Question for DU economists?

[ClintonTyree]

Job growth. How are the numbers gathered? Does the government just ask corporations how many they've hired, or is there some statistcal record with hard evidence? Could a company say they hired 20,000 people in the 3rd quarter, even if they didn't, and get away with it? What is the documented proof of job expansion?

[Gin]

1. I'm not an economist...but I play one on TV...my opinion

Just like the stock market..there is a projection...and companies send in numbers to meet or exceed the projection. Manipulation for the home boy!

[Zynx]

EDIT: Double post. Delete.

[Zynx]

2. Okay, I can explain this.

There are two surveys used in the Labor Department survery for the Employment Report.

One is the establishment survey which surveys a huge number of businesses(350,000 or so) of all sizes to see how their employment numbers look. This number is the most accurate and determines the non-farm payrolls figure which is used to measure job creation. These figures are proven be filed tax figures with the DOL. As you may know, employers have to send in tax statements to the government for their employees.

The other is the household survey of 15,000 households used to determine the unemployment figure. This is a horribly inaccurate number and can result in rising and falling unemployment numbers when exactly the opposite is happening. A way to check this is to look at job growth over the last six months. If job growth is not over 500,000, there is no way unemployment has fallen. If job growth is strong and unemployment is rising, it is very strange and needs some kind of investigation. This number can be screwed up because those who are too discouraged to look for a job are not counted as unemployed.

[ClintonTyree]

3. Thanks............

that clears it up. So it IS possible for Bush to fudge the numbers in time for the election, although it can't be perpetuated.

[wtmusic]

4. Good explanation

thanks Zynx!

[papau]

5. Have they not changed seasonal adjustments on the establishment survey?

or is it just the household survey that they are playing games with?

Indeed - where does one find raw numbers on the DOL site?

Indeed the U-6 series unemployment is hard to find on a weekly basis (only the month of Sept is posted)

[9215]

6. Thanks for this. Do you know if military "jobs"

are listed in these figures. I've been wondering about that for awhile.