Predictions of tomorrow's races

[bluestateguy]

I was dead on in predicting a Davis recall by 55%-45% margin, though I was a little light on Schwarzenegger's margin.

So here we go:

KENTUCKY

Fletcher (R) 55%
Chandler (D) 45%

The corruption from the Patton administration will fuel a "time for a change" calculus for many voters, swinging the bulk of the undecided to Fletcher. On the other hand, I like our chances for winning Fletcher's House seat, where national issues will likely play more prominently.

MISSISSIPPI

Barbour (R) 50%
Musgrove (D) 49%
Others 1%

This race will be close, and Barbour may come in under 50%, throwing the race to the House, which I think would give it to Barbour if he got more votes (still a lot of Dixiecrats there). Musgrove will need a good black turnout, but the last poll I saw had Barbour with 11% of black voters: a bit too high to enable Musgrove to win. That being the case, Musgrove will probably need 30% of the white vote, which could be a reach. This is a race that is certainly within the margin of error, so I could be, and I hope I am, wrong.

PHILADELPHIA

Street (D) 58%
Katz (R) 40%

The FBI bugs at City Hall delivered a crippling blow to Katz. It associated him with the unpopular national Republican Party, which is a no-no in Philadelphia. A Republican win here would actually give them real bragging rights.

[goobergunch]

1. dupe

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=641920

I agree with your analysis, though.

[genius]

2. If we do that badly

the DNC needs new leadership.

[Peace_Place]

4. You think?

1. Lose the Presidency.
2. Lose the midterm elections during a recession? Exactly how does that occur? It is mathematically impossible for that to happen.
3. Recall a sitting Gov.
4. Lose all three Gov races in 2003 (can't happen but neither could 2002 happen)

Terry will never go as long as the Clinton's are running the party. Ever think that maybe this is happening for a purpose? Hillary could save the party in 2008. Could they be using Terry to bring the party down to set themsleves up as savior?

[Peace_Place]

3. KY, MS, LA, Philly

Philly will never elect a Rep...... Street easily

Ky Fletcher 57%
Happy's son 43%

MS Barbour 53%
Musgrove 45%

La Dem 53%
Rep 47%

La might be a strech. I hope it is not a long night as I fear.