The average Dem primary voters

[jumptheshadow]

A lot of people I know still haven't made up their minds about which candidate to vote for in the primaries. These are folks who will vote but who aren't activists and aren't as interested in politics as we are. That's probably why Sen. Lieberman still shows up as a genuine contender in some races. It's name recognition only. The other candidates are barely on the radar screen. With the exception of Rock the Vote, the debates have not been optimally scheduled for national exposure. We on DU debate every bit of Democratic Party trivia. To a large extent, however, many of the candidates are still undefined to the general public. They're in the running but have not quite swayed voters yet.

The union endorsements are a major coup for Dean. His overall election strategy so far has been well-crafted. But we're in uncharted waters in the post-9/11 environment. And we still have a horserace on our hands.

[asjr]

1. primary

I am bothered by the DLC. They may have their favorites but it isn't necessarily what the voters want. Dean is correct in trying to win the Southern vote. He will really have to work hard at it. Here in TN people don't know much about him. I think Edwards or Clark could take TN. The union endorsements will certainly help Dean, but there is a certain mindset here in the South that has to be changed. I am afraid that we are back to a "house divided." Dean is trying to be inclusive and I feel the so-called backlash over his remarks about the Confederate flag is being overdone. But, that is politics. I know TN doesn't have that many electoral votes, but I would like to see Dean come to this state as much as he can.

[liberalmike27]

2. Larger Minority Concentration in South

I think a lot of the wait-until-the-last-minute voters will just pick one of the frontrunners, and Dean will be prime there. Besides, we at the meetups are writing to a lot of them to give him name recognition.

In the South, we have an interesting situation. Several Black leaders, including Jessie Jackson Jr. have endorsed Dean as their man to beat. This of course angered Sharpton, so he's attacking Dean, feeling betrayed by Jessie. He knows they compete for the same class of voters, liberals and blacks.

Typically, it is probably true that the blacks will vote for a southern candidate, like Clark or Edwards, just like many of the Whites. Consider what will happen when the higher concentrations of blacks in the South vote in large numbers for Sharpton, or for the recommended Dean. Sharpton and Braun will sap votes away from Clark and Edwards. Dean receiving some of those votes, along with many of us liberal Southernors (not an oxymoron, really we aren't all stupid)will have a pretty good chance for these reasons to win even some Southern candidates. By bringing up the economic message to the poor South, having never quite recovered from the Civil War really, he might even get some of their votes. We can only hope the racism can die, and that some of the poorest Dixie dogs will decide to vote for the party that will help them the most, rather than the party of racism, the republicans.

Anyway, I certainly don't see Dean as a lost cause, and I think he has a wonderful chance of not only winning the 2004 election, but perhaps he can even win a Southern state or two. I'll tell you how he won't win the South, is if he ignores the South in his campaign.

[jumptheshadow]

4. The economic message and poor white voters

Have there been any local candidates (Senate, Governor) who have managed to build an alliance in the South between blacks and poor whites by crafting an effective message about common economic interests?

[jumptheshadow]

3. How unionized is Tennessee?

Will the union endorsements help Dean much there?

Will there need to be a southerner somewhere on the ticket in the general election in order for the state to swing Democratic?

[mmonk]

5. union endorsements won't help in the south

[asjr]

6. dean

We do have union supporters here. A union endorsement certainly will help Dean, but he must come here. I feel he has a real message to everyone. Loss of jobs here is critical and an economic message will sway many voters. If he works it right his not being a Southerner won't matter. He may not make much headway in East TN as they have been diehard Repubs for many years, but in Middle Tennessee were are much more open-minded. I am not denigrating East TN at all--I was born there, nevertheless they are Repubs. I am an out and out Deanie and I really think he is right for us. He may be an "in your face" candidate, but at this stage we need that sort of thing. Outright honesty will get me every time.

[LeahMira]

7. Isn't that tokenism?

Will there need to be a southerner somewhere on the ticket in the general election in order for the state to swing Democratic?

I think that might be perceived as throwing them a bone... a fairly meaningless kind of bone.

It couldn't hurt, but I think that poor people everywhere need to understand how a Republican vote is a vote against their own best interests.

Let's face it... this isn't a black v. white issue or a south v. "New England elite" issue. This country is in a rich v. poor battle, and since I'm in the same boat with blacks and hispanics and all those minority groups, i.e. I'm poor and getting poorer, I'm voting Democratic.

[jumptheshadow]

8. How to get the economic message across effectively?

Nobody really seems to have done a good job of it yet.

We are more starkly divided than ever. Personally I know many people who are in dire economic pain and many people who have money to burn. I get dozens of unsolicited resumes a week. The economy and job market seem to be in an uptick. It's probably illusory but will it be enough for the Bushistas to go on the counterattack against us? When will people start placing the blame where it belongs?