficit spending, war against Iraq, and the Patriot Act. I think they are going to play a serious role in this election.

[kentuck]

2. 1 out of every 25 would be 4%.....

and 4% of 50 million voters would be about 2 million voters, is that correct? Do you really think Bush will lose 1 out of every 25 of his previous voters?

[TruthIsAll]

3. Absolutely. The ex-military alone comprise about 5 million...

and probably 2 million will dump Bush. And what about the moderate Repubs who vow never again to vote for Bush. Probably at least 3 million there.

[dofus]

4. You're being entirely

too sensible and logical.

I think we need to worry more about the many ways the election can be stolen.

If there are no exit polls, we will have no way of knowing if the results we're told are really correct.

Since the state legislatures are actually the mechanism for certifying the state's slate of electors, what's to prevent states with a Republican controlled legislature from certifying the Republican electors, even if the Dem actually won in that state?

And, as we talk about here on DU all the time, how about a nice little Red Alert, especially in key parts of the country, around election day.

Not to mention, the coming campaign is likely to be couched mainly in terms of patriotism -- anyone who opposes the "re-election" of Bush is obviously a traitor.

There are other possibilities. I leave it to your imagination.

[arcos]

5. Your information is outdated...

The number of EV per state is different now... Florida now has 27 instead of 25, for example.

[TruthIsAll]

7. Yes, but very little effect on the total EV...thanks anyway

.

[Old and In the Way]

6. Should factor those that won't vote at all.

I'll bet some who voted for Bush will sit this one out. They may not stand Bush, but aren't ready to cross over....

Conversely, how many apathetic Democrats who were complacent in 2000 will be motivated to vote in 2004?.....at least as many as the Republicans who'll "sit it out".

[TruthIsAll]

8. True. In any case, we win big...sans Diebold

And I have not mentioned the demographics moving to the Dems.

New minority voters (hispanic, asian, etc.) means more Dem voters.

We win with at least 55%.

The landslide cometh from:
Greens
Disaffected conservative Repubs
Libertarians
Military who hate Bush
New Minorities

and energized Dems who are newly registered or sat it out last time..

[bluestateguy]

9. I don't like our chances in Florida

Not with Jeb Bush counting the votes...