The White Flight Suburban Theory

[jiacinto]

In a book I read they argue that the fast growing counties that double their population at first start Republican. Then, over time, they become less Republican as their population grows larger and larger.

Is this theory true?

[leftofthedial]

1. that makes sense

but I don't have any data on it

I can validate the first part of that at least in the fast-growth counties of Colorado, although that has been fueled more by immigration into the state than by white suburban flight.

[jiacinto]

3. Ok

I wonder what they will be like in 30 years.

[Cleita]

2. Why does it have to be a theory?

There are stats out there that can prove or disprove your statement. There is no need for any theory because the past has a record to study.

[Mikimouse]

4. Take look at the shifting demographics

from 60s era Detroit. I believe that it was one of the cities used in the original formulation of the theory. There are statistics ( as observed by a previous poster) available to support, or not, hypotheses that emerge from the main theory.

[tsipple]

5. Yes

Excellent examples are DuPage and Lake counties in Illinois. They're swinging Democratic more and more. They're both big reasons why Illinois as a whole is getting more and more solidly Democratic.

[jiacinto]

6. Ok

I wonder if other counties will be like that.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

7. Much of the growth of the suburbs was fueled by racism

During the 1950s and 1960s, realtors and developers appealed to racism in getting citydwellers to sell their houses ("The 'Negros' are already over on Twentieth Street. Pretty soon, they'll be moving in here on Twenty-Eighth Street") and buy into new developments on the edge of town. To top it off, until the Civil Rights Act passed, many suburbs had "restrictive covenants," which banned the sale of property to non-whites or Jews.

Many of the suburbs built at that time were not particularly well built, so by the 1990s, they were looking pretty seedy and were no longer considered desirable by the most affluent whites. They then became affordable for the less affluent. (That certainly seems to be the case in the Minneapolis area.) I think that this is the point at which they start to lean Democratic.

In Portland, the urban growth boundary has prevented the growth of far-flung suburbs, but in an interesting development, the suburbs have acquired noticeable concentrations of Asians and Latinos.

I think that the people who move to far-flung suburbs and buy trophy houses are the ones who are the most conformist ones, the ones who buy the fantasies of rural life and don't stop to think about how their very presence in their clumps of trophy houses is destroying the rural landscape.

It's not surprising that they vote Republican.

[jiacinto]

8. Ok

I just wonder what the "white flight" counties will be like in 20-30 years.